$Freeroll NLHE MTT: set mining

[tcummo]

full tilt poker Game #30917539990: $100 United Kingdom Freeroll (239871130), Table 36 - 1200/2400 Ante 300 - No Limit Hold'em - 19:19:32 ET - 2011/06/06
Seat 1: fekinel (48,586) this is me
Seat 2: gedmac (127,701)
Seat 3: carlymarieb (73,500)
Seat 4: LiamBeck18 (49,068)
Seat 5: shug-mc (104,136)
Seat 6: IdleMac (58,341)
Seat 9: aancott (30,563)
fekinel antes 300
gedmac antes 300
carlymarieb antes 300
LiamBeck18 antes 300
shug-mc antes 300
IdleMac antes 300
aancott antes 300
gedmac posts the small blind of 1,200
carlymarieb posts the big blind of 2,400
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to fekinel [9h 9c]
LiamBeck18 calls 2,400
shug-mc calls 2,400
IdleMac folds
aancott calls 2,400

we are on the bubble
me to act

am i getting odds to set mine here ?
call/raise or fold ?

 

[Worak]

Any reads ?

Generally speaking you don't get get propper odds to set mine deep in MTTs very often.
We need 12:1 to 20:1 (opponent stack : bet).
Here:
Seat 1: fekinel (48,586) BTN
Seat 2: gedmac (127,701) SB (given he completes) ~53:1
Seat 3: carlymarieb (73,500) BB (given he checks) ~ 31:1
Seat 4: LiamBeck18 (49,068) UTG ~ 20:1
Seat 5: shug-mc (104,136) UTG+1 ~ 43:1
Seat 6: IdleMac (58,341) MP -folded-
Seat 9: aancott (30,563) CO ~ 13:1
Dealt to fekinel [9h 9c]

Potsize is 12600 before you act.
Now my line of thinking would be:

1. 12600 represents about 25% of my stack
2. I want to win this pot
3. SB and BB both have us covered and will be possibly squeezing if we limp / bet small
4. With what are UTG and UTG+1 limping ?
5. This is a freeroll

I can't see anyone exept "maybe" utg limping anything better than 99.
We do have set mining odds BUT if we limp SB or BB are very likely to squeeze-shove.
My line:
Shove pre and either take down the pot or possibly flip for double up / turney life.

 

[tcummo]

hi graf
thanks for the reply m8.
it makes good sense to me.
we're on the bubble tho' so i thought if one of the blinds squeezed
i could get away and wait.
i'll see if anyone else posts any replies.
then post the rest of the hand after the cc ft freeroll tonight.

are you in it m8 ?
ain't checked the players.
good luck if you are.
me and you HU final table,
i win and go top of the freeroll leaderboard.

then i win the lottery 2moro lol.
:beer:

 

[Jillychemung]

IMHO this is a tailor-made bubble spot for you to shove.