$Freeroll NLHE MTT: Set vs Raise All-in

[Dzob]

What do you think - when an opponent raises all-in on the turn in this hand, how often will he have nuts? Is it possible to fold the set when the opponent raises?

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - 25/50 - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

dzob_killer (UTG): 3,445 (69 bb)
Renake1980 (UTG+1): 1,970 (39 bb)
Deedgee (MP): 2,460 (49 bb)
Risto515 (MP+1): 1,156 (23 bb)
Peppinotom (LP): 1,709 (34 bb)
steve c 8649 (CO): 2,195 (44 bb)
sahkops (BU): 3,210 (64 bb)
AgentXtreme (SB): 1,375 (28 bb)
pepsilv (BB): 1,510 (30 bb)

Pre-Flop: (75) Hero (dzob_killer) is UTG with 9♣ 9♥
dzob_killer (UTG) raises to 150, 5 players fold, sahkops (BU) calls 150, 2 players fold

Flop: (375) K♣ J♦ 6♠ (2 players)
dzob_killer (UTG) bets 113, sahkops (BU) calls 113

Turn: (601) 9♦ (2 players)
dzob_killer (UTG) bets 301, sahkops (BU) raises to 2,947 (all-in), dzob_killer (UTG) calls 2,646

River: (6,495) A♠ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: 6,495

Showdown:
sahkops (BU) shows Q♠ K♠ (a pair of Kings)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 47%, Flop: 92%, Turn: 9%, River: 0%)

dzob_killer (UTG) shows 9♣ 9♥ (three of a kind, Nines)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 53%, Flop: 8%, Turn: 91%, River: 100%)

dzob_killer (UTG) wins 6,495

 

[fundiver199]

I dont think, you can ever fold here for 65BB, and certainly not in a freeroll, where players are typically much more willing to gamble it up, since they have nothing to lose other than their time. You lose to KK, JJ and QT, but KK and JJ should 3-bet preflop, and QT should only be QTs if even that. So he should not have many hands, that beat you here, and if he can have QT, then he can also have KJ, which you beat. Of course if he is bad, he can have more of those 22 combos, that potentially beat you, but then he can also have many other hands as well including but not limited to the one, he actually had.

 

[xrhstos]

It is possible to fold vs a very tight/passive opponent who suddenly decides to shove his stack on the turn.
That's a rare type of player and that's why you shouldn't fold with no such reads.
The only hands that beat you are QT and slowplayed JJ, since KK would always 3bet pre.
You beat all of the two pairs, KQ, 66.
The turn is the 9 of diamonds, which also makes flush draws possible, so your call is even better.

 

[maxivega]

In a Freeroll, it is difficult to take seriously most competitors, they do not lose money and only play to annoy. They are preying on the fears of the other players and bet often with garbage hands. You can only compete when you're near the bubble.

 

[fundiver199]

In a Freeroll, it is difficult to take seriously most competitors, they do not lose money and only play to annoy. They are preying on the fears of the other players and bet often with garbage hands. You can only compete when you're near the bubble.

I dont think, many people play just to annoy others, because if nothing else because of the large fields the average competence level is obviously going to be lower in a freeroll. And people will also tend to take it less seriously, unless you make a real deep run.

This hand is a pretty good example. On the turn KQ might still be the best hand, but by jamming all in Villain made sure, he would only get action, when he was behind. Its called a value bluff, and its something, you want to make sure, you never do, because its pretty bad

 

[wallyworld127]

i have a few questoins/aedvices to give here

Some one had said something about this being a free-roll?... i couldn't find on your post anything about that. That being said with the effective stack sizes the range of hands they will be playing against the utg raise {being a big deal when it comes to this breakdown}the combos of hands drastically diminish. not to say 10 q is completely out but that texture says your getting paid all day when they have a hand that hits that flop. the texture i would think might deture some q 10s from chasing there because some of there outs may be gone// ..imo the turn is almost irrelevant. and the strength of your hand's so much stronger than there range that in the small event hey have the worst case {q 10} you still have outs. Even more over with the flat call for an amount that says he has a decent hand and not a draw. also why he wouldn't he check shove flop in stead of lead shoving turn.. but i suppose people like to take balancing there play a little to seriously. short of this is your are never ever folding here, unless you have just some overwhelming soul read of this guys that says he has the nuts {hell even then im probly not foldeding}. You also have a good bit of outs on him and that is makes up for almost all the exwuity and lost when he has "IT", again a hand that we have already deemed extremly unlikely

 

[marvbake]

What do you think - when an opponent raises all-in on the turn in this hand, how often will he have nuts? Is it possible to fold the set when the opponent raises?

dzob_killer (UTG): 3,445 (69 bb)

sahkops (BU): 3,210 (64 bb)

Pre-Flop: (75) Hero (dzob_killer) is UTG with 9♣ 9♥
dzob_killer (UTG) raises to 150, 5 players fold, sahkops (BU) calls 150, 2 players fold

Flop: (375) K♣ J♦ 6♠ (2 players)
dzob_killer (UTG) bets 113, sahkops (BU) calls 113

Turn: (601) 9♦ (2 players)
dzob_killer (UTG) bets 301, sahkops (BU) raises to 2,947 (all-in), dzob_killer (UTG) calls 2,646

He flatted your UTG 3x bet preflop. He can have KK (unlikely) or JJ. But why didn't he raise the flop? Is he slowplaying?

That turn seems like it helped your opponent out. Well at least that's the story he's trying to tell. QT is the only hand it could have helped that has you beat.

Another thing is he knows you're unlikely to have QT there since you raised UTG.

That turn also puts out alot of combo draws like KdTd, KdQd, JTo, AdTd, AdQd, and 2 pairs such as K9 or J9.

With such a mega raise it doesn't seem like QT or JJ to me. You'd think he'd try to induce more value, not scare you away. It's still possible that he might have it, but I would call because of the amount of other hands you beat in his range.

 

[Jon Poker]

The preflop open is just fine and very standard. The flop goes haywire...

Why are we cbetting this flop? Are you betting for value or a bluff here? If you are betting for value - what worse hands are you trying to get to call you? When you do get called - what's the plan for the turn when it doesnt come a 9?

I would check this flop back 100% of the time. We are lucky our opponent didnt decide to chk/raise us here. When we do make this bet we are only looking to get called by a better hand.

Basically we get lucky on the flop, we get to see a turn and it bails us out. I like the turn bet sizing - the call off when he jams is mandatory at this point and we win the hand a ton of the time. Highly unlikely he plays KK or JJ this way and if he has QT, which would be the most likely of all hands that do beat us - good for him. I'm not folding ever when I can only think of one hand I lose to.

Bad post flop decisions buddy - the two outter bailed you out on the turn - otherwise I would just say you are donating chips 99% of the time here.

 

[fundiver199]

I would check this flop back 100% of the time. We are lucky our opponent didnt decide to chk/raise us here. When we do make this bet we are only looking to get called by a better hand.

I agree. Hero was out of position, but that does not exactly make the C-bet any better. There are two broadway cards on the board, and even if Villain has a hand like AQ, he is still crushing with two overs, a gutshot and position. So we should not even have seen a turn here, but luckily for us we did, and we hit our 2-outer and got paid off in a massive way.

Often times when we get a field caller behind us, we need to play in a more defensive way and give up quite a bit. Its not the same as getting called by BB, and we should view it a little bit like getting 3-bet, where we also dont fight back every single time out of position.

 

[0815am]

I would never fold here vs a raise. He might have some two pair combos, a good king that he overvalues. Or trapped AK type of hand.

Is flop bet size your standard Betsizing. Seems relatively small to me!

 

[frnandoh]

I think theres no higher sets on his range, perhaps two pairs, the nuts, but I wouldnt preview that bluffing with top pair. Even in a single analysis with a strong hand it s not so easy to know if your call is profitable. But undependent the result, yes it is good. Congrats for the good decision.