$Freeroll NLHE MTT: I think I called here correctly - Agree or disagree?

T

tzuriel

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Just a very bad run out.

Late stages of a freeroll satellite to Hi5 #97 on ACR.


Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem $0+$0 (600.00BB)
HJ ($9359)
HERO ($16635)
BTN ($25510)
SB ($24564)
BB ($4256)
UTG ($8042)
EP ($19073)
MP ($16087)

Dealt to Hero: K A

UTG Raises To $8042 (allin), EP Folds, MP Folds, HJ Raises To $9359 (allin), HERO Calls $9284, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds

Flop ($28035): 6 K A

Turn ($28035): 6 K A 8

River ($28035): 6 K A 8 J

HJ shows: T T
UTG shows: 9 T

HJ wins: $28035
 
perrypip

perrypip

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For 16BB that's a call. Bad run out. Sucks after hitting two pair on the flop I would have called too.
 
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fundiver199

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Given that this was a satellite, it depends on, how far from the money you were? In pure chip EV AK is obviously a call, but ICM is huge near the bubble in a satellite. There is no reward for finishing with twice as many chips as everyone else, when the tournament is over. And in such a situation AK can certainly be a fold, when two players have already moved in. You are rarely going to have more than 40% equity with AK 3-ways, and if trippling your stack only marginally increase the chance of cashing, then you should fold and wait for a spot, where you can steal blinds, be the one pushing or maybe call a single all-in.
 
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tzuriel

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Given that this was a satellite, it depends on, how far from the money you were? In pure chip EV AK is obviously a call, but ICM is huge near the bubble in a satellite. There is no reward for finishing with twice as many chips as everyone else, when the tournament is over. And in such a situation AK can certainly be a fold, when two players have already moved in. You are rarely going to have more than 40% equity with AK 3-ways, and if trippling your stack only marginally increase the chance of cashing, then you should fold and wait for a spot, where you can steal blinds, be the one pushing or maybe call a single all-in.


Pretty close, actually. Like maybe 50. Hmmm.
 
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fundiver199

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Pretty close, actually. Like maybe 50. Hmmm.

The important is, how many % of the field needed to go out, before the tournament was over. If for instance 50% needed to go out, and you were an average stack, then this is a snap fold, because tripling your stack will only dubble your chance of cashing give or take, and you dont have 50% equity 3-ways.

In fact even in a normal MTT this would be a fold, if you are near the bubble or on the final table, and the other players are reasonable. This is because, the second player jamming has no fold equity, so he should have a very strong range. And for this reason, ranges for calling multible jams often need to be really tight, especially when you are risking a substantial percentage of your chips, and there is no bounty in play.

Just to give you an example I plugged the hand into ICMizer telling the program, it was a 888 Poker MTT with 27 places paying and 40 players left. In that situation UTG is only supposed to jam 11% of hands, HJ is only supposed to overjam 3,3%, and you are then only supposed to call with QQ-AA, and calling with QQ barely makes you any money.

Now obviously UTG was quite a bit wider than 11%, and HJ was also wider than 3,3%, which is maybe the freeroll factor. But they need to be doing a lot of spazzing, before calling with AK makes you any money, and even more so when it was a satellite. So this was actually probably a fold. The fact, you flopped two pair and then got outdrawn, is irrelevant. You got it in preflop with 43% equity, and this was one of the better scenarios for you with UTG having pure garbage, and the two opponents blocking some of each others outs.
 
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tzuriel

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Just to give you an example I plugged the hand into ICMizer telling the program, it was a 888 Poker MTT with 27 places paying and 40 players left. In that situation UTG is only supposed to jam 11% of hands, HJ is only supposed to overjam 3,3%, and you are then only supposed to call with QQ-AA, and calling with QQ barely makes you any money.

Now obviously UTG was quite a bit wider than 11%, and HJ was also wider than 3,3%, which is maybe the freeroll factor. But they need to be doing a lot of spazzing, before calling with AK makes you any money, and even more so when it was a satellite. So this was actually probably a fold. The fact, you flopped two pair and then got outdrawn, is irrelevant. You got it in preflop with 43% equity, and this was one of the better scenarios for you with UTG having pure garbage, and the two opponents blocking some of each others outs.


Thanks for this. I learn a lot from each of your posts.
 
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