Final Table Bubble: Call or Fold with 99?

brackdog

brackdog

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Final table bubble of a 900+ player freeroll. I'm in 8th place overall. BB on my left is table captain and has been running over everyone on almost every hand. Needless to say, I'm not having much fun sitting on his right.

CO is tournament small stack. Has been very quiet, but doubled up on previous hand (against BB) playing 22 all in.

What do I do with my 99 here? Prize pool in these freerolls is heavily weighted towards final table. 10th pays .75, 9th pays $1.25, 1st is ≈$17.


Full Tilt - Poker Curious Freeroll (#209435995) - Blinds: 2500/5000 No Limit Hold'em (5 players)
Full Tilt Hand Converter Tool from CardsChat.com

SB Hero: $60044
BB: $274700
UTG: $149273
CO: $46014
BTN: $106372

Pre-flop: ($7500) Hero is SB and dealt :9c4: :9d4:
UTG folds, CO raises $45414, BTN folds, Hero ???

Sorry if this should be in Hand Analysis, as it turns out, this is more of a strategy issue for me.

bd
 
Last edited:
cjatud2012

cjatud2012

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Lol, yeah I moved it to Hand Analysis.

The correct move ultimately depends on the payout structure, but I don't think you can put the CO on a very narrow range here, he has like 5 adjusted bb's and just shoved 22 last hand, so more often than not I'm shoving this.
 
TheKAAHK

TheKAAHK

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I feel in this spot you are flipping but ahead of most of CO's range here. Knowing the blinds would be nice for a better idea of the overall situation, but most of the time I'm re-shoving this spot.
 
brackdog

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Sorry. Blinds are 2500/5000, 600 ante.

bd
 
loopmeister

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Methinks you're going to struggle to win this tourney with a stack of 60k.

CO is shoving lots of hands that you crush and plenty others you're flipping against. Re-pop here imho.
 
takethepain

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I agree with above. You shouldn't be afraid of crashing out in 10th IMO anyway. The Big Money is 1st, not 10th or even 9th, and you need every chip you can get to help you get there. Easy shove IMO
 
L

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As above...probably have to call. The only merit to a fold would be if you intend to open up and collect some blinds. The thing about the bully being on your left is that he can't really bully you if you shove into him. He needs to wake up with cards to call you. So consider folding this only if you're willing to basically shove ATC next hand (or about any hand that it folds to you).
 
brackdog

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In the event, I folded my 99, big-stacked BB folded (*groan*) and CO flips over 88 (**GROAN**). I became the small stack on this hand and never recovered, finishing on the ft bubble.

In my head, the main reason for folding was to avoid creating lucrative pot odds for the BB, who had called (and won) several shoves with a range of hands, some very marginal (Kx, 10-8 off). If I call, he's getting a hair over 2:1 pot odds to call, and I figured he would with anything playable. That he didn't call CO's bet suggests he had a very weak hand, but he's behind me so I'm nervous. I was genuinely surprised he didn't call.

Tentative, timid play is a huge problem for me on the money bubble and the final table bubble on those rare times when I get there. This hand taught me a lesson I will remember: the results of timid play are the same as the worst-case results of strong play. Only the latter gives you a chance to advance.

bD
 
B

BigBelle

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I think your hand demonstrates the problem of bad position. This is an easy call if you are the last to act. But, because of the real concern of the big stack behind you, your decision becomes much more complicated than just evaluating your odds against the raiser. One often piece of advice given on this forum is not being results oriented. I think you are allowing the actual results of the hand cloud the fact that pocket 9's don't do well in multi-way pots and from the way you described the BB it was a very real possibility to be in a three way pot with a medium pair.
 
Pascal-lf

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Snap call - if BB is calling a wide range which includes undercards then it's even better because you then have a chance of tripling up :)
 
brackdog

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I think you are allowing the actual results of the hand cloud the fact that pocket 9's don't do well in multi-way pots and from the way you described the BB it was a very real possibility to be in a three way pot with a medium pair.

As I said, that was exactly why I folded. If big stack is on my right and I know he folds, it's an easy decision to call CO. If CO folds to me, it's an easy decision to shove 99 into BB. It was the possibility (probability) of playing three-handed that scared me into laying the hand down.

bd
 
R

roadtopro

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I agree with above. You shouldn't be afraid of crashing out in 10th IMO anyway. The Big Money is 1st, not 10th or even 9th, and you need every chip you can get to help you get there. Easy shove IMO

"Always play to win not to get ITM "
Thats what I read here today.....I was playin Big $33 NLHE on PS and was 173 out of 175....with 171 places paid...still had 3-4 BBs left...AQ in BB, got raised n and had I folded I'd definitely finished ITM which was $53 odd....Just because I'd read this statement,I called and lost to AJ with a jack on turn...I am damn sure I'd have folded that had I not read that statement here today
I don't know whether in future it'll help me or not but today it cost me $53 odd...
 
Kenzie 96

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"Always play to win not to get ITM "
Thats what I read here today.....I was playin Big $33 NLHE on PS and was 173 out of 175....with 171 places paid...still had 3-4 BBs left...AQ in BB, got raised n and had I folded I'd definitely finished ITM which was $53 odd....Just because I'd read this statement,I called and lost to AJ with a jack on turn...I am damn sure I'd have folded that had I not read that statement here today
I don't know whether in future it'll help me or not but today it cost me $53



So as a result of something you read on this site you ended up getting your money in against a hand you had dominated?:eek: Same thing happened to me the other night, I wake up with poc a's, guy to my left opens with a min raise, I reraise, he shoves & because I read, ON ThIS SITE, that poc A's was the best starting hand, I called. He turned over poc K's, hit a K on the flop & I was out of the tourney.:eek: I swear, these folks on this site are clueless.;)

By the way, always & never are words one should always never take literally, when discussing poker stratergy.
 
olliejjc16

olliejjc16

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would personally reshove, you're ahead of his range here most of the time and at worst you'll probably be in a coinflip, with just over 10bb you definitely need a double up here to have any chance of winning the tournament!
 
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