$Freeroll NLHE MTT: Opinion on this hand

[300HPGOD]

Looking for opinions on any part of the hand but especially the turn. This was a cardschat freeroll on ACR so I am hoping the villain in this hand sees this and comments on the hand but I am not going to out their name in this thread. Villain runs 25/14/2 over 330 hands

My thoughts on this hand:

Pre flop was obviously an open, at roughly 40 BBs I think 2.5x is fine but thought 3x is a little large for that stack size

Flop: I got donk led into so I immediately thought a one pair hand or maybe even a draw like 78 or even 45 if that would call pre. I thought about raising but I also thought most of villains range is one pair and if I raise here then all worse are folding and only the sets and two pair if any are there call.

Turn: bet by villain was smaller now. I did notice in game 78 got there now but was still not afraid of that yet. I figured with a one pair hand I was only going to realistically get 2 streets so I now decided for a small raise for two reasons. First is value because I think I am still ahead here. Second and less so than first reason is to corner villain into showing what they have now and block them (making it less enticing anyway) to make a large bet on the river which puts me in a tough spot. When I get re raised I am not thinking that villain does this with a one pair hand only so I fold.

Looking back I think maybe just calling turn is better but again I think villain will call a lot of on pair hands to my turn raise where if I just call there they are possibly only checking to me on the river and fold to any bet I would make if I made one. I might have got out played on this one or I was going against something better as I thought in game. Your opinions and thoughts on any part of the hand are welcome. Thanks in advance

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/1q18IG8f

 

[perrywh]

I would think he had ace nine. With top top he thought he was ahead and you had hit a draw so he raised you back. I would have been all in on the flop anyways!

 

[300HPGOD]

I would think he had ace nine. With top top he thought he was ahead and you had hit a draw so he raised you back. I would have been all in on the flop anyways!

You might be right on the A9 as after the fact I do think he might think I am bluffing with the raise. However I dont get the all in on the flop by you. Betting 2100 or so over a bet of 150? This is a freeroll so anything possible but nothing should be calling that bet except the hands that beat me.

 

[perrywh]

You might be right on the A9 as after the fact I do think he might think I am bluffing with the raise. However I dont get the all in on the flop by you. Betting 2100 or so over a bet of 150? This is a freeroll so anything possible but nothing should be calling that bet except the hands that beat me.

I'm different than most players. I want what's in the middle instead of getting outdrawn on the board. But that's just me. Not saying it is always the correct play! Everyone plays there cards different. That's what makes this game so much fun!

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
2,5X is completely fine.

Flop
You flopped an overpair and got donked into. Here I can pretty much repeat, what I just wrote in another thread, where the Hero had AA and faced the same action. The SPR was around 6, and on this particular board I am totally happy to stack off any overpair against a single opponent in a single raised pot.

You provided HUD-stats for Villain, and he is one of those players, I call "semi-loose passive". He have close to "good" preflop stats, but his gap between VPIP and PFR is to large, which mean, he is still throwing in to many preflop calls, where he should have folded. And your sample is large enough for these numbers to be reliable.

So first of all what does this tell us about Villain? Well it tells us, that he is someone, who to some extend is studying the game and taking it serious. He have some idea, whats going on, but he is still in the early phases of learning. He is not a big solid winner just yet, but he might get there eventually.

Now which hands do we expect this kind of player to defend his big blind with? The sets are all there, but two pair should be rare, except for maybe 96s, and if he felt splashy maybe 63s. But thats still only a total of 4 combos of 2 pair and 9 combos of sets, you lose to. And then there is the flop action. Why is this kind of player leading into us? I will go out on a line here a little bit and say, that he probably understand enough of the game to know, that he can expect a lot of C-bets from you on this kind of board. So if he flopped a set or two pair, I think, he would be more likely to check to you and let you hang yourself.

If on the other hand he flopped top pair or a draw or even second pair, then he will think, that you have a lot of A high, K high, Q high, that is just going to fold, if he leads out, and this is, why he did it. He is not doing this with a set to get called by A high or K high. He is doing it with one of those medium strong hands to make you fold. If he has a pair, its a "protection bet". If he check-call, then the turn is going to bring a lot of bad cards like an A or K, and then he have no idea, where he is. So he just want you to fold now and take it down.

This was a long way of saying, that I think, you have the best hand almost always, and that you should raise. You say, that you dont think, any worse hands can call. I completely disagree with that. If someone is donk leading top pair or a draw, they are not going to fold to a raise on the flop. And if they do, then just take that line as a bluff, whenever they donk! I would go ahead here and make this 500 to set it up for a turn jam, just as I would in that other hand, where Hero had AA.

Turn
This was not the best card for you, since it completed one of the OESDs and it also completed a hand like 65, which could also be taking this line preflop and on the flop. You faced another small bet, and given, that your relative hand strenght got worse, this was not the time to increase your aggression. As played you should have called now and then seen, what happened on the river. Most likely calling again and getting to showdown.

Instead you made a min-raise, and at this point the hand got rather silly. Your min-raise is like saying "I dont think, you have anything, but I dont have anything either, so I will only risk the minimum to find out, where I am". And then he clicks it back again, which is like saying "I know, you dont think, I have anything, but I know, you dont have anything either, so I am also going to click it back, and hopefully you will now fold". Or he turned a straight and dont want to lose his customer by 3-betting large.

As played I guess, I would call now and then evaluate river. But its a really weird spot, that I would never have created to begin with. I would much rather raise big on the flop, jam turn, and if he turn over the nuts, then good for him. I then have egg all over my face, but I also win his entire stack, when he have top pair and convince himself, I am bluffing. Or when he cant lay down some draw, and he fail to get there on the river.