Flush Draw on the bubble

spore

spore

Rock Star
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May 4, 2006
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491
At first I think this will look like a bad play. I say that because, I put almost all my money in with a draw. However; my decision to go for the draw was purely results-oriented in that, it had to do with the prize structure.

As you can see there was a big stack with over 6k, and the other 3 of us right around 3k. This is a 10-player $3 turbo on Stars. So, it pays 3 places. Basically everybody was all-in on this hand except the big stack, who had about half his chips in. I ended up with all but 20 chips in. All but all-in.

Okay, here's the deal. 3rd-place gets $6, which is $2.60 over the buy-in. Don't remember what 2nd place gets, but 1st gets $15.

My thinking here was, the flush would almost assuredly win the pot, and I have an overcard. So, I have 11 outs. A bit less than 50% of the time I'm going to win this. And in this situation if I win, I am almost assured of a 1st-place win.

So, let's assume that if I don't win, I'm knocked out.. but if I do win I get 1st. Now that's not going to always be the case, I could get a huge chip-lead and lose it, or be crippled and come back to win.. but for analysis let's assume this.

If I lose I lose $3.40, if I win I'll profit $11.60. So break even is around 30% (someone check my math). If I win this situation 30% of the time I'll break even, more than that and I profit.

So, that was my thinking. Is that good logic? Maybe not, that's why I'm asking. Oh, and btw.. I don't know if I should have raised all-in on the flop or not. As it turned out, I ended up with a "chip and a prayer". But at least I didn't get knocked out. And the all-in raise would have been pointless.

I've had a rough run at the SnG's here lately, but have been profiting at the ring games. So I'm about breaking even. In my 3 SnG's yesterday.. I went from chip leader to out in 3rd place on two bad beats in a row, then this tourney, then 2nd hand in to my 3rd SnG, I pulled pocket Kings.. flopped top-set, raised all-in, and got called by a Ace-rag suited that hit the flush on the river.

So I think my play has been pretty good, but this is one that I wasn't quite sure what to do. But, I figured it would be profitable in the long-run.

Stacks:
- HKImpact with 3055 - grafik369 with 6025 - MindSpore with 3130 - vitesse76 with 2790

index.pl


index.pl

Blinds: 100/200
Site: pokerstars
* - Dealt to MindSpore:
ks.gif
3s.gif

* - Sklansky group 7
Preflop:
* - vitesse76 raises 200 to 400 hkimpact calls [400]
* - grafik369 calls [300]
* - mindspore calls [200]
* - Potsize: 1600
Flop:
2s.gif
qh.gif
ts.gif

* - grafik369 bets [600]
* - mindspore calls [600]
* - vitesse76 raises 1765 to 2365 [ all-in ] hkimpact calls [2365]
* - grafik369 calls [1765]
* - mindspore calls [1765]
* - Potsize: 11060
Turn:
6d.gif

* - grafik369: checks
* - MindSpore: checks hkimpact bets [265] [ all-in ]
* - grafik369 calls [265]
* - mindspore calls [265]
* - Potsize: 11855
River:
7c.gif

* - grafik369 bets [200]
* - Folds: 1
Results:
* - grafik369 shows a pair of Tens:
jh.gif
tc.gif

* - HKImpact shows a pair of Queens:
qc.gif
jd.gif
HKImpact collected 795 from side pot
* - vitesse76 shows a pair of Queens - Ace kicker:
ad.gif
qd.gif

* - vitesse76 collected 11160 from main pot

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DeuceMag

DeuceMag

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I kind of agree with what you did. I dont agree with the call on the flop with a raise and a call in front of you, since the person that raised had less chips than you. odds are that vitesse and impact had something and were going to knock each other out - leaving you in 3rd place. That leaves you in 3rd and in position to go all in on at a later point. Just my 2 cents.
 
spore

spore

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Total posts
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Yeah, I understand that. But, if I had stayed out and let them go at it. I would be left in 3rd place at a serious disadvantage. 1st and 2nd in chips probably would have ganged up on me and it would have been hard to finish higher than 3rd.

So I gave up an almost assured 3rd-place finish for a shot at an almost assured 1st-place finish. And by my numbers if I win this situation 30% of the time or more it's a profitable situation.

More discussion please!?
 
V

viking999

Visionary
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Jul 4, 2005
Total posts
512
IMO the only reason to fold this hand is if you're very confident you're up against the ace high flush draw.

You have a 4-way all-in hand, and you're 2nd in chips. That means that unless 4th in chips ends up with the best hand AND 3rd in chips ends up with the 2nd best hand, you will cash. If the chip leader wins, you get 2nd place. If you win (33% at least), you're guaranteed 2nd and have a big lead heads up. If only one of 3rd and 4th place win, you get 3rd. You're almost guaranteed to cash, and you have a good shot at placing much better.

If you fold, you're almost guaranteed to cash, but you're chances of finishing better are much lower.

Given that you saw the flop, I don't think there's any excuse for not getting all your chips in this pot.

Edit: So basically I'm saying that your assumption (if I win the hand I win the tournament, and if I lose the hand I get nothing) vastly underestimates the benefit of playing this draw, because even if you lose the hand you almost always get at least 3rd place.
 
Last edited:
Cheetah

Cheetah

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The buy-in should not be considered in the calculation. Consider this money gone.

To determine whether to play the flush draw, we have to calculate the $EV when you play it and when you fold it.

Assuming 2 of the players have a Q and the other has TT or TJ+, you are about 36% to win.

Let's assume that if you win this pot, you will finish in 1st place 80% of the time, 2nd place 10% of the time and 3rd 10% of the time.

Let us also assume that if you lose, 64% of the time one of the short stacks will lose as well giving you 3rd place and 32% of the time both short stacks will lose giving you 2nd place. The other 4% is when both short stacks win(with a tie).

With these assumptions, we have:

$EV(play) = 36%*(80%*$15 + 10%*$9 + 10%*$6) + 64%*(32%*$9 + 64%*$6)
= 36%*$13.50 + 64%*$6.72
= $4.86 + $4.30
= $9.16

where $15, $9 and $6 are the prizes for 1st, 2nd and 3rd place.

If you fold, let's assume again that 64% of the time one of the short stacks will lose, 32% of the time both will lose and 4% they will tie.

When they both win, you are of course out in 4th place.

When one of them wins, you will have about the same chips as grafik and half the big stack. Let's say you will win 25% of the time and end up in 2nd or 3rd place 75% of the time(this assumption is based on the relative chip stacks).

When both short stacks are out, you will have 3k and grafik about 12k. So let's assume that you will win 20% of the time and finish 2nd 80% of the time.

With these assumptions, we have:

$EV(fold) = 64%*(25%*$15 + 75%*($6+$9)/2) + 32%*(20%*$15 + 80%*$9)
= 64%*$9.375 + 32%*$10.20
= $6 + $3.26 =
= $9.26

So,

$EV(play) = $9.16
$EV(fold) = $9.26

Since the margin of error in our assumptions is much bigger than 1%, the $EV from both plays is the same.

However, the variance from folding is smaller than the variance of playing the flush. Therefore, the correct play is to fold.
 
skoldpadda

skoldpadda

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Melkor

Melkor

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This is correct, I would say. To call a raise with K3s pre-flop on the bubble OOP with the raise coming UTG is just asking for trouble. It is a garbage hand. Just throw it away and let the other three players get involved.
 
Emperor IX

Emperor IX

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Don't consider a K with a 3 kicker as an overcard out for future references.
 
Cheetah

Cheetah

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I agree that this hand should be folded pre-flop. However, the OP asked what to do on the flop with a flush draw. We can pretend he had AJs preflop to justify his call.:D
 
skoldpadda

skoldpadda

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I agree that this hand should be folded pre-flop. However, the OP asked what to do on the flop with a flush draw. We can pretend he had AJs preflop to justify his call.:D


While I realize this and will defer to the MOTM's excellent reply post and analysis, the importance of folding PF must be stated over and over to penetrate skull of OP. I believe it was Matt Matros who called this situation a black hole or something else clever as this and he replies to his students that you shouldn't need to figure out how to get out of this situation if you never put yourself into it in the first place. This situation is one of those black holes... or whatever it was that he called it. I'm sure AG will post the original article within the hour since he always has an amazing way of finding these things and posting them.
 
DeuceMag

DeuceMag

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Thanks for the breakdown Cheetah. I knew it was a close call either way. Slightly better odds towards folding.
 
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