End game of MTT bottom pair on flop

[Irexes]

19 left of 220.

Table is pretty tight at the moment and villain hasn't done anything of note 18 vpip 11 pfr over 34 hands.

What's the move and why????

***** Hand History for Game 6535089600 *****
NL Texas Hold'em Trny:36860511 Level:11 Blinds-Antes(1,000/2,000 -75) - Sunday, November 25, 16:48:36 ET 2007
Table Regular (1233570) Table #1 (real money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: Renkieee ( 33,945 )
Seat 2: mrsmugface ( 26,725 )
Seat 3: sdrltd55111 ( 33,935 )
Seat 4: romybomb ( 31,185 )
Seat 5: Irexes ( 11,300 )
Seat 6: marioanfi ( 24,970 )
Seat 7: mads21ern ( 13,365 )
Seat 8: Gompen_ ( 8,265 )
Seat 9: Marreka ( 13,880 )
Seat 10: menno501 ( 53,705 )
Trny:36860511 Level:11
Blinds-Antes(1,000/2,000 -75)
Renkieee posts ante [75]
mrsmugface posts ante [75]
sdrltd55111 posts ante [75]
romybomb posts ante [75]
Irexes posts ante [75]
marioanfi posts ante [75]
mads21ern posts ante [75]
Gompen_ posts ante [75]
Marreka posts ante [75]
menno501 posts ante [75]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Irexes [ 9d 5h ]
marioanfi folds
mads21ern folds
Gompen_ folds
Marreka folds
menno501 folds
Renkieee calls [2,000]
mrsmugface folds
sdrltd55111 folds
romybomb folds
Irexes checks
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9c, As, Js ]
Irexes checks
Renkieee bets [10,000]

 

[ChuckTs]

I hate these spots but I'm usually folding here unless I've got reason to believe he's capable of bluffing. Even then he's probably bluffing with KT or KQ type hands and we're not much of a favourite.

No FE, marginal hand, TAG sticking us in when we're rarely a favourite (aside from vs 66 which is not very likely IMO)...I'm tossing this. I'll be M-master Harrington would say to shove the flop or call this though. Still, I'd rather shove 95o next hand than call here.

 

[dj11]

With an 'M' of less than 4, there is no fold equity regardless of your holdings, so that doesn't even come into play here.

You have to fold to the overcards here, and pray you get better cards to start with.

LOL, you really should have folded the bb..........

I think you will be better off waiting to choose one of the next 9 hands. Better than feeling like you have to do anything with these cards not of your choosing. Seems simple that of the next 9 hands, you will find cards better than these.

 

[NineLions]

I can't see much reason for calling this as Chuck says.

Unless there is some reason to think that he's doing this to buy the pot (and maybe his choice of bet sizing is an indication, but I wouldn't think so) with 2 overcards would he be doing this with a lower pocket pair after your check?


Maybe if you think he's TAG and would only open limp middle pairs from mid position, and your check indicates you missed the flop ... but that's a tenuous line of reasoning for your tourney life.d

 

[OzExorcist]

I can't see villain bluffing often enough for this to be profitable - look at it from their point of view: if they get called on a bluff here then they've lost a bit over a third of their stack and they'll be well into the danger zone. Is this villain going to take that risk? Some players might roll this way, but in the absence of any such read I'd be inclined to think they've at least got a jack, if not an ace.

I'd fold and look for a better opportunity to open-shove.

 

[Irexes]

Ok, here's the relevant information,

- 19 left of 220.
- Table is pretty tight at the moment and villain hasn't done anything of note 18 vpip 11 pfr over 34 hands.
- My stack 9,300
- His stack 31945
- The pot 15750 (I stand to win 15050)
- My cards 95o
- The flop AsJs9

First, why has he limped?

Two reasons,

a) he's playing a drawing hand he's not prepared to raise with (22-99,Axs, suited connectors, KQ, KJ)
b) he's got a big hand and he wants value from it (TT-AA, AK).

Given his stats it appears he raises when he has something and isn't particularly tricky. Without further information I'm going to assume he's in the much bigger group of players who's range is (a) when they limp here.

I check the blind and check the flop - how does this affect his thinking.

Assuming he's at least semi-decent this indicates to him that I had nothing of note preflop. The means my range should be such that if I've connected with the flop I've not slumdunked it. 99, AJ, AK, AQ should all be unlikely. A9 is about the only thing that makes sense if I've hit hard.

If I've hit it a little bit Jx Ax 9x or a lot of draws then the usual play (particularly given my stack) is to bet here.

Because I check the flop he can reasonably assume I've missed it (not only because of my range, but because I'm missing two out of three whatever I have).

Why has he bet 10,000 and put me all in to call?

If he's hit the flop what does he bet?

With Ax I think he bets weaker (5000 is pot sized), hoping to induce a call from me or a desperation reraise all in.

With Jx (and only KJs and JQs make much sense) then perhaps 10k is the bet, but much more common to see a smaller bet 3000-5000.

9x? Probably not as A9 surely checks or bets small.

So given his preflop range this leaves 22-88 (and maybe TT) and a bunch of suited connectors and some higher gappers (JQs and KJs) draws like KQ or QTs.

The psychology of his bet is simple, what would I have checked preflop and checked on the flop that I will call an all in with? Nothing really.

(if the flop was 894 or similar, then it's a whole different matter as my preflop check could have come up with two pair easily causing me to check and induce a bet).

I think if he is a decent player he bets here with some confidence with air a huge % of the time. Given my stack it is completely appropriate to put me to a decision for my tourney life and typing 10,000 rather than moving the slider all the way to the top reinforces that he has done this consciously.

As far as I'm concerned it's all a pretty clear indicator that he's missed the flop but thinks I have as well.

So I called.

He turned 22 and the 9 held up.


He could of course have had JQ Ax etc a lot of the time but I've a chance to more than double my chips here and I feel I am ahead waaaay more than 50% of the time and am unlikely to get more than a 50% chance to more than double if I fold.

This is all very specific play to the latter stages of tournies but I think it is exactly the kind of situation where the texture of this specific flop (combined with some data) let me make some pretty educated guesses on my opponent's hand.

I'm not advocating crying calls late in MTTs but I do think you can pick some bluffs (though he must have thought he was ahead here) with bottom pair in the right circumstances.

 

[ChuckTs]

Interesting analysis, Rex.

A couple notes:
Wouldn't 77+ probably raise preflop? I'd think that even with smaller pairs he'd be more inclined to raise and take down the blinds then face an ugly flop like this.

Also I think if a 'scared' hand like deuces are sticking you in on this flop that something like A9 would too, no?

Nice analysis of his line and the situation overall; I think reads come into play heavily here. Just at a glance, vs a nitty player like that it should seem standard to check-fold; the only thing that kept me interested in calling was my stack size. You made a pretty good argument for why we're ahead here though.

 

[Irexes]

Interesting analysis, Rex.

A couple notes:
Wouldn't 77+ probably raise preflop? I'd think that even with smaller pairs he'd be more inclined to raise and

Yes, in fact there's not many hands you are behind here that a tight player wouldn't raise preflop, all of which makes the call more appealing.

the a) list above is what I think he might limp with, and of course a good chunk of it he would raisewith as well.

 

[Egon Towst]

Good analysis, Rex.

I said "call" (before I read the rest of the thread).

I didn`t analyse it as deeply as you did, I must admit. Being a simple fellow, I just figured his bet size (from a player I gather you read as tight and not tricksy) says he doesn`t want a call. Therefore call.

 

[Irexes]

I just figured his bet size (from a player I gather you read as tight and not tricksy) says he doesn`t want a call. Therefore call.

Very true and said with far fewer words

 

[ChuckTs]

Another thing to note is the flush draw possibility. I guess suited hands don't fit that well into his PF line, though are still possible.

 

[NineLions]

I check the blind and check the flop - how does this affect his thinking.

Assuming he's at least semi-decent this indicates to him that I had nothing of note preflop. The means my range should be such that if I've connected with the flop I've not slumdunked it. 99, AJ, AK, AQ should all be unlikely. A9 is about the only thing that makes sense if I've hit hard.

If I've hit it a little bit Jx Ax 9x or a lot of draws then the usual play (particularly given my stack) is to bet here.

Hmm, so does this imply that you checked specifically because you wanted to induce a bluff/stab at the pot? With that flop are you thinking, I'm getting my stack in here so what's the best method of getting his chips in too, or are you folding to a 5,000 bet (what you expected from Ax)?

 

[Irexes]

Hmm, so does this imply that you checked specifically because you wanted to induce a bluff/stab at the pot? With that flop are you thinking, I'm getting my stack in here so what's the best method of getting his chips in too, or are you folding to a 5,000 bet (what you expected from Ax)?

I checked with the intention of folding to a bet and hoping for check from him and the miracle 9

However the 10k bet looked so suspicious (exactly as Egon said) that I paused and started thinking.

I used up my clock thinking through a lot of the above and came to the conclusion that I was probably ahead, I couldn't make his bet mean anything else.

I'd have probably folded in a heartbeat to a bet of 3000-5000k

 

[the4th20]

I'd say its a fold for sure you got bottom pair with a bad kicker in a tight table the guy probably is trying to protect is jacks and seeing where you by betting into you you gotta fold it.

 

[Kajagugu]

He could have anything. He could be over-betting for value. I would read this as a bet that doesn't want to get called and thinking you missed the flop. But it could have happened with a Jack. I don't think I make that play with 22 though. Good call.

 

[jaymfc]

I can't add anything here , many good answers already. I would have folded knowing he was bluffing ,except for the short stack where I have to race soon, may as well jump in with any part of flop. as you did .

the over bet does show he wants no call, but it doesn't take a good player to know that a good player will recognize an over bet as weakness and may call for that reason . reverse psychology works too.