$Freeroll NLHE: AQo, FT, get it in ?

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ComplexPlaya

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$Freeroll NL HE: AQo, FT, get it in ?

Final table, 6 left. Freeroll, only 1st gets paid, but gets paid good so there was a stake.

Guy that shoved was pretty tight, stole his blinds quite a few times. He did shove over a raise with AJo before.

If I fold here I get the blinds in 2 hands, then a level increase which would leave me with an M of ~7

Call / fold ?



Entraction - 20.50/5 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

fonnytorsk (MP): 113,763.00
ComplexP (CO): 92,594.00
jeroooo (BTN): 109,974.00
reverie79 (SB): 64,376.00
Gonzales+ (BB): 53,680.00
BOMBEN66 (UTG): 73,113.00

reverie79 posts SB 2,500.00, Gonzales+ posts BB 5,000.00

fold, fold, ComplexP raises to 12,000.00, jeroooo raises to 109,974.00, fold, fold, ComplexP ???
 
wrung24

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Its quite a close call in this situation, he might be thinking you're going for a steal, especially if you say you have been doing it frequently. He could be shoving with any ace, but also any pocket pair, so it's close.

I would say fold but really not sure
 
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ComplexPlaya

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I know it's close, my question is...is it worth folding knowing I'll be left with an M of just 7 in a couple of hands? Doesn't that mean I'll most likely have to get it in with worse very soon? I really don't know too much about tournament strategy, it just seems logical to me, don't get to M=7 if I can avoid it
 
wrung24

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No I don't think it's worth folding, I don't think I could fold that hand even though I say I would, but be prepared to see a better hand quite often.

I'm sorry I haven't really studied M yet so my input on that isn't very valuable.
 
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What is the rest of the table like? Can you get away with stealing blinds quite frequently? What is your table image like at the moment? Winner takes all right?

Need to know a bit more information as this is quite a tight situation. If we a pretty sure we can get away with stealing a few blinds then we can go ahead and build our stack like that, rather than taking such a big risk and trying to double up.

As far as our stack size goes, when you get down to the final table you need to not only be checking what your 'M' is, but also comparing our stack size with the other stacks at the table. We have 6 left and we are sitting 3rd, even if we fold. Everybody is starting to get a little short stacked now so there could be quite a bit of shoving going on, we really need to be picking our spots wisely.
 
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What is the rest of the table like? Can you get away with stealing blinds quite frequently? What is your table image like at the moment? Winner takes all right?

Need to know a bit more information as this is quite a tight situation. If we a pretty sure we can get away with stealing a few blinds then we can go ahead and build our stack like that, rather than taking such a big risk and trying to double up.

As far as our stack size goes, when you get down to the final table you need to not only be checking what your 'M' is, but also comparing our stack size with the other stacks at the table. We have 6 left and we are sitting 3rd, even if we fold. Everybody is starting to get a little short stacked now so there could be quite a bit of shoving going on, we really need to be picking our spots wisely.

1 guy I couldn't steal from, the 2 shorter ones I could but they were short, they would have 3-4 BI's in a minute, I doubt i can steal from then at that point.

I like your last sentence, but can we be picking spots wisely when we have no choice? It's not unconceivable at all that I won't get a better hand than AQo before I'm blinded out, or that it will be too late when I do. But then again I'm usually unclear on how to play the end-game in mtts so I might be wrong.

Let me rephrase it this way : If I believe I'm slightly ahead of his shoving range here, is it an absolute call? Or it still depends?
 
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Sorry gotta make this quick. Just to answer your last question. This is the perfect time to open pokerstove and play around with ranges for a while. This decision will be affected by the fact that it is winner takes all but I'm not exactly sure in which way. Someone that knows more about ICM may want to give you some tips on that...
 
atlantafalcons0

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...it's certainly not me.

I would just open shove this hand to begin with.
 
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Sorry gotta make this quick. Just to answer your last question. This is the perfect time to open pokerstove and play around with ranges for a while. This decision will be affected by the fact that it is winner takes all but I'm not exactly sure in which way. Someone that knows more about ICM may want to give you some tips on that...

If i put his range at 77+,ATs+,KQs,ATo+,KJo+ we're flipping, I'm 51.6%. I have no idea if that range is too tight, don't think it's too loose. Except for pairs I'm usually either WA or WB though, maybe that is a factor to consider.

So it begs the question, do I want to flip at this stage and be chip leader or bust? Someone with ICM knowledge pls help!
 
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God i read through this OP like 5 times to try and work out what hand you had. finally spotted it in the opening title.

I don't really think this is much of a ICM spot. Only one spot gets paid so we obviously need all the chips. The shover is tight, sure, but he did shove, so it looks a lot weaker to me. I think this is a call, we're probably ahead of his range here (just) we have 20bb's, calling and winning puts us in the dominating chip lead to try and take this tournament down. So i don't really think ICM can help much here.

So yeah, i'm not 100% sure on this, i havent looked into it much, but i'd say because it's winner takes all, we need to be more aggressive. So i say call it.

Was there an ante in this tournament? if so, then i'd probably agree with atlanta that open shoving is a decent play.
 
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If you guys want to have a go at playing around with an ICM calculator, head to "www.chillin411.com"

You need to input the tourney distribution, then input all the stack sizes, work out equities when you double up, when you lose and the villain doubles up. Then we can weigh if calling here with AQ against a range is worth it, or not. I don't usually do this, but C9 is really good at this type of anaylsis. so i suggest sending him an invite to this thread. I'll run it though wizard and see if i can get some sort of analysis there.

Edit: I can't derive much of a result from SNG wiz. And i won't have time to run through the calculations. I'm back on in about a weeks time, so hopefully someone can finish what you guys have started.
 
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If you guys want to have a go at playing around with an ICM calculator, head to "www.chillin411.com"

You need to input the tourney distribution, then input all the stack sizes, work out equities when you double up, when you lose and the villain doubles up. Then we can weigh if calling here with AQ against a range is worth it, or not. I don't usually do this, but C9 is really good at this type of anaylsis. so i suggest sending him an invite to this thread. I'll run it though wizard and see if i can get some sort of analysis there.

Edit: I can't derive much of a result from SNG wiz. And i won't have time to run through the calculations. I'm back on in about a weeks time, so hopefully someone can finish what you guys have started.

It would be great if you could...SNG wizard should work, just make it an SNG where 1 player gets paid, if that is even possible in the software...
 
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Thanks for the info Wizzim.

After playing with the ICM calculator for a bit I remembered how the winner takes all affects the ICM. Basically the perctentage of chips in your stack is directly proportional to your equity.

In this example there are 507500 chips in play

Pre flop we have 92594 chips. This is 18.25% of the chips

If we fold here we have 80594 chips and 15.88%

If we call and lose we have 0 chips and 0%

If we call and win we have 192688 chips and 37.97%


From here I still don't know how to work out what sort of range we should be calling with. Since we more than double our equity when we win, I'm guessing that anything 50% or over we should be calling.
 
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Thanks for the info Wizzim.

After playing with the ICM calculator for a bit I remembered how the winner takes all affects the ICM. Basically the perctentage of chips in your stack is directly proportional to your equity.

In this example there are 507500 chips in play

Pre flop we have 92594 chips. This is 18.25% of the chips

If we fold here we have 80594 chips and 15.88%

If we call and lose we have 0 chips and 0%

If we call and win we have 192688 chips and 37.97%


From here I still don't know how to work out what sort of range we should be calling with. Since we more than double our equity when we win, I'm guessing that anything 50% or over we should be calling.

Well I'm glad I started this discussion, alot of interesting stuff thrown around.

LOL @ Wizz for not knowing my hand, sorry find that really funny :D

He had KJ, don't remember if suited or not, so I was 60-40 or 62.x-37.x

I guess it was a call then considering one 1 place gets paid, what if it was a normal structure, still a call? My logic says yes, because in a normal structure only top3, or top2 win the real money

He ofc got there on river, but that goes without saying ;)

Another one of those is starting in 10 min, about 100 in it, wish me luck ftw!
 
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atlantafalcons0

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Thanks for the info Wizzim.

After playing with the ICM calculator for a bit I remembered how the winner takes all affects the ICM. Basically the perctentage of chips in your stack is directly proportional to your equity.

In this example there are 507500 chips in play

Pre flop we have 92594 chips. This is 18.25% of the chips

If we fold here we have 80594 chips and 15.88%

If we call and lose we have 0 chips and 0%

If we call and win we have 192688 chips and 37.97%


From here I still don't know how to work out what sort of range we should be calling with. Since we more than double our equity when we win, I'm guessing that anything 50% or over we should be calling.

This only reinforces that a shove earlier would be the best play. If we're calling the shove with anything 50% or better - than we should be shoving a lot of hands preflop.

I guess.

 
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Well I'm glad I started this discussion, alot of interesting stuff thrown around.

LOL @ Wizz for not knowing my hand, sorry find that really funny :D

He had KJ, don't remember if suited or not, so I was 60-40 or 62.x-37.x

I guess it was a call then considering one 1 place gets paid, what if it was a normal structure, still a call? My logic says yes, because in a normal structure only top3, or top2 win the real money

He ofc got there on river, but that goes without saying ;)

Another one of those is starting in 10 min, about 100 in it, wish me luck ftw!

It doesn't matter what our chances are against his actual hand. All that matters is that we give him what you think is a good range and we make the correct decision against that.

If this was a normal tournament I think this would be closer to a fold. When playing a normal tournament our equity does not double when we double our chips so I don't think I would like to flip a coin while in this position.

This only reinforces that a shove earlier would be the best play. If we're calling the shove with anything 50% or better - than we should be shoving a lot of hands preflop.

I guess.


I think we are a little too deep here to be shoving pre flop. With antes it would be a different story but we still have 18bbs and an M of 12. We still have 3 people to act behind us who could easily wake up with a monster. By raising we still leave ourselves with an option of folding when someone shoves over the top of it but I guess it does make it a fairly tricky decision.
 
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I think we are a little too deep here to be shoving pre flop. With antes it would be a different story but we still have 18bbs and an M of 12. We still have 3 people to act behind us who could easily wake up with a monster. By raising we still leave ourselves with an option of folding when someone shoves over the top of it but I guess it does make it a fairly tricky decision.

This, a shove from a tight player would have probably made me fold it. Plus I have to keep stealing, so what do I do, raise small to steal with any two and when I have a decent hand shove? Bad idea.
 
atlantafalcons0

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It doesn't matter what our chances are against his actual hand. All that matters is that we give him what you think is a good range and we make the correct decision against that.

If this was a normal tournament I think this would be closer to a fold. When playing a normal tournament our equity does not double when we double our chips so I don't think I would like to flip a coin while in this position.




I think we are a little too deep here to be shoving pre flop. With antes it would be a different story but we still have 18bbs and an M of 12. We still have 3 people to act behind us who could easily wake up with a monster. By raising we still leave ourselves with an option of folding when someone shoves over the top of it but I guess it does make it a fairly tricky decision.

But with the structure being winner takes all, we need 500,000+ chips to win anything. I think we have to take some shots with the chips we have. It's 6 handed....

This hand is too strong to fold after you have raised. If you are for folding to the shove, you should have folded instead of open raising.

If you are going to call the shove anyway, why not open shove?

You're afraid to shove because you might get called by a monster but you'll call a shove after you've raised and got reraised?

In order to win this tournament we are gonna have to win in some marginal situations. Probably gonna have to get lucky even.

IMO - this structure changes endgame strategies a lot.
 
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atlantafalcons0

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This, a shove from a tight player would have probably made me fold it. Plus I have to keep stealing, so what do I do, raise small to steal with any two and when I have a decent hand shove? Bad idea.

No, how about shove when you have a good hand and fold when you have a bad hand? Yea, that makes more sense.

Who said anything about raising small to steal with any two?
 
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But with the structure being winner takes all, we need 500,000+ chips to win anything. I think we have to take some shots with the chips we have. It's 6 handed....

This hand is too strong to fold after you have raised. If you are for folding to the shove, you should have folded instead of open raising.

If you are going to call the shove anyway, why not open shove?

You're afraid to shove because you might get called by a monster but you'll call a shove after you've raised and got reraised?

In order to win this tournament we are gonna have to win in some marginal situations. Probably gonna have to get lucky even.

IMO - this structure changes endgame strategies a lot.


I do understand your argument but I still think we are too deep. I didn't say that I would call the shove, only consider it. I think we can fold this hand and still be in quite a comfortable position. Even when we fold we still have 16bbs left in our stack and we are still the third biggest stack at the table.

If you are shoving here with 18bbs and no antes then how deep does it stop? Are you shoving when we are 25bbs deep? or even 30? There has to be a point where the risk to reward ratio stops being in our favour and I think we are still above that point.
 
atlantafalcons0

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I do understand your argument but I still think we are too deep. I didn't say that I would call the shove, only consider it. I think we can fold this hand and still be in quite a comfortable position. Even when we fold we still have 16bbs left in our stack and we are still the third biggest stack at the table.

If you are shoving here with 18bbs and no antes then how deep does it stop? Are you shoving when we are 25bbs deep? or even 30? There has to be a point where the risk to reward ratio stops being in our favour and I think we are still above that point.

I would stop shoving with an "M" of 20.

Not all hands - but hands that rank to be the best at the table.

The structure is the most important thing here.
 
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Its quite a close call in this situation, he might be thinking you're going for a steal < I'm not sure if he'd be assuming this in this spot... with both blinds stacks being re-steal-sized shove stacks & only 1st getting paid, I'd think that most wouldn't be open-raising wide here w/o intentions of getting it ai when shoved back on (he might/should be assuming/thinking something similiar)., especially if you say you have been doing it frequently. He could be shoving with any ace < again I doubt it,.. if he's thinking along lines as I've suggested above, I'm pretty sure he'd be thinking that HERO has a decent hand as he'd be priced in to call a shove from the players in the blinds, but also any pocket pair, so it's close.

I would say fold but really not sure

I'm not sure but I'd probably fold to his shove. Factors weighing in favour of calling are obviously due to only 1st getting paid. Before I raise here I'm knowing what I'm going to do in this spot (ie. I'm calling blind shoves... but am I calling other bigger stack shove?).
I probably call & cry when I see AK,lol.
 
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I know it's close, my question is...is it worth folding knowing I'll be left with an M of just 7 in a couple of hands? Doesn't that mean I'll most likely have to get it in with worse very soon? I really don't know too much about tournament strategy, it just seems logical to me, don't get to M=7 if I can avoid it

"M" isn't necessarily relevant in all cases... especially if 'Q' is small. Often in micro buyin donkaments you'll see the entire final table sitting with <12bb's.. sometimes <10bb's. One needs to alter strategy accordingly.
Having an 'M' of 7 doesn't necessarily mean you'll be needing to get it in with worse. You're looking for spots to reship over a raise where you figure your hand is in decent shape vs. villain's range & preferably when you'll have fold equity. Shortly nobody will have fold equity (this one spot here might be the only time someone 'might')... imo
 
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It doesn't matter what our chances are against his actual hand. All that matters is that we give him what you think is a good range and we make the correct decision against that.

If this was a normal tournament I think this would be closer to a fold. When playing a normal tournament our equity does not double when we double our chips so I don't think I would like to flip a coin while in this position.


I agree with this ^

I think we are a little too deep here to be shoving pre flop. With antes it would be a different story but we still have 18bbs and an M of 12. We still have 3 people to act behind us who could easily wake up with a monster.< but I disagree with this, we're raise/calling them anyways. By raising we still leave ourselves with an option of folding when someone shoves over the top of it but I guess it does make it a fairly tricky decision.
Personally I think we want (or don't mind at all) to have someone shove after we raise here in this spot w AQ (except for the one guy, lol).. BUT.. because it's WTA... and if you really think he's shoving as wide as KJ+ (<?) then it's a SNAPCALL... super easy,.. smash the mouse button call.
After hearing the range you put villain on.... 'super easy call' is my final answer, lol. (am I kicked out of the cashcab?)
 
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