Flopped set vs freaky board $2+.20 mtt

[jaketrevvor]

Only 15th hand or so but already I've got a shockingly LAG image. Villain has called a 3x raise PF with Q6s and in general looks pretty loose/passive-donkishnewbface. Anyhoo scary board - apart from crying what's our action

Seat 1: LilWheels99 (1,440)
Seat 2: hollaz (1,410)
Seat 3: jaketrevvor (1,883)
Seat 4: Lookatthisface (2,337)
Seat 5: A 9 X LX (790)
Seat 6: Whitnit (1,155)
Seat 7: KrazyK831 (1,455)
Seat 8: stjo (1,575)
Seat 9: Joo Martin (1,455)
A 9 X LX posts the small blind of 20
Whitnit posts the big blind of 40
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to jaketrevvor [6c 6h]
KrazyK831 folds
stjo has 15 seconds left to act
stjo raises to 80
Joo Martin folds
LilWheels99 folds
hollaz folds
jaketrevvor calls 80
Lookatthisface calls 80
A 9 X LX folds
Whitnit folds
*** FLOP *** [6d 7h 9h]
stjo has 15 seconds left to act
stjo bets 160
jaketrevvor raises to 480
Lookatthisface has 15 seconds left to act
Lookatthisface folds
stjo has 15 seconds left to act
stjo raises to 1,495, and is all in
jaketrevvor ???

 

[c9h13no3]

A flopped straight seems unlikely since its either [T8] or [58], and if the flopped straight has no re-draw to a flush then we're 40/60 with them. At worst we're 34/66 if he's got [Th8h]. Its possible someone with the straight would push to protect from a flush draw, but newbies generally go into trap mode when they flop stuff like this.

The other types of hands that would push at us are either a paired draw, or a set/two pair. Hands like 89 suited are definately in his range to min-raise with preflop.

He min-raised, so hands like TT+ are probably out.

If it were my guess, since he likes playing sooted cards, he's prolly playing something like [Kh8h] or some 89 suited hand.

I think I'd call here and get my lucky charms out and hope he doesn't get there on his draw. Folding a set to donkeys is usually a losing move in the long run, since they're rarely holding something that strong when they push at you.

 

[royalburrito24]

pay it off or get paid...

cant fold a set here unless you got a large reason to believe you are dead to the boat

a donk could also be doing this with just an 8

 

[jaketrevvor]

The trouble is I can see villain making this move with a draw or to protect against a draw, and T8 is easily in his shockingly loose range - but then again so is AA..

 

[royalburrito24]

The trouble is I can see villain making this move with a draw or to protect against a draw, and T8 is easily in his shockingly loose range - but then again so is AA..

Doyle Brunson has said in his book that you cannot get away from a flopped set except with 3 to a flush on the flop or something along those lines.


but I am not getting away from this, and I do not think anyone is.

There are too many hands that he could have that you have beat, such as any overpair, 97, 98, heart draw, open end draw.

But judging by the intent of this thread, I am guessing he had 10 8 and you missed your 7 outer to the flop, and 10 outer to the river to get felted.


IMO there is nothing you can really do about it if he flopped the nuts, you just gotta pay it off.

 

[switch0723]

if he had you beat then so be it, but i reckon he has overpair or pair with straight draw. Got to call

 

[aliengenius]

my donk call

It's tough to fold a set, even if you know you are beat.

fulltiltpoker Game #4445498781: Cardschat $100 Added Buyin (30641995), Table 2 - 40/80 - No Limit Hold'em - 12:42:40 ET - 2007/12/09
Seat 1: combuboom (1,955)
Seat 2: zingbust (1,610)
Seat 3: dakota-xx (875)
Seat 4: beardyian (3,025)
Seat 5: aliengenius (2,620)
Seat 6: AnnoDomino (1,150)
Seat 7: emk4976 (2,240)
Seat 8: imbiancone (3,725)
Seat 9: gamedemon (1,505)
emk4976 posts the small blind of 40
imbiancone posts the big blind of 80
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to aliengenius [10c] [10h]
gamedemon folds
AnnoDomino:
combuboom folds
aliengenius: lol ur in shove mode?
zingbust folds
dakota-xx folds
beardyian folds
aliengenius raises to 200
AnnoDomino folds
emk4976 folds
imbiancone calls 120
*** FLOP *** [Kc] [Qd] [10d]
imbiancone checks
emk4976 is feeling angry
aliengenius bets 385
imbiancone calls 385
*** TURN *** [Kc Qd Td] [8s]
AnnoDomino has been disconnected
AnnoDomino has reconnected
imbiancone checks
aliengenius checks
*** RIVER *** [Kc Qd Td 8s] [9s]
imbiancone bets 1,200
aliengenius calls 1,200
*** SHOW DOWN ***
imbiancone shows [Ah] [Jh] a straight, Ace high
aliengenius mucks
imbiancone wins the pot (3,610) with a straight, Ace high
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3,610 | Rake 0
Board: [Kc Qd Td 8s 9s]
Seat 1: combuboom didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: zingbust didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: dakota-xx didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: beardyian didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: aliengenius mucked [Tc Th] - three of a kind, Tens
Seat 6: AnnoDomino (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: emk4976 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 8: imbiancone (big blind) showed [Ah Jh] and won (3,610) with a straight, Ace high
Seat 9: gamedemon didn't bet (folded)

This should be a standard fold. He just doesn't lead without the jack, right? I mean, does two pair lead the river on this board? Not likely. The turn and river should have saved me here, but lately I have been playing so badly.

 

[ChuckTs]

Easy stack here. We're only behind 99, 77 and T8 - if villain is extremely lag he could be doing this with any overpair, 8s, A9, a combo draw, a naked flush draw, overcards...

 

[blankoblanco]

Only 15th hand or so but already I've got a shockingly LAG image. Villain has called a 3x raise PF with Q6s and in general looks pretty loose/passive-donkishnewbface. Anyhoo scary board - apart from crying what's our action

crying? more like fistpumping. and calling. donkishnewbfaces who are passive still think an overpair/A9 is the nuts here and play it as such

if he's passive i doubt he raises T8 PF. we're crushed by only two realistic hands in the deck, and we crush many, many more. furthermore, even if he did have T8 here, and he exposed it face up, it would still be a snap call, DUCY?

 

[jaketrevvor]

crying? more like fistpumping. and calling. donkishnewbfaces who are passive still think an overpair/A9 is the nuts here and play it as such

if he's passive i doubt he raises T8 PF. we're crushed by only two realistic hands in the deck, and we crush many, many more. furthermore, even if he did have T8 here, and he exposed it face up, it would still be a snap call, DUCY?

Yay someone has finally pointed out that his hand is irrelavent as even with the nuts (T8) since the pot is at 1955 (I think) and to call is 1015, I'm actually getting odds on a call anyway :banghead: When I posted I hadn't noticed this (oops ) but I'm shocked that no one else did until combu!

Anyway at the time I called figuring him to be a donkinshnewbface and lo and behold he flips over two black 8s, and to my utter shock my 6s held

EDIT: shizzle I forgot about pocket 7s and 9s...just pretend they don't exist.

 

[zachvac]

Yay someone has finally pointed out that his hand is irrelavent as even with the nuts (T8) since the pot is at 1955 (I think) and to call is 1015, I'm actually getting odds on a call anyway :banghead: When I posted I hadn't noticed this (oops ) but I'm shocked that no one else did until combu!

Anyway at the time I called figuring him to be a donkinshnewbface and lo and behold he flips over two black 8s, and to my utter shock my 6s held

EDIT: shizzle I forgot about pocket 7s and 9s...just pretend they don't exist.

But even if you think he'd only do this with 77, 99, T8, or 85, you're pretty much a 2:1 dog. Add in the high flush draws that think they have 15 outs but really only have 8 partial outs, and even if they hit one you have a redraw to 10 outs. Now if they flip their cards over and show a set, THEN you can fold, given that you are now 10% to win. But there are several hands that if I were in their positions I have no reason to assume are behind (AKh, etc) yet are WAY behind you here. Insta-call.

 

[royalburrito24]

pay it off or get paid...

cant fold a set here unless you got a large reason to believe you are dead to the boat

a donk could also be doing this with just an 8

just to point out I believe I came the closest with this statement, but that could be argued against as well.

 

[jaketrevvor]

just to point out I believe I came the closest with this statement, but that could be argued against as well.

Goshdarnit! I made a mental note that when I posted the results I would especially congratulate you for estimating his donk factor poifictly.. Ah well - belated cyber hi5 will have to suffice *smash*