This is a snap call, don't even think twice. There is 38,998 int he pot, you just need to put in 18,214 more. This means you are putting in 18,214 to win a total pot of 57212. Giving you a total
equity of 31.82%. In order for this to be +EV, you just need to have greater than 31.82% equity from your AKo.
Before going any further it is important to give the three villains corresponding hand ranges that fit the bill. I'm going to try and be conservative in their shoving ranges, however there is a chance that utg is too tight, and that UTG+1 is too loose. It is a freeroll so I
UTG (55% of hands)
33+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J3s+,T5s+,95s+,85s+,75s+,64s+,54s,A2o+,K4o+,K2o,Q6o+,J7o+,T7o+,98o
UTG+1 (9.5% of his range, this is probably too tight for a freeroll).
55+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+
UTG+2 (5.88%)
88+,AJs+,AQo
Alright now going forward we need to calculate the equity that you have in all three of the pots that you are capable of winning.
The
Main pot has a total of 1200 from the blinds, 720 from teh antes, as well as 1476*4 assuming you call for a total pot size of
7824.
Given the hand ranges of all 4 players you have a total of 25.32% equity in this main pot so that = 7824*.2532= = 1981.0368 equity in the main pot.
Side Pot contains (16988-1476)*3 players=
46536
Your equitiy against UTG and UTG+1 ranges with AKo is 31.51%
46536*.3151%=
14663.4936
Second Side pot is 3252. Against UTG+1's shove range your AKo has 49.33% equity. 3252*.4933=
1604.21 chips
Add all 3 up in the long run you are risking 18,214 to win 1604.21+14663.49+1981.04 which comes out to a total of 18248.74.
This play will net a gain of +34 chips in the long run. This is pretty marginal, however it is ultimately plus ev given the shoving ranges that I described above.
Now what is important to decide at this point is the tournament structure itself as well as ICM. You currently have a very large stack, over 2.5x the 2nd leading stack on the table, these chips are very valuable and will allow you to fold up the pay ladder, assuming you aren't in a very large field. One important thing to take into consideration is how often will you win the large side pot and equity labs dictates that you will only win the pot outright 26.48%, while chopping the pot 5% of the time. Given this you will have a 80k chip stack 26.5% of the time, the other 68.5% of the time you will fall down to 27k, which is still an M of over 10 leaving you with plenty of room, and 5% of the time you will end up with ~ your initial stack.
This is where the Game Theory comes into play, do you want to risk it in order to have an 80k stack? This might be an optimal solution to take a shot if there are still a lot of players left, an 80k stack would probably give you a very good chance to make a very deep run and that's what is where the money is made in tournaments. The less amount of players left the more valuable your chips are, and the law of diminishing returns suggests that the extra 35k chips you stand to gain might not be worth the risk of your initial outlay, ultimately if you feel like getting 80k will increase your chances to win, or take top 3, where the money is at in tournaments enough to counteract the decrease in long term expectation that comes with the 69.5% chance you will lose the pot.
Have fun, hope my response isn't too loopy. Also I used Equilab for all my calculations. Let me know how the hand and ultimately the tournament played out. Me Personally, I fold here if it's close to end game, Your stack is valuable and you can put pressure on the little stacks, if there are ~50-100 left I might be more inclined to let this opportunity go.
