final table of loyalers, should I have folded here?

[titans4ever]

What do you do here? I whited out the rest of the hand so you can peek after you look at it.

full tilt poker Game #2061781373: Cardschat.com Loyaler FR (14216988), Table 3 - 500/1000 Ante 125 - No Limit Hold'em - 19:48:46 ET - 2007/03/24
Seat 1: LittleWonder (7,914)
Seat 3: titans4ever (8,137)
Seat 4: Kenzie 96 (20,015)
Seat 8: SHERMSTICK (9,723)
Seat 9: pokerrqueeen (14,211)
LittleWonder antes 125
titans4ever antes 125
Kenzie 96 antes 125
SHERMSTICK antes 125
pokerrqueeen antes 125
LittleWonder posts the small blind of 500
titans4ever posts the big blind of 1,000
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to titans4ever [7c 7d]
pokerrqueeen: maybe?
Kenzie 96 raises to 5,000
SHERMSTICK: bump it now im all in again
SHERMSTICK has 15 seconds left to act
Amador_Ed (Observer): Bill Hollorian?
SHERMSTICK raises to 9,598, and is all in
pokerrqueeen folds
LittleWonder folds
pokerrqueeen: gl
beardyian (Observer): its ruined what could have been a fun FT
titans4ever folds
Qhr1s0 (Observer): littlewonder, if you are a loyaler, pm me on cc i promise not to tell anyone who you are
Kenzie 96 calls 4,598
SHERMSTICK shows [6c 6d]
Kenzie 96 shows [Qc Ks]
*** FLOP *** [Ts 5d 3c]
Amador_Ed (Observer): colin_147?
*** TURN *** [Ts 5d 3c] [Ad]
pokerrqueeen: it is that yahoo spyder
*** RIVER *** [Ts 5d 3c Ad] [7s]
Qhr1s0 (Observer): i just wanna lol to myself
SHERMSTICK shows a pair of Sixes
Kenzie 96 shows Ace King high
SHERMSTICK wins the pot (21,321) with a pair of Sixes
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 21,321 | Rake 0
Board: [Ts 5d 3c Ad 7s]
Seat 1: LittleWonder (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 3: titans4ever (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: Kenzie 96 showed [Qc Ks] and lost with Ace King high
Seat 8: SHERMSTICK showed [6c 6d] and won (21,321) with a pair of Sixes
Seat 9: pokerrqueeen (button) folded before the Flop

 

[dj11]

yes

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Easy fold, don't be results-oriented.

 

[dj11]

After peeking,

NO!

 

[Irexes]

Fold in a heartbeat.

 

[tosborn]

I don't think so titans. Your little stack with two big raises behind you. I've seen the hand so I know the result, but, with a 5BB raise and an all-in behind you I get away from this too.

 

[FlopDeezNutz]

In this situation, I think that this is an easy call.
-Raiser 1 made a standard preflop raise, nothing indicating a made hand or any true strength.
-Raiser 2 made the standard re-raise, most likely to eliminate any callers and to try and take the pot down on the spot.
-You are sitting at the table with less than 8x BB, which indicates that you will either be blinded out shortly, or be forced to make an all in move with a lesser hand shortly if you have any hope of improving your tournament standing.
-You have a high reward possibility here. If you call, raiser 1 will likely get out of the way because he will be up against 2 all in hands. Not a call you want to make with a less than solid starting hand. Based on betting here, I would put raiser 2 on a hand like Ax suited (likely 2 face cards), or even a small pocket pair trying to take the pot on the spot.

*(edited after origionally posting and checking hand results to see how far my read was off).
My read was pretty good. I was close on Kenzie's starting hand, as he had 2 face cards, and Sherm had a small pocket pair that he hoped would hold up. You were at a stage in the tourney where you had to make a move to improve your standing for later, and you could have tripled up here, which would have made you dangerous.

 

[skoldpadda]

I think you can play it either way. If you don't play the next hand in the SB, you're down to <7BB. Another orbit and it's about 5BB... do you think you'll get a better hand in the next 10 hands than pocket 7s? Chances of a pocket pair are 1/16 hands. Personally I shove.

 

[titans4ever]

I was not being results results-oriented. I like my play here. This was a critical hand for the tournament. It was my first real hard decision. I just thought it was worth talking about since it was at the final table and wanted to see what others would do?

 

[jayneseo]

Who is littlewonder?

 

[ChuckTs]

As mentioned, easy fold + don't be results-oriented just because you would have tripled up. Think about it; Kenz (TAG) raises 5BBs, sherm pushes him, and you're sitting on 77. Easy fold.

You are shortstacked and need to make a move soon, but I much prefer pushing first in with say A8 than calling 3-way with 7s.

In this situation, I think that this is an easy call.
-Raiser 1 made a standard preflop raise, nothing indicating a made hand or any true strength. Kenzie is a very TAG player, and a raise of this size means strength. He might be bullying (he was), but I might even fold my 77 to his raise had sherm not even entered the pot.
-Raiser 2 made the standard re-raise, most likely to eliminate any callers and to try and take the pot down on the spot. He can't take the pot down with a <2X reraise; kenzie has to call. He knows kenzie has to call, and has to have a strong enough holding to go to showdown. I'm actually pretty surprised he pushed with 66.
-You are sitting at the table with less than 8x BB, which indicates that you will either be blinded out shortly, or be forced to make an all in move with a lesser hand shortly if you have any hope of improving your tournament standing. As I said above, you have to prefer pushing with that first in vigourish rather than calling 3-way with 77.
-You have a high reward possibility here. If you call, raiser 1 will likely get out of the way because he will be up against 2 all in hands. Not a call you want to make with a less than solid starting hand. Based on betting here, I would put raiser 2 on a hand like Ax suited (likely 2 face cards), or even a small pocket pair trying to take the pot on the spot. True we have a high reward possibility, but it's not worth the risk IMO. We can wait for a better spot. Kenzie would have to call roughly 4600 into a 26200 pot, giving him nearly 6:1 odds. He can't fold with any holding there.

 

[titans4ever]

This is why I posted it and my thoughts during the hand.

With a raise and all-in in front of me I have to give repect to at least one of the hands. I knew Kenzie was going to call no matter what I did. If i pushed also, the pot was going to be huge but....I have 77. The fence rider of pocket pairs. 6 of them are larger than mine and 6 are lower. I have to assume one of them does have a pocket pair. Is it bigger or smaller than mine?

What are my outcomes here.....
1)Kenzie and Sherm have 4 overs on me (AJ and K10 or something like that) I may have the best hand but I am not even close to 50% to actually win the hand. 12x2x5=124% for them to hit an overcard card. Did not know how to do that math on the spot to get accurate chances but did not like the odds i came up with. Yuk

2)One has weak Ax (kicker lower than 7) and the other a strong one. that means 3 overs but only 2 As left so drawing to 8 cards between them to beat me. 8x2x5=80% chance they will hit one of them anyway. Double Yuk

One of them has a large PP and I am dominated. I am drawing to 2 cards. Triple yuk

Both have smaller pocket pairs below my 77. Yeah for me.

Both have same hand like AK. They are only drawing to 4 cards between them. 4x2x5=40% that still only leaves me a 60% favorite to win the hand.

3 of the 5 ways it could go that ran through my head were not appealing to me in the slightest. I saw the big pot brewing but did not think it in my best interest to pull the trigger at that time.

 

[FlopDeezNutz]

As mentioned, easy fold + don't be results-oriented just because you would have tripled up. Think about it; Kenz (TAG) raises 5BBs, sherm pushes him, and you're sitting on 77. Easy fold.

You are shortstacked and need to make a move soon, but I much prefer pushing first in with say A8 than calling 3-way with 7s.

What about the increasing blinds, and the cost of waiting for a better hand to push with?
If you wait 10 hands for a better spot, you are allowing the blinds to eat half of your stack. So even if you did push and double up, you would be back in the same position that you are in right now, with a higher blind structure and facing more marginal situations to simply maintain.
Everything at this stage is going to be a crapshoot because you don't have a huge stack, and each hand that you play will likely be for all of your chips preflop. At least 77 is a marginal made hand, which I would rather play in this situation opposed to a marginal unmade hand.

 

[dj11]

At some point you HAVE to be results oriented. Else you fold you AA when the board flops a str8 possibility, or the flush draw, or a pair.

I thought about this overnight, and given the table was short, and Titan was short stacked, he should have called.

Fortune favors the bold.

The results of not being result oriented have already been achieved, he's ITM. This was the time to PLAY poker not work poker.

 

[ChuckTs]

What about the increasing blinds, and the cost of waiting for a better hand to push with?

The thing is that you don't have to wait for a better hand to push with. I'll gladly take pushing first in with K9 with TAGs in the blinds rather than this sticky situation with the 7s; you'll take the pot down a huge percent of the time. I do see your point though, and it's actually a little closer than I'd originally though, but I still prefer folding and using first-in vigor to start attacking the blinds.

If you wait 10 hands for a better spot, you are allowing the blinds to eat half of your stack. So even if you did push and double up, you would be back in the same position that you are in right now, with a higher blind structure and facing more marginal situations to simply maintain.

As I mentioned, we don't wait for a better hand to push with. Pushing and calling a push are two completely different things. When we push, we have that first in vigor (especially if the table + we are TAG) and we can take down the massive blinds a huge percent of the time. Even if we push with say KJ and get called by AQ, we're still %35-%40 to win as opposed to roughly <%30 here with the 77s (correct me if I'm wrong with that number).

Everything at this stage is going to be a crapshoot because you don't have a huge stack, and each hand that you play will likely be for all of your chips preflop. At least 77 is a marginal made hand, which I would rather play in this situation opposed to a marginal unmade hand.

Don't mistake low-M play for a crapshoot. There are still plenty of places to use skillful play rather than just 'gambling'.

See bold.

and:

Qhr1s0 (Observer): littlewonder, if you are a loyaler, pm me on cc i promise not to tell anyone who you are

lol nice try Chris :/

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

(i really wouldn't have told anyone - i keep my promises. i just wanted to know if he was a loyaler so i could basically spend all night laughing. for all you know he could have told me and i could be keeping quiet! >_>)

FDN,

We are shortstacked. We have to make a move. With 8BBs however, we still have fold equity. Therefore we can either (a) get a favourable hand soon and push, (b) encounter a favourable situation soon and push (i.e. folded to on CO/button), or (c) we can fold for a bit and push when we really have no other choice.

The thing is here, well let's take a look at the three points. (a) our hand isn't that favourable, it's 77, (b) the situation isn't favourable, someone has raised so much UTG+1 that he is committing himself to call a shove from anywhere, and another player, knowing this, has pushed. Our 77, against the ranges, is no good here (FWIW the shove with 66 and no fold equity is bad in itself). When we're short but not desperately short, fold equity is crucial. I would rather shove my next button if folded to with any two cards than call here with 77. Finally of course (c) we're not utterly desperate yet, we can still fold for an orbit or two and have some fold equity left when we do decide to shove.

With <5k in chips we call. With >40k in chips I guess we could shove over the top. With our stack as it is, however, we fold.

Really, this is a very, very easy fold guys, and a prime example of why you don't post results straight away in HA threads, because everyone thinks they're a genius when they can see them.

 

[Dingodaddy23]

dorkus is the only one that ever makes posts that make any sense / describe any decent poker strategy. stop posting OBVIOUS hands people, wtf

aren't you tired of describing BASIC poker strategy every single post dorkus?

 

[ChuckTs]

FDN,

We are shortstacked. We have to make a move. With 8BBs however, we still have fold equity. Therefore we can either (a) get a favourable hand soon and push, (b) encounter a favourable situation soon and push (i.e. folded to on CO/button), or (c) we can fold for a bit and push when we really have no other choice.

The thing is here, well let's take a look at the three points. (a) our hand isn't that favourable, it's 77, (b) the situation isn't favourable, someone has raised so much UTG+1 that he is committing himself to call a shove from anywhere, and another player, knowing this, has pushed. Our 77, against the ranges, is no good here (FWIW the shove with 66 and no fold equity is bad in itself). When we're short but not desperately short, fold equity is crucial. I would rather shove my next button if folded to with any two cards than call here with 77. Finally of course (c) we're not utterly desperate yet, we can still fold for an orbit or two and have some fold equity left when we do decide to shove.

With <5k in chips we call. With >40k in chips I guess we could shove over the top. With our stack as it is, however, we fold.

Really, this is a very, very easy fold guys, and a prime example of why you don't post results straight away in HA threads, because everyone thinks they're a genius when they can see them.

Simple, concise and to the point as usual. rep+