$Freeroll NLHE MTT: 99, Almost in the FT's Bubble, Fold?

[konatus]

No Limit Holdem Tournament
pokerstars
7 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG HERO (304k) 15bb
UTG+1 pillo1952 (805k) 40bb
MP Flcazaes (2,827k) 141bb
CO Luch298 (214k) 11bb
BTN manuel8e (163k) 8bb
SB richibaldo72 (456k) 23bb
BB Sudburydog (72k) 4bb

Blinds: 10k/20k Ante 2k

Pre-Flop: (44k, 7 players) HERO is UTG <font color='red'>9♥</font> <font color='black'>9♣</font>
HERO ???

 

[invisile]

This always easy shove!

 

[jordanbillie]

This spot is close and my decision is going to depend on my reads. If others have been 3 betting light or been generally tough pre, I can see a fold pre. If the play has been easy and passive, I like a min raise. Open shoving is the worst option.

 

[Arjonius]

If others have been 3 betting light or been generally tough pre, I can see a fold pre.

While folding isn't terrible, open-raising with the intention of shoving over a 3bet that could well be light doesn't seem awful either.

 

[jordanbillie]

While folding isn't terrible, open-raising with the intention of shoving over a 3bet that could well be light doesn't seem awful either.

Yeah, I can definitely see a spot for that play as well.

 

[RamdeeBen]

Snap shove and not even close regardless of it being FT bubble. Even with the short stacks behind, it's not as if we're at a tough table in general given it's a freeroll we're likely going to be called quite light and there's not much ICM involved given it's a freeroll.


IF this was a big tournament buy-in which we won a seat in, then yes I can see folding as an option because there are short stacks behind and the pay jumps are going to be significant enough.

 

[RamdeeBen]

This spot is close and my decision is going to depend on my reads. If others have been 3 betting light or been generally tough pre, I can see a fold pre. If the play has been easy and passive, I like a min raise. Open shoving is the worst option.

Why do you think it's close? I think it's a snap shove. We only have 14bb, we're UTG and if people are 3 betting us light when we min open with 99 on a 14bb stack, how can folding pre be good? This would be an amazing spot to be in facing a light 3B when we min open 99 on 14bb.



Overall, given it's a freeroll and we have a great hand UTG on a short stack this is going to be a good spot to just open shove imo. Not only does it look weaker if we're open shoving all our range in this spot, we are going to get called by so much worse so often in freerolls.

 

[konatus]

Here is the full hand.

Spoiler

No Limit Holdem Tournament
PokerStars
7 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG HERO (304k) 15bb
UTG+1 pillo1952 (805k) 40bb
MP Flcazaes (2,827k) 141bb
CO Luch298 (214k) 11bb
BTN manuel8e (163k) 8bb
SB richibaldo72 (456k) 23bb
BB Sudburydog (72k) 4bb

Blinds: 10k/20k Ante 2k

Pre-Flop: (44k, 7 players) HERO is UTG
HERO folds, pillo1952 calls 20k, Flcazaes calls 20k, 2 folds, richibaldo72 calls 10k, Sudburydog checks

Flop: (94k, 4 players)
richibaldo72 checks, Sudburydog bets 20k, pillo1952 calls 20k, 1 fold, richibaldo72 calls 20k

Turn: (154k, 3 players)
richibaldo72 checks, Sudburydog checks, pillo1952 bets 20k, richibaldo72 calls 20k, Sudburydog goes all-in 30k, pillo1952 calls 10k, richibaldo72 calls 10k

River: (244k, 3 players, 1 all-in)
richibaldo72 checks, pillo1952 bets 40k, richibaldo72 folds

Final Pot: 244k
Sudburydog shows two pair, Jacks and Threes

pillo1952 shows two pair, Jacks and Tens


pillo1952 wins 284k (net +172k)

richibaldo72 lost 72k
Sudburydog lost 72k
Flcazaes lost 22k

 

[Arjonius]

With 15bb, I'm not opening any hand unless I'm willing to get it all in pre-. I'm also not keen to get called and thus to see the flop OOP with a mid-pair. Shoving seems like the straightforward play.

If I'm confident enough someone will 3bet if I open small, I'd consider going for the 4bet shove line. Or possibly even the limp-shove line if the table has been raising limpers a lot. But even then, it's not clear that these lines are meaningfully superior or even better at all compared to open-shoving.

 

[jordanbillie]

Why do you think it's close? I think it's a snap shove. We only have 14bb, we're UTG and if people are 3 betting us light when we min open with 99 on a 14bb stack, how can folding pre be good? This would be an amazing spot to be in facing a light 3B when we min open 99 on 14bb.



Overall, given it's a freeroll and we have a great hand UTG on a short stack this is going to be a good spot to just open shove imo. Not only does it look weaker if we're open shoving all our range in this spot, we are going to get called by so much worse so often in freerolls.

A 14BB shove never looks week lol. I think this hand is a prime example of why 15BB deep is the hardest stack to play. Open shoving is way too spewey compared to having 10BB or less.

 

[RamdeeBen]

A 14BB shove never looks week lol. I think this hand is a prime example of why 15BB deep is the hardest stack to play. Open shoving is way too spewey compared to having 10BB or less.

Not sure about it not looking weak. It depends on which players are open shoving, but there's not a HUGE difference in our 10bb and 14bb UTG shoving range when antes are in play - we should expect to get called by the same range of hands that call our 10bb shove.

You shouldn't be min opening your strongest range like 99-AA and open shoving 22 for example from this spot. If you min open 14bb stacks to call of a shove, that's also fine but we have to do this with all our weakest and strongest range 22-AA and not change it dependant on our hand strength.

If we're opening shoving say all our range of 14bb (with antes) UTG of 33+,A8s,A5s,AJo+,KQo,QTs+JTs,T9s then we can get called by more hands. If we decide to min open hands like 99+,AQ+ - how many hands do you think are going to 3B shove on us here? There's no weaker hands that will do that in general where as open shoving gives people are much wider calling range. I'd say like the only worse pairs are going to be 77-88 and AQs+.

The main problem I have with a min open in this spot, is our range looks to strong and if it's inconsistent with how we would play 33 for example it's just really terrible. I'm not sure, but I'm guessing if someone had 33 here they would just open shove it. I think we get people to fold hands like 44-55 when we min open which is truly bad for obvious reasons.

Not sure how you think shoving is way to spewy though? In what sense is it spewy open shoving 99 here?

 

[horizon12]

Not sure about it not looking weak. It depends on which players are open shoving, but there's not a HUGE difference in our 10bb and 14bb UTG shoving range when antes are in play - we should expect to get called by the same range of hands that call our 10bb shove.

You shouldn't be min opening your strongest range like 99-AA and open shoving 22 for example from this spot. If you min open 14bb stacks to call of a shove, that's also fine but we have to do this with all our weakest and strongest range 22-AA and not change it dependant on our hand strength.

If we're opening shoving say all our range of 14bb (with antes) UTG of 33+,A8s,A5s,AJo+,KQo,QTs+JTs,T9s then we can get called by more hands. If we decide to min open hands like 99+,AQ+ - how many hands do you think are going to 3B shove on us here? There's no weaker hands that will do that in general where as open shoving gives people are much wider calling range. I'd say like the only worse pairs are going to be 77-88 and AQs+.

The main problem I have with a min open in this spot, is our range looks to strong and if it's inconsistent with how we would play 33 for example it's just really terrible. I'm not sure, but I'm guessing if someone had 33 here they would just open shove it. I think we get people to fold hands like 44-55 when we min open which is truly bad for obvious reasons.

Not sure how you think shoving is way to spewy though? In what sense is it spewy open shoving 99 here?

Here we must look only at the position , if we was MP we can open min raise
2BB ( but this too was mistake ) . If blinds call and in flop be overcards , we need c-bet of couse , but if villain 3bets, 99 fold and we stay with short stack.

Preflop shove because 99 this very strong hand, we have only 15 bb, our position very bad for minraise, if we get 2 callers this be very difficult game in flop.. And how you sayd this bubble, players mostly play very tight now..

 

[jordanbillie]

Not sure about it not looking weak. It depends on which players are open shoving, but there's not a HUGE difference in our 10bb and 14bb UTG shoving range when antes are in play - we should expect to get called by the same range of hands that call our 10bb shove.

You shouldn't be min opening your strongest range like 99-AA and open shoving 22 for example from this spot. If you min open 14bb stacks to call of a shove, that's also fine but we have to do this with all our weakest and strongest range 22-AA and not change it dependant on our hand strength.

If we're opening shoving say all our range of 14bb (with antes) UTG of 33+,A8s,A5s,AJo+,KQo,QTs+JTs,T9s then we can get called by more hands. If we decide to min open hands like 99+,AQ+ - how many hands do you think are going to 3B shove on us here? There's no weaker hands that will do that in general where as open shoving gives people are much wider calling range. I'd say like the only worse pairs are going to be 77-88 and AQs+.

The main problem I have with a min open in this spot, is our range looks to strong and if it's inconsistent with how we would play 33 for example it's just really terrible. I'm not sure, but I'm guessing if someone had 33 here they would just open shove it. I think we get people to fold hands like 44-55 when we min open which is truly bad for obvious reasons.

Not sure how you think shoving is way to spewy though? In what sense is it spewy open shoving 99 here?

To answer simply: We are on the bubble of a freeroll. Dependent on the table, a min raise gives us the same FE as a shove. I'm certainly not happy if I shove this spot and get called. I'm likely to be flipping and I don't enjoy playing for hours to take a marginal flip spot. Also, open shoving 33 is lolbad in this spot and should be a snap fold.

 

[invisile]

I'm likely to be flipping and I don't enjoy playing for hours to take a marginal flip spot.

We have 15bb stack in freeroll FT bubble..:shot:

 

[matiusaa]

If you shove, you will likely go to a flip. I don't like the min raise cause the only favourable flops for you are the ones who carry a 9 or all threelower cards. You are playing a freeroll, and I suppose players aren't so good and they will get in with hands like TJ JQ KT KJ and better hands also. I am pretty sure that if you shove you will go to a flip, and I think its not worth the risk, because you are so near FT and there are players who are even more short than you are. I would fold pre.

 

[konatus]

If you shove, you will likely go to a flip. I don't like the min raise cause the only favourable flops for you are the ones who carry a 9 or all threelower cards. You are playing a freeroll, and I suppose players aren't so good and they will get in with hands like TJ JQ KT KJ and better hands also. I am pretty sure that if you shove you will go to a flip, and I think its not worth the risk, because you are so near FT and there are players who are even more short than you are. I would fold pre.

Played this hand following this assumption. Look the spoiler with the full hand. I showed the full hand in another post.

 

[Arjonius]

If you shove, you will likely go to a flip. I don't like the min raise cause the only favourable flops for you are the ones who carry a 9 or all threelower cards. You are playing a freeroll, and I suppose players aren't so good and they will get in with hands like TJ JQ KT KJ and better hands also. I am pretty sure that if you shove you will go to a flip, and I think its not worth the risk, because you are so near FT and there are players who are even more short than you are. I would fold pre.

This is an incomplete analysis. For one thing, you're ignoring the times when everyone folds, which will happen a meaningful percentage of the time. As well, you say you'll be flipping against the likes of TJ JQ KT KJ. Are players who call a 15bb shove with those hands all going to fold middle pairs? Certainly not, so it isn't a situation where you can only be slightly ahead or well behind.

With 15bb, what's the problem taking a flip anyway? The goal isn't just to make the final table. It's to get into a position where you have a reasonable chance to finish in the top 3 or so spots.

 

[invisile]

This is an incomplete analysis. For one thing, you're ignoring the times when everyone folds, which will happen a meaningful percentage of the time. As well, you say you'll be flipping against the likes of TJ JQ KT KJ. Are players who call a 15bb shove with those hands all going to fold middle pairs? Certainly not, so it isn't a situation where you can only be slightly ahead or well behind.

With 15bb, what's the problem taking a flip anyway? The goal isn't just to make the final table. It's to get into a position where you have a reasonable chance to finish in the top 3 or so spots.

+1, We are playing tournament and the big moneys are always like top3, so it is same thing when we are like 10th or 7th, because big pay jumps comes always in the end. If this would be like a satellite where is like 10 left and 5 tickets, we can fold, but this is a freeroll and there is always bigger payday for first place, so this is easy shove. And if someone calls like some KQ or AT, that is good thing for us because we could douple up and 30bb is lot more than 14bb in FT. And if someone says that doesnt want to play many hours and lose a flip in the end, go play cash!

 

[wherbie718]

I agree that opening here is necessary -- I'd consider open-shoving, however a 2-2.5x open is likely sufficient here. I'd also be looking to get it in pre if I'm raised by one of the shorter stacks, since they have more incentive to be shoving light here.

 

[wherbie718]

+1, We are playing tournament and the big moneys are always like top3, so it is same thing when we are like 10th or 7th, because big pay jumps comes always in the end. If this would be like a satellite where is like 10 left and 5 tickets, we can fold, but this is a freeroll and there is always bigger payday for first place, so this is easy shove. And if someone calls like some KQ or AT, that is good thing for us because we could douple up and 30bb is lot more than 14bb in FT. And if someone says that doesnt want to play many hours and lose a flip in the end, go play cash!

I completely agree here -- This right here is why you have to at least open, if not open-shove.

 

[jordanbillie]

+1, We are playing tournament and the big moneys are always like top3, so it is same thing when we are like 10th or 7th, because big pay jumps comes always in the end. If this would be like a satellite where is like 10 left and 5 tickets, we can fold, but this is a freeroll and there is always bigger payday for first place, so this is easy shove. And if someone calls like some KQ or AT, that is good thing for us because we could douple up and 30bb is lot more than 14bb in FT. And if someone says that doesnt want to play many hours and lose a flip in the end, go play cash!

I play both cash and MTTs. When games are soft and players are spew nits; avoiding marginal spots/flips has been the most effective for me. Take an extreme example where people are folding way too much and nobody is 3 betting your steal attempts. Would you take an assumed flip on such a table or avoid the flip and just continue stealing?

 

[RamdeeBen]

I play both cash and MTTs. When games are soft and players are spew nits; avoiding marginal spots/flips has been the most effective for me. Take an extreme example where people are folding way too much and nobody is 3 betting your steal attempts. Would you take an assumed flip on such a table or avoid the flip and just continue stealing?

In a freeroll if ever think you're only ever going to be flipping when you get 14bb in with 99 is a really bad. People WILL call way to wide for a start and their value hands are going to be worse to and of course sometimes they show up with better sometimes but that's just variance. To think 99 on a 14bb stack with antes in play is a marginal spot to want to get it in is really bad. You're simply losing money by wanting to fold 99 here.

Also, I find it hard to believe or think you're way to tight that if you want to fold 99 here that you're going to be stealing wide enough, regularly enough to out weigh getting 99 in here. You just simply aren't going to the able to do it. Even the best players wouldn't be able to sacrifice a hand such as 99 here in favour of trying to steal blinds later on 10-12bb stacks lol.

You need to stop thinking we're flipping a lot or that it's marginal spot to go with here. I don't think you realize how strong a hand 99 really is on our stack size in a MTT.

Also, I'm not sure exactly how you think folding you're going to be able "continue stealing" on a 10-12bb stack after you previously just folded 99. It's not like we're 30-40bb deep. If we're trying to steal on a 12bb stack, we're going to be priced in to call of our remaining chips when we get 3B shoved on so where's our steal? If you continue to fold to 3B steals and leave yourself with 8bb the next hand and so on, I can't stress enough how bad this is going to be.

 

[Arjonius]

I play both cash and MTTs. When games are soft and players are spew nits; avoiding marginal spots/flips has been the most effective for me. Take an extreme example where people are folding way too much and nobody is 3 betting your steal attempts. Would you take an assumed flip on such a table or avoid the flip and just continue stealing?

Even if we assume folding is better in the situation you put forward, you say it's an extreme example. So probably pretty unusual / infrequent. So why would we want to generalize that folding is also better in non-extreme situations, which represent the large majority of the time?

 

[goodgameme]

I'm definitely shoving here given our stack size and approaching the final table bubble. I think min raising with the intention of calling a 3bet here is the worst option. What happens when we get called and get put in a tough spot post flop? Just get it in.

 

[Arjonius]

I'm definitely shoving here given our stack size and approaching the final table bubble. I think min raising with the intention of calling a 3bet here is the worst option. What happens when we get called and get put in a tough spot post flop? Just get it in.

Poker is a situational game. Even if this line is never optimal, it can be sub-optimal to different degrees depending on the situation. You're generalizing that this line is worst overall, and basing this on a different situation from the one I put forward.