$Freeroll NLHE MTT: $Freeroll NLHE MTT: Is it better in this situation to try to fold and make it to cash

[WizardRubic]

$Freeroll NLHE MTT: $Freeroll NLHE MTT: Is it better in this situation to try to fold and make it to cash

Hello,

I was playing a freeroll with the following info:

Player stats:
I am AnUnderdog.
Minotaur: folds 90.3% preflop sample28/31
Vale: Fold preflop 50% sample of 2
ctahok: He looked fairly tight. I'm too lazy to count how many times he folded but I now he was preflop.

Hand Information
Blind: $600/ $1,200 BB (5 handed).
Hand History converter courtesy of pokerhandreplays.com

Table Information
Seat: 1 vale ($16368) Big Blind
Seat: 2 4gasm ($25101)
Seat: 3 anunderdog ($3885)
Seat: 7 ctahok ($10769) Dealer
Seat: 9 minotaur ($14740) Small Blind
Seat 1vale Ante: 75
Seat 24gasm Ante: 75
Seat 3anunderdog Ante: 75
Seat 7ctahok Ante: 75
Seat 9minotaur Ante: 75
Dealt to anunderdog

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Preflop (Pot:2175)
4gasm****FOLD
anunderdog****ALL-IN
ctahok****FOLD
minotaur****CALL $3210
vale****CALL $2610

Flop(Pot: $12180)

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minotaur****CHECK
vale****BET $2400
minotaur****FOLD

Turn(Pot: $14580)

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River(Pot: $14580)

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Showdown:
vale SHOWS

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anunderdog SHOWS

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vale**wins the pot: $12180



I want to know if pushing here is a good idea. Top 9 cashed and I was in 11th place. 10th was about to die off. 9th was at 8k chips. With 2175 chips for antes and blinds and 3,885 in my stack, it looked like a +EV move. expected value of 4368.425 costing me 3885 aprox assuming we know that vale has a6 and I have a3. I didn't really have enough data on Vale to know for sure what kind of hands he plays.

Even though it's a +EV in chips, should I have just fold and tried to outlast the guy with 8k chips to make it in the cash? I know the 9th place guy with 8k chips was playing quite loose mid tournament. He was making all in calls preflop with hands like qko. The 11th place guy had like 100 chips so I assumed he was dead. I was tenth. Blinds woulda gone up to 800/1600 in like a minute so I was definitely gonna have to give up 2/3 of my stack to last another round. I also had 60 seconds on the time bank. I feel using it to stall is kinda cheating... I dunno about it though.

If anyone has any opinions of whether folding and trying to outlast 9th place was a better plan or not would be appreciated.

Thanks!

Edit: I know you aren't supposed to reveal hand info but that A6 coulda been anything. I don't think it makes much of a difference to reveal it or not since it's not too pertinent to the question. Thanks again!

 

[WizardRubic]

Aw gawd. It was a bad move all over. I screwed up my EV calculation. I slept on it and realized that I added my stack twice when I tried to calculate how much I'd win if he called with A6.

Drat... If it were a +EV spot though, should I go in?

Edit: I suppose we can't actually get an accurate ev calc since that vale player only played on my table for 2 hands...

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

I think you gotta jam right there. You have an above average hand and probably by the time you're in the BB the blinds will be up and you'll be essentially pot committed to a random hand.

There's no easy choices in that spot and in all reality nothing you do is going to give you a great chance of making the money, but I think shipping that A3 gives you a better chance than folding it. you could get called by a hand like KQ or 77 and be fairly live.

If you had more chips....say closer to 6,000 then trying to wait out the 8k stack who was playing too loosely might have been a wise strategy...but with an m=<2 you aren't gonna be able to wait him out...

 

[jaworek1405]

Personally, I don't like A3o in this spot. Hard situation, because hand isn't too good, and you have no time to play. If you strongly want to be in cash, I probably can wait and I hope that I can get better hand than A3o in last hands. Here for example I can try to play from the big blind, then they shouldn't play too loose and maybe you can play vs only one opponent, not two opponents.

 

[WizardRubic]

Yeah Thanks guys!

Issue with waiting is that the blinds will come around in 2 hands and reduce my stack to a pitiful 2k. So I guess even with a good hand, I probably wouldn't last too long.

 

[jordanbillie]

It seems like you might be getting ahead of yourself here. I don't want you to take this the wrong way, but this is a no brainer. Take a step back from trying to calculate your exact EV and take a look at general push/fold strategy. Also, unless you just took a flip and lost, you shouldn't allow yourself to get this short stacked.