$Freeroll NLHE MTT: To triple barrel or not

J

Jamuka7657

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I decided to double barrel post flop with a straight draw. Didn't make the draw but hit top pair with a weak kicker on the river and was unsure whether to fire a third bet.


Blinds are 200/400 with 50 Ante

Relevant stack sizes

Hero(BTN): 78.07 BBs
SB: 44.17 BBs

Hero is dealt :qd4::6s4:

Preflop: Folds to Hero, Hero raises 2.5 BBs, SB calls

Flop(pot is 7 BBs):7s4::5c4::4c4:
SB checks, Hero bets 4.25 BBs, SB calls.

Turn(15.5 BBs):9s4:
SB checks, Hero bets 11.625 BBs, SB calls.

River(38.75 BBs):qh4:
SB checks, Hero ???
 
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Madsaac

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Maybe, the SB will be committing a large portion of her stack if she calls your bet. What part of her range will she call your bet. Will she call with a busted draw, nines or sevens or she thinks your bluffing.
If stacks were deeper than yes.
 
Luvepoker

Luvepoker

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I would not bet on this river. The player has called you twice already and has something at the very least or a busted draw. You know you have a hand that can win and when you really look at how this hand went down what hands would they call you with that will give you value? To be honest if they have a pair of 9's on this board will they call the river? Probably not. If they are going to call its with 2 pair, set or even a straight on this board. I would just check behind here. You most likely will win a pot that would not get a call and lose more chips if they have you beat.
 
fa1920

fa1920

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Definitely the hand is check, many times you will get paid to the river with better hands, and try to get value to a 7 with a kicker as bad as it is the 6, I do not see anything profitable
 
C

cgcook38

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With no other information about the opponent and based on the type of tournament, I am going to go against the grain here and say I would go ahead and fire that shot. (I might not if the next blind jump was particularly high - like 400/800)

Here are some scenarios:
1) yes, opponent maybe and is likely on a draw. I would say this is most often the case. If it’s the club draw you are only concerned with QJc and QTc, probably. Q9c probably gets it all in on the turn. For straights, it’s only Q8 that you’re worried about. So on a rare occasion you’re beat at the end by the Q that calls you. So most of the time your bet is returned, and sometimes you get a river call and lose. If this is the only scenario, than a check is automatic.

2) The opponent may have had a pair already, but they also hit their queen at the end. This will happen and that sucks. You make a bet at the end and double up the opponent, leaving you w ~34bb left. Still a playable stack, but nerves are up for sure. This is very rare!

3) The opponent had a hand so strong they check called until the river and knew you would value bet on the end. I have no idea what that might be - exactly a straight with clubs? I think everything else would have check raised or used stop-and-go by now.

4) The opponent hit two pair on the turn and is hoping you’ll check the river for the same reason you’re thinking of checking the river. They have showdown value but played scared on the turn because draws, man. This is worst case scenario for you, as it’s the most likely way you’re called and lose should you bet.

5) The opponent hit a pair either w x9 of clubs or some not so great pair on the flop. They want to get to showdown with their hand. Besides the missed draw, this seems the most likely the way based on how the hand has been played.

I bookended the scenarios with the most likely events and this is why you should go all in here.

Most of the time, in my opinion, the opponent will either fold, or they will call and lose. You have to risk 25.795 BB to find out. You’re going to lose the money in the pot either way when they’ve got you.

Maximize pressure on your opponents at this stage of the game. Ensure the other players know your serious about taking all their chips - either by getting called and felting someone w a Q6, or by mucking your “monster” hand after the opponent folds. On rare occasions you’ll be forced to show a loser and battle back from 33bb. Small price to pay.
 
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Pablo22

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I would think a small value bet would be ok there, because you probably took the lead on the river.
 
Psyanide14

Psyanide14

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Hard to say. freerolls player could be calling with anything. Much harder to get a read. You have good showdown value and I would check here. He may have been drawing too and will fold. If he made two pair he would call and have you beat. Probably he would have bet river with a Q.
 
Ryan Laplante

Ryan Laplante

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Definitely betting this river card for around 60% pot. We have the best hand almost always, and will get called by worse. If I get raised I would fold.
 
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