Hand analysis - Folding the set ?

[jeffred1111]

Friendly home game (tournament) heads up. I have around 11.000 chips and my opponent around 9.000. Blinds are 100-200 and I am dealt pocket 5's. I raise to 700 and my opponent quiclky calls.

Flop comes 5s9hQc. I check the flop, opponent bets to 600. I raise back to 1800 and he shoves. Now there's no draws unless he holds something like 6-7 and he is not the type of guy to call raise in the big blind heads up with such a hand. Now, he has been smooth calling my raises a lot with pockets, but I don't know heads up: the only hands that he will reraise are premium pockets (JJ and up) or A-K, A-Q suited. Opponent has been very weary of me trapping him by checkraising and thus I've done it a lot, even with marginal hands (middle pairs, etc.).

I know that the chances of him having a set over set are slim, but his 600 bet has been used to intice me into calling before. Do you call his shove, since this is a winner takes all game ?

 

[joosebuck]

with that kind of read and with stacks as deep as they are, you can make the argument for letting this go, and going back to thefting his blinds & c/ring him on the flop.

 

[jeffred1111]

with that kind of read and with stacks as deep as they are, you can make the argument for letting this go, and going back to thefting his blinds & c/ring him on the flop.

I agree that folding is an option here, but there isn't a lot of outs that can improve his hand (2 outs on overpairs for trips or 2 outs for the board to trip on 9's or Q's for a higher full house if he has >5 pp). Unless he already has me beat, don't you think that calling his all-in here is pretty much a must ? The 6-7 or 6-8 hand actually has 2 more outs, but I don't see him doing so.

Smells to me like someone getting caught with a smallish bet trying to get me to fold or call and then buy the pot with a sizeable bet on the turn (this has worked before when I only had a middle pair). He probably didn't expect a c-raise on the flop, since I've been raising pretty much all my hands on the button and doesn't know I have trips or he just figures that I'm using my c-raise again to steal his c-bet + blinds. Whta is surprising is that I've never seen this guy go all-in EVER (I've played maybe 150-200 hands with him) unless he was very shortstacked, and then it was preflop or on the river.

Also, with a M of 3 if I call and lose (1000 chips), I still stand a small chance of winning this if I double up two times in a row, something that can and will happen heads-up so I guess calling is my option. Reads are nice and all, but I can't ask for a better chance to stack my opponent right there: I was laying a trap and he went into it, now I have to complete the deal, even if it means losing.

 

[joosebuck]

700 preflop. 1800 postflop. 11k total chips. should leave you wil more than 1000.. if i missed something on the chipcounts then this is an easy call.

 

[jeffred1111]

Yeah, had a brain fart there

 

[joeeagles]

I think you need to call this Jeff, a set over set on HU is something so rare that it's crazy, you have to be ahead here. As far as draws I think you're missing JT as a possibility (actually its much more likely than the 67 or 68 you're suggesting).

As far as him reraising all-in there are many hands that would make him do that, especially HU. Plus you say you've been check/raising alot.

Calling here is definitely a must and if he does have a higher set you are tremendously unlucky and can't blame yourself, this just wasn't your match.

 

[ChuckTs]

HU, I can't possibly fold a set unless we're like 50K deep. That was just a random guess, but really unless we're super deep stacked, we can't fold a set on this board.

 

[jeffred1111]

Thanks all. Was 99% sure that calling was the only option there, but I hesitated at the table and called anyway. He had A-Q for a pair and was not expecting trips at all. Turn and river were an Ace and a 4 giving me the win.

Just wanted to know if there could be an argument made to fold this. Probably not, but joose made a good case: with the reads I had and that he knew I had, he probably played it to freeze me up.