did he make a boat?

[thebigeasy59]

I have a lag image, this guy has not played many hands so far. I think it's easy to tell that he has the 8, the only kickers he should have are A, 9, or 7 (88 is unlikely).

pokerstars Game #12119903383: Tournament #61160720, $0.25+$0.00 Hold'em No Limit
- Level II (15/30) - 2007/09/17 - 22:19:44 (ET)
Table '61160720 53' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: jrd02 (1470 in chips)
Seat 2: thebigeasy59 (1380 in chips)
Seat 3: groundfx (1690 in chips) out of hand (moved from another table into
small blind)
Seat 4: rpm122 (2180 in chips)
Seat 5: moneywins (3090 in chips)
Seat 6: babysnake1 (2400 in chips)
Seat 7: Hype0230 (1305 in chips)
Seat 8: booh777 (1535 in chips)
Seat 9: neya2006 (1640 in chips)
rpm122: posts small blind 15
moneywins: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to thebigeasy59 [Jc Qc]
babysnake1: folds
Hype0230: folds
booh777: folds
neya2006: calls 30
jrd02: calls 30
thebigeasy59: raises 90 to 120
rpm122: folds
moneywins: folds
neya2006: calls 90
jrd02: calls 90
*** FLOP *** [8s 8d Th]
neya2006: checks
jrd02: checks
thebigeasy59: bets 240
neya2006: folds
jrd02: calls 240
*** TURN *** [8s 8d Th] [5h]
jrd02: checks
thebigeasy59: checks
*** RIVER *** [8s 8d Th 5h] [9s]
jrd02: bets 480
thebigeasy59: ??????

 

[Tammy]

What could he have called pre-flop with? 10/8? 9/8? 5/8??? Not likely. I say you have to call here.

Wait. Is this really a 25 cent buy-in? In that case, he may very well have called with any one of those hands...

 

[royalburrito24]

at this point you really have to go on feel. chances are the player was most likely not sophisticated enough to check that turn so I think you got this in the bag, but to be on the safe side if the person was capable of making a sophisticated play, just call and show down....but i think you have this one in the bag...

unless you prove me wrong

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

He's got the set. Most likely A8. Hit it hard.

 

[Flops'm&Bets'm]

I put the guy on Pkt. 9's since you bet the flop and he flat called you.
checked the turn thinking you have top 2pr (10's & 8's)
Turn shows nothing interesting to both,
River Big bet..9-9

Although it is Level II he may not be betting ALL-IN
for fear that you have 10-10
..since you raised pre-flop.

So you risk 3/4 your stack to call with the nut straight.
No Flush possible...
Villian has either 9-9 or same hand as you Q-9.
Since the buy-in @ $0.25 and the Pot odds to call
I would say make the call to see where he's at.
If he only has a set then good. If it's Q-9 split-pot. If he has 6-7 you got him over.
My estimates are the he missed entirely and is trying a Bluff Bet
I have played in those $0.25 Tourneys
and usually when a player has some investment into the pot,
and has bunk and the turn got checked..
..they come out with a 500-ish bet..and from my experience someone pushing a
500+ bet in the early stages of the Tournament,
tells me they are bluffing to buy the pot.
6/10x anyhow. You call, You still have chips at a low level blind.
You Win you are the new chip leader at the table G2G!! ^^^^^^Shippppppittt^^^^^!!!

 

[thebigeasy59]

I thought about it for a while, and eventually made the flat call. He turned over 89 for about the 6th cooler I took all day long.

 

[maltz]

For that cheap price you have to call. He can have a lot of hands inferior to yours, knowing that you might be weak (by checking the Turn).

 

[joeeagles]

That's just a cooler, as you say. This is a call you have to make for several reasons, folding is out of question this early in the tournament. This pot was raised PF, and not many hands make sense for a FH besides PP's. I know it's a 25c donkament so anything can be, but still you have to call, there are just too many hands that could make that bet on the river with a pair on the board and your check on the turn. All I can say is you showed good discipline in just calling and not going broke on this hand. It left you with only 540, but that's better than broke.

Perhaps the big mistake was calling the flop bet. In principle, it's ok to make the raise PF in position and try to get the dead money, but pot went 3-way even with the raise and with QJo you should just fold his 240 flop bet even if you think he's doing it with air. It's just not worth it to get further involved with your hand, you're just digging a deeper hole, and you did notice that villain had not played a lot hands so far. The simple fact he bet out on the flop rather than giving you a chance to c-bet should raise a red flag that you're likely drawing to 4 outs only, so just get out of there.