Flop trips, ugly turn-What do I do?

[vanquish]

Ah, I see. Do you know where I can read more about the Sklansky-Chubukov ranking?

i think NL: TAP has a chapter on it. basically there's a chart for each hand and it tells you the maximum stack sizes with which you can unexpoitably open shove a given hand in heads up NLHE. so if a hand's sklansky-chubukov ranking is 5.5, you want to have 5.5 BBs or less in your stack to be able to just open shove and be unexploitable and +EV. thus, AA has an infinite sklansky-chubukov ranking, and subsequent hands go in descending order. you can google for the graph. (its pretty useful for heads up endgame, and HU SNGs as well)

 

[ph_il]

Cool.
Thanks, Vanq.

 

[BillyTheBull]

This is a shove preflop. Completing the SB is just asking for trouble.

Umm . . . I can see a shove on the flop (actually, that would have been a great option, imo), but PF? Plenty of chips, not much pressure from the blinds, why risk 2/3 of your stack w/ 34o on the off-chance that the SB is limping w/ a big pair, big A, etc. and just waiting to pounce? Then again, this was a $1 SnG . . . so that's as much as I'm gonna contribute to this thread.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

effectives of ~7 BBs
sklansky-chubukov ranking for 43o: 2.366073 = follllllllllllllld preflop

sklansky-chubukov assumes that villain knows your hand. But what really happens is that villain can only know your range, not your actual hand. So he will fold a lot more than he would if he knew the actual hand.

I don't think villain calls a pre-flop push with more than 30% of his hands here, and with that number, open-shoving 43o IS profitable.

 

[vanquish]

sklansky-chubukov assumes that villain knows your hand. But what really happens is that villain can only know your range, not your actual hand. So he will fold a lot more than he would if he knew the actual hand.

I don't think villain calls a pre-flop push with more than 30% of his hands here, and with that number, open-shoving 43o IS profitable.

it assumes that he plays optimally against your range. it's basically foolproof, whereas open shoving 43o is quite marginal.

 

[CfPoker]

third worst after 42, I guess.

Anyway, I would probably shove 32 too. I'm pretty sure the correct open-shoving range here is ATC. And I hate to be results oriented, but in this case, open shoving probably gets K5 to fold, so we'd be up 1200 instead of down 3200...

I'll let you do this against me preflop once or twice. The third time when it becomes apparant you're doing it with ATC I'm calling you with K5 all day long. I find with heads up play that even with low Ms there's still a lot of play involved, and I prefer to avoid the aipfs if possible. However, if I'm against an opponent who seems to have this as his only move I'll happily call them with a better than average hand.

 

[dj11]

Knowing full well that it will be a 5 thats beats us if anything beats us, I call here. The likelihood is that villain has a hi pair, or maybe only royal cards.

 

[Bentheman87]

His M is about 4, a little higher, and you're M is about 7. You guys are discussing this hand like both players have high Ms, just put him all in on the river. You might get a call from a king. It looks to me like villian has nothing, or maybe something like king 3 or king 2.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

it assumes that he plays optimally against your range. it's basically foolproof, whereas open shoving 43o is quite marginal.

No, sklansky-chubukov does not assume villain plays optimally against your RANGE. It assumes villain plays optimally against your HAND.

If you apply slansky-chubukov in HU play with high blinds, you will play much too tight and end up blinded out.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

I'll let you do this against me preflop once or twice. The third time when it becomes apparant you're doing it with ATC I'm calling you with K5 all day long. I find with heads up play that even with low Ms there's still a lot of play involved, and I prefer to avoid the aipfs if possible. However, if I'm against an opponent who seems to have this as his only move I'll happily call them with a better than average hand.

And that's a great line for me. If you start with an M of 4.5, let me steal the pot twice gets you down to 2.5, then we coin-flip K5 vs. 43 when you are 63% favorite, your EV after those 3 hands is only 3.15.

 

[ph_il]

Some very good points, Belgo.

Im surprised this hand has sparked up this much discussion.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

Final remark from me on this thread: I think open-shoving is the correct way to play this hand as shoving ATC at this point is an unexploitable strategy.

Yet, against villains that typically play too tight at this stage, it's probably more +eV to use a slightly less aggressive approach and include a few checks, calls or folds for variety and aim for a strategy where you are only a little more aggressive overall than villain. That way you don't educate him into calling your shoves with the proper range. But it's meta play, so it does apply stricto sensu to a Hands Analysis forum.

 

[robwhufc]

Final remark from me on this thread

I think your strategy is stupid.

Ha ha, you can't respond to me!

 

[arkadiy]

If I had the 5, I would have played it very similarly to the way he played it. I would have thought best hand on the flop but make a small bet to be sure. Then I would say miracle turn and make a bet that you both call and still don't think I hit a 5.

I don't put him on a 5 though I put him on just about any pocket pair (excluding 44, 55, and KK) or an A high kicker.


Btw, I raise to 4800 here / shove.

 

[feitr]

Slow playing any hand in HU is a terrible idea unless you are playing vs a maniac. Just check raise to like 2500 or shove this after the flop.