Heads up hand

[Jesus Lederer]

full tilt poker Game #893554884: $20 + $1 Heads Up Sit & Go (5987204), Table 1 - 10/20 - No Limit Hold'em - 17:53:26 ET - 2006/08/13
Seat 1: pokerpub (1,430)
Seat 2: Jesus Lederer (1,570)
pokerpub posts the small blind of 10
Jesus Lederer posts the big blind of 20
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Jesus Lederer [As Ks]
pokerpub raises to 60
Jesus Lederer raises to 180
pokerpub raises to 1,430, and is all in

This was the 4th hand, and in the first 3 nothing interesting happened. So i have no reads. Call or fold?

Call: I have the chance of winning right now. I have a monster, but i know that against any pocket pair it´s a coinflip. I think that a pocket pair is by far his most possible holding, but it´s very unlikely that he has AA or KK (going all in like that would be completely missing their value). Now what are the hands that i may be ahead? I don´t know how much should i consider hands like Ax or KQ. I put it around the same percentage of time that i´m against AA/KK. With the information i have i think that if i call i´ll be around 70% of the time facing a coinflip. What percentage should i give to AA/KK and Ax/KQ? I´m not sure, so i´ll say 15%/15%.

Fold: If i fold i´ll have $1390 with 10/20 blinds. It would be like starting a new match, with the chance of getting reads and waiting for a better spot to outplay him or make a big move on a situation where i know i have a good advantage.

Should i consider taking a coinflip in this scenario? Remember that it´s very important that the blinds are low.
If your answer is no, with how much chips advantage are you willing to take a coinflip?

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

I vote call and gamboool.

Seriously, from what limited knowledge I have of the low lim HU tourneys, they're donk-filled. A random donk's range here is pretty large, and I think we're ahead of it.

If he has AA/KK, he's playing it pretty badly as he's getting no value with his huge overbet push except in those cases where you have a monster too.

I think we see AQ/AJ/KQ or even two random cards (seriously, I've seen people do this before with J4 sooted etc) often enough here to make calling worthwhile.

 

[Four Dogs]

I'm with Chris. I can't let AK go heads-up. But some deliberation is in order. First off, while you are most likely up against some sort of pocket pair, I wouldn't give AA and KK too much consideration. Like you, I think something weaker is more likely. I might make an all-in with AA or KK 20 or 30 hands in after I've established a pattern of aggression, but early on it's too likely to scare away the opposition. I wouldn't give eather of those hands more than 10% combined, especially considering that you are holding one of each. I'd have to say that the likelyhood of a lower pair is about 50%. I'd give 30% to AK through AT, and 10% to some donk move like Ax or a stone bluff. So, by my numbers your 90% a coin toss or better. I'm not sure you'd get better odds slogging it out over 80 hands. I vote for the call.

 

[Alon Ipser]

I'm going against DM and 4 dogs. I have always considered H/U to be a game of strategy. Trying to get reads on your opponent and making some misleading plays early to trap later.

If he has AA/KK, you are behind and he is probably not a good player as he has misplayed them and you should be able to beat him later with good play.

If he has the Ax or KQ or worse then again a poor play and should be able to be beaten later with your good play.

If it's a pocket pair then it's a coin flip and I don't see taking the gamble when it could be one of the other combinations. The game is still early and there's a lot of game to play yet

 

[Dingodaddy23]

yeah dude just fold it, you're probably ahead here a lot of the time and never any worse than a coinflip, but even against 2 random cards you aren't that big of a favorite, you really put it all on AK vs J10 that early when its clear that he's a donkey if he's pushing like that. You're still the favorite to win the match, once you figure out how he's playing (reads)

 

[Kenzie 96]

Knowledge is power. $20 buyin I lay it down. I have no problem with Chris & 4Dogs reasoning but as well as you play the the longer the game goes on the better your chances.

 

[tenbob]

Knowledge is power. $20 buyin I lay it down. I have no problem with Chris & 4Dogs reasoning but as well as you play the the longer the game goes on the better your chances.

Buy in shouldnt come into to it Kenzie. Esp is your rolled for the game.

Im not laying down a top 5 hand HU, you need to be 80% sure that hes playing a pair, and even then its only a coinflip.

It comes down to playing styles in the end of the day. I can lay down AK against multiple player PF as good as any of us, HU i dont think so. So where do you draw the line in the sand. AQ ? AJ ? 88 ? 22 ? Would you lay down JJ in the same situation ?

My style of playing HU is extremly aggressively, i want to force my opponent to start making plays like this. Cant really fault the laydown either though, it comes down to how strong your play is. But folding this hand lays down a marker for the game IMO, if i come over the top of someone with a re-raise, then ill contuinally do it, because i know it works.

 

[ChuckTs]

First off I want to say that I really don't put OP on a pair bigger than TT. He just wouldn't push in this situation because there's no value in that, so we can safely assume that AA and KK are out of the question, as you noted, JL.

So here's my attempt (after muchos inspiration from HoH vol 2 ) at looking at the math:
(I'm sure I'll get something wrong, so please let me know if I do, or if you think my estimates with hand selection are off)

Case 1 (he holds a pocket pair):
I think %70 is a good estimate of OP holding a pocket pair. You're a 55:45 (%45 equity) underdog vs a lower pair.

Case 2 (he has a big ace or king and is semi-bluffing):
This is unlikely for two reasons: one, you're holding both an ace and a king which makes it less likely he has either, and two, he's less likely to make this play unless he's a maniac. If he's a maniac, you'd probably have realized by now even though it's only 4 hands into the tourney, and you could also lean way more towards calling here. (actually, AK and AQ aren't terrible hands to make a play with here since you have fold equity vs similar hands, and dominate anything but a pair).
We'll say that OP makes this move %20 of the time, leaving the minimum (as suggested by harrington) that he bluffs %10 of the time.
Your equity for the possible hands an average online player will make this move with are:

AK: %50
AQ: %74
AJ: %74
AT: %73
KQ: %74
avg = %69
(though it's actually larger since AK, the % that drops your equity the most, is also the one that's most unlikely since you hold 2 of the 8 cards needed for that hand.)

Case 3 (he is bluffing with undercards):
Unlikely, but after reading HoH, it's said that you should give a minimum of %10 to account for a bluff in every hand. It could also be upped a little considering this is online, but this situation is vs an unknown player who we have no reads on, and you've shown strength, so I think it's safe to say that the minimum, %10, is a safe percent to peg him on.
You're ~%65 vs two lower cards.

Average equity
= [(0.70*0.45)+(0.20*0.69)+(0.10*0.65)]/3
= ~%17.4 (or 4.75:1, pretty poor)

and the pot odds don't compensate for it (1610:1430=1.13:1)....hmmm...just messing around with numbers here (which i'm sure are way off )...so here's an attempt with EV to see if it's a profitable call...though I don't see why it would be with odds that poor. Again - jump in if you see me doing something wrong here which I'm sure I am...

EV in each of the above cases:

Case 1:
you call, and win: 0.70*0.45*2860 = 900.9
you call, and lose: 0.70*0.55*(-1250) = -481.25
you fold: -180
total: 239.65

Case 2:
you call, and win: 0.20*0.69*2860 = 394.68
you call, and lose: 0.20*0.31*(-1250) = -77.5
you fold: -180
total: 137.18

Case 3:
you call, and win: 0.10*0.65*2860 = 185.9
you call, and lose: 0.10*0.35*(-1250) = -43.75
you fold: -180
total: -37.85

Total expectation: +338.98 chips

...so our EV is positive, and significantly, but our pot odds say fold.

Anybody????

I know I screwed up somewhere....


Putting all the mumbo-jumbo aside, I think you're getting bad odds, but I think I'm leaning towards calling by factoring in the time issue that FP has brought up a couple times (the fact that poker is not only an investment of money, but time, and you can immediately find another HU tourney to play if you lose, or add a nice winrate from the tourney if you win).
Not only that, but I really don't see him making an all in with anything above TT like I said, and therefore your chances are pretty good that you're facing at worst a smaller pair for a coinflip situation.


wow....what a ramble :/ sorry folks, just getting deep into HoH vol2 like I said, and it's taking it's toll on me with analytical thinking...

 

[Alon Ipser]

Putting all the mumbo-jumbo aside, I think you're getting bad odds, but I think I'm leaning towards calling by factoring in the time issue that FP has brought up a couple times (the fact that poker is not only an investment of money, but time, and you can immediately find another HU tourney to play if you lose, or add a nice winrate from the tourney if you win).

I think you need to consider that the win rate for H/U is more important than win rate for SnGs. 50% win rate in H/U and you're losing money when you figure buy in. 50% win rate in SnGs and you're making money. I think you need to invest the time in a H/U.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Winrate is generally not expressed as a percentage, and so I'm having trouble understanding what you mean. 50% of what, exactly?

 

[Alon Ipser]

Winrate is generally not expressed as a percentage, and so I'm having trouble understanding what you mean. 50% of what, exactly?

Sorry, should have said winning percentage. My point was it is not as easy to make up a loss in H/U as it is in an SnG. In an SnG, you can take a chance early in the game because the pay out is more in the end.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Ah, okies, it's clearer now, ta.

 

[Four Dogs]

Jesus, how did this turn out?

 

[Kenzie 96]

Buy in shouldnt come into to it Kenzie. Esp is your rolled for the game.

Im not laying down a top 5 hand HU, you need to be 80% sure that hes playing a pair, and even then its only a coinflip.

It comes down to playing styles in the end of the day. I can lay down AK against multiple player PF as good as any of us, HU i dont think so. So where do you draw the line in the sand. AQ ? AJ ? 88 ? 22 ? Would you lay down JJ in the same situation ?

My style of playing HU is extremly aggressively, i want to force my opponent to start making plays like this. Cant really fault the laydown either though, it comes down to how strong your play is. But folding this hand lays down a marker for the game IMO, if i come over the top of someone with a re-raise, then ill contuinally do it, because i know it works.

You are right about about the buyin level. I disagree about this laying down a marker though. I am making a specific decision at a specific time for a specific reason.

 

[Threesixes]

I make the call. Heads up I think theres a good chance you have him dominated. If not then I suspect its a coinflip which doesnt bother me too much.

 

[Jesus Lederer]

Jesus, how did this turn out?

I called and he showed QQ.

 

[Four Dogs]

I called and he showed QQ.

And it held up.

 

[Jesus Lederer]

And it held up.

Yes, but don´t think i´m results oriented, because it had been long time since i had a doubt about what to do on that heads up coinflip situation, so when this perfect real situation came, i thought about posting it even if i folded (because i almost chose that option).

Thanks all for the replies. Before this thread i understimated the chances of my opponent holding Ax/Kx, which was the main cause of my big doubt, but now that i analyse it again i think that calling was the best option........but wait, i lost?.....oh, then clearly folding was the best option.