$Freeroll NLHE MTT: $ : K5s. Two Pair Turn. Should Shove?

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wizcup

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Hi guys,

I need your insight on this play, especially on Turn when I decided to all-in (is it correct decision?). Beside that, I'd also like your input on my preflop (I only check here because my hand is not strong, is it correct?).

Because I need an objective insight, I'm not showing the result yet. I will update it later though. Thanks in advance!

Hand Replayer Link
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Hand Replay in Text
iPoker, Hold'em No Limit - 400/800 (64 ante) - 8 players

UTG: 11,874 (15 bb)
UTG+1: 369 (0 bb)
MP: 10,964 (14 bb)
MP+1: 50,837 (64 bb) VPIP/PFR (60/10) 11 hands.
CO: 10,682 (13 bb)
BU: 13,246 (17 bb)
SB: 45,558 (57 bb)
BB (Hero): 32,514 (41 bb) VPIP/PFR (42/42) 12 hands.

Pre-Flop: (1,712) Hero is BB with K♣ 5♣
3 players fold, MP+1 calls 800, 3 players fold, Hero checks

Flop: (2,512) 7♣ K♦ J♥ (2 players)
Hero bets 2,512, MP+1 calls 2,512

Turn: (7,536) 5♥ (2 players)
Hero bets 7,536, MP+1 raises to 21,100, Hero raises to 29,138 (all-in), MP+1 calls 8,038
 
Edu1

Edu1

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My analise of this hand:
Preflop: I think check is the best move, standard play, Kc5c is check 80%

Flop: I don't think is good bet size, between 1200/1700 is better, because a bet the pot most of the time is, absolute value or forcing the opponent to fold a hand who can become better in later streets, K5 is not the "nuts" and if he calls is not a good signal, of course the can have a QT, T9 (hands with draws) it would be good for you

Turn: ok, another bet the pot (i dont like), with two pairs, and this play ends up going to all-in, you have to go. you will show the results later, but if the river card don't be a K or 5 I think is improbable you won this. I think villain had Kx (AKo, KJ, KQ, K7s) or 77. lets see
 
jaworek1405

jaworek1405

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Hello, I agree mostly with BullXT, I also think that pot size bet on the flop is too big. I prefer here bet for 50% of the pot. On that flop you have top pair, but you have very weak kicker. I always bet on the flop with top pair and weak kicker, but when opponent raise my bet I usually fold, because of weak kicker. In this situation turn card helped you and with two pair I play like hero. I probably always go allin, especially in freeroll tournament, where are many weak players. If turn card doesn't help you IMO you should fold this top pair to opponent's raise, because opponent usually will have better kicker than your.
 
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ssbn743

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Hi guys,

I need your insight on this play, especially on Turn when I decided to all-in (is it correct decision?). Beside that, I'd also like your input on my preflop (I only check here because my hand is not strong, is it correct?).

Because I need an objective insight, I'm not showing the result yet. I will update it later though. Thanks in advance!

Hand Replayer Link
Replay this hand on CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/4eb39Sd1
Hand Replay in Text
iPoker, Hold'em No Limit - 400/800 (64 ante) - 8 players

UTG: 11,874 (15 bb)
UTG+1: 369 (0 bb)
MP: 10,964 (14 bb)
MP+1: 50,837 (64 bb) VPIP/PFR (60/10) 11 hands.
CO: 10,682 (13 bb)
BU: 13,246 (17 bb)
SB: 45,558 (57 bb)
BB (Hero): 32,514 (41 bb) VPIP/PFR (42/42) 12 hands.

Pre-Flop: (1,712) Hero is BB with K♣ 5♣
3 players fold, MP+1 calls 800, 3 players fold, Hero checks

Flop: (2,512) 7♣ K♦ J♥ (2 players)
Hero bets 2,512, MP+1 calls 2,512

Turn: (7,536) 5♥ (2 players)
Hero bets 7,536, MP+1 raises to 21,100, Hero raises to 29,138 (all-in), MP+1 calls 8,038

Pre-flop
Standard

On the flop
This lead is bad, and pot size too, that's bad - what hands are we getting value from?

If I were the villain here (which I never would be because I open limp exactly 0%), but if I were, I'd be raising your flop bet knowing I'm putting you in an impossible situation. You have turned your hand, basically face-up by leading here and have polarized your range to medium strength hands and draws or two-pair and better. As villain, I can raise and fold to your raise/jam without losing a wink of sleep - and when you fold k5, it doesn't even matter what I have.

Also, the sizing..... no no no. Our bet sizing needs to account for our entire range (which in this case is all 1326) - would you pot it here with QTo? How about Q9o? Or J6cc?

I will say that if your were going to play for all the chips, the pot size is good, because it will help us setup a river jam. With 13 SPR, we can get all-in by river with pot/pot/pot.

Let's look at this particular hand: 31,650 eff, pot 2,512, a little under 13SPR actually.
We bet pot, villain calls, pot 7536, we have 29048 back
We be pot, villain calls, pot 22608, we have 21512 back
We pot Pot - and it's just slightly more than we have - if the SPR were exactly 13, our river shove would be 22608.

Anyway, I got a little off topic here - we should not be playing for all the chips here:
1. It's an un-raised pot
2. Our hand simply isn't strong enough

Your hand should be played as a check/call 100% of the time.

On the turn

So, our hand now changes and becomes a much stronger. It's still debatable whether this would be a 3-street stack-off hand, but against a limper, it probably is.

Anyway, the 3-street part of the equation is moot since we're on the turn - since we luckily chose a pot sized bet OTF, we can continue - I like the pot size bet in this spot, just not how we got here.

Now we are put to a decision for our stack - and don't worry, it's not by a competent villain, the open limp in a tourney kind of gives him away. So, math is the answer and these are the spots we need to study so we know the right answer at the table - my bet, is that this is going to be a 4-bet jam, but let's see:

Let's start by assigning kind of a weird range (open limpers typically don't have ranges, so it makes more sense) to our villain, but one that I think fits and makes sense with the action.

KK+,77,55,KJs,K7s,QTs-Q9s,J7s,Ah8h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h,KJo,K7o,QTo-Q9o,J7o

We of course have our two pair and just under 66% equity against the range above.
If he raises turn with all of these hands, that's a total of about 6.7% of all total hands
If we jam, he's going to fold some things like QT, Q9 and things like that, so how much of the 6.7% does he stack with? I'd say about 3.4%

Plug all that in to my handy dandy little spreadsheet (I'll try to attach, but I've issues before, I think CC doesn't like excel doc, so it might just have to be a picture)

And we'll see a 4-bet jam is a $28K +EV

Moreover, if we assume that he stacks with his entire range, all 6.7%, or hell, let's make it 10%, and let's reduce our equity to 50%, just for the sake of argument and we find it's still massively +EV

You'll notice on the spreadsheet, we only need 37% equity to justify a jam here.

Now, again, I would take a few issues with how we got here - but once here, jam.

River
Ok, you took the river out I guess - well let us know.
 

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