Hand analysis

[Mib3653]

Knocked out in 25 of 900 at MSPT Main Event. Had 1.2M chips, about 2x average stack and I’m in the big blind (20K chips). Button has 750K chips and raises to 45K (first to act). I have JQ off and call. Flop comes Q83 rainbow. I move all in and get called by QK off. Down to 500K. How do I play this to avoid that big of a loss?

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Standard defend.

Flop
Assuming a BB ante, which is normal in live MTTs, pot is now 120k, and he have 705k left behind. When you go all-in, its a massive overbet of almost 6 times the pot, and this force him to pretty much always have a better hand, when he call. Instead you should check-call and make some decisions on later streets. You will still lose a big pot, because he basically coolered you, but maybe you dont need to dubble him up. On some runouts you can get away on the turn or river, especially if he play for stacks. Or maybe he does some pot control and dont play for stacks. Like if an A or 8 peels on the turn, that might slow him down, so you can get to a cheaper showdown.

 

[Mib3653]

Thank you. Certainly an option, but I was pushing him off an A or K. Not sure I have the discipline not to raise a cbet from him. But good food for thought.

 

[mara2259]

The closer to the end of the tournament, the lower the requirements for starting hands. Your call is beyond doubt. Now postflop. If you really thought your hand was strong (which is far from the case given the kicker) then you should have thought about drawing hands like AK, Ax, Kx or small pairs. Instead, you tried to push him out of the game all-in by giving pot odds that make calling almost inevitable. By checking you would either minimize your loss or fold when you felt something was wrong.

 

[dallam]

Thank you for posting.

This is very late of a serious MTT, so people probably acting more carefully. Having said that, KQo is still a very great starting hand from BTN, and yours is totally fine to defend. I would mention that both of you have a great stack not to put the biggest effort on this party if it's not going to hit you. So you actually not need to overplay this combination by saying all-in and targetting all of your opponents better hands.

As the opponent have the privilage to acting in position, there are several cards which could slow down this party on turn maybe river, and it won't harm your stack as you did. Running into a runner A or K and defeat by them is better than already put yourself under the bus. There could be also some value of semi-bluffs or bluffs here, and opp may will do them, or putting a one last try which could be callable. Obviously a big determination of this pot definitely puts you in a spot, where you call or fold, and you may can, or the action won't get to the maximum loss.

 

[fundiver199]

Running into a runner A or K and defeat by them is better than already put yourself under the bus.

Exactly. We cant be that obsessed with "protection", that we pile in all the chips on the flop for a massive overbet just to avoid getting drawn out on. Even if we have the nuts, which was not the case here, such a line is losing out on to much value in the long run. There is no situation, where its ever correct to do this.

 

[puzzlefish]

If you look around at how others go out of the game, there are a lot of cooler type hands. This is no different. You get a top pair and your villain gets that same top pair with a slightly better kicker. The trick is do not get married to your top pair, especially when your kicker isn't that great. You have a lot of chips in your stack and you can pick better spots to stack off than this.

 

[fundiver199]

You have a lot of chips in your stack and you can pick better spots to stack off than this.

And a better line. If Hero had check-called, and the Villain continued to fire on all 3 streets, then calling down on a safe runout would not be totally crazy. The difference is, that by taking such a line we keep the opponents bluffing range alive, so that sometimes we will get to showdown against complete air. Whereas when Hero donk shove the flop, he pretty much force Villain to always have a better hand, when he call.

 

[dreamer13]

Analyzing your hands (and your opponents' hands) is by far the best way to improve your game, because it allows you to find your leaks and learn from your own mistakes. This means that you can change the decisions you make at the poker tables and finally achieve good results that will bring you victory. You will not be able to understand what to change unless you analyze your hands to see where exactly you are wrong (or vice versa)! Most people do not analyze their hands at all and do not try to find leaks. And it's just crazy if you set out to become a very successful poker player.Use statistics gathering software if you play online poker. If you are an online player, then you need to use poker software such as PokerTracker or Hold'em Manager. These programs record the history of every hand you play and then let you review them step by step whenever you want. They also provide you with a lot of specific data and statistics about you and your opponents.

 

[eetenor]

Knocked out in 25 of 900 at MSPT Main Event. Had 1.2M chips, about 2x average stack and I’m in the big blind (20K chips). Button has 750K chips and raises to 45K (first to act). I have JQ off and call. Flop comes Q83 rainbow. I move all in and get called by QK off. Down to 500K. How do I play this to avoid that big of a loss?

So to clarify you went out with 25 left- you decided to flip vs another large stack

We want to be thinking about several things-
1 Range- V=illain can have AA KK QQ seldom AQ KQ 88 33 for better hands but what calls a shove on a rainbow unconnected board that is worse?
2

 

[eetenor]

Computer issue stopped me from finishing point 2----ICM we do not at this point in the tournament want to risk our stack without a very strong hand and in this spot QJ top pair is not that hand

 

[rastapapolos]

You have to put your opponent on a range. there are a lot of hands that beat you on this type of board AQ, KQ, KK, AA, Q8, Q3, 88, 33.
Once you have a Q it's less that Villain has one, to get the information you should check-raise the flop. If Villain calls, He has something, If he raises you're behind, If he folds well done. You could also play it passive to keep the pot small by calling down to river.
If you go allin you'll be called only by better hands at this stage of tournament.
If villain has an AK you're ahead 76% of times, 3 times you win and 1 time you loose, so better maximize your ev.