Do you fold QQ in this spot?

Y

YouplaBoum

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24K Guaranteed. 6Handed NL. 12 People left. 2500/5000 Blinds.
UTG has 30000
BTN has 80000
Youplaboum (SB) 60000
The average stack is probably around 120000or so.

I get dealt QQ and UTG goes all in. BTN Goes all in.
Youplaboum?

UTG has been a bit short stacked and went all in numerous time in the past couple hands. So I m not really worried about him. However, BTN has been a bit quieter and I m afraid he's holding KK or AA.

Do you ever consider laying that hand down in this spot since each place now gets paid much more than the previous place with 12 people left?
Like, I know I could possibly triple up and be up there to have a good shot at the first place. Or I can lay it down and just stick around hoping for people to eliminate each other and wait for a better spot to shove it in.

Any thouhts?
 
M

maltz

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Yep folding is a good option here. One of them must have A, and even K. So you are at best 50-60% to win this 3-way all in. Against KK or AA you are just dead. Not worth it in late tournament.
 
J

joeeagles

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UTG is shortstacked and has been going all-in numerous times. All that = very wide range.

BTN you say has been quieter and is calling an all-in from a shortstack. We have to give him credit for some kind of a hand since he's taking it to showdown, so the question is: what is the minimum hand that would call UTG's shove?

I'd think 88+, AQ+, given the circumstances.

So while you could be behind, there are better chances you're WA. The tourney is down to the last 12, and as you say every spot you advance comes with a bigger payday. However your stack isn't exactly huge (60k) as compared to the bilnds (2.5k/5k). When we consider that in MTT's the payouts are heavily tilted towards the top 3 spots, our effort should go towards reaching that. With 60k we hardly are in position to get there.

The answer to your question, therefore, depends on what your goal is for this tourney. If you are just trying to reach the FT and hang on as long as you can hoping that a certain # of players get knocked out before you, then fold. Although it's ok to have such a modest goal, this shouldn't be, IMO, the attitude when you play an MTT and you're down to the last 12. When you make it that far, winning should be in your thoughts, and with a stack of 60k and BB at 5k, at some point you're going to have to take a chance.

With that in mind I'd make this call without a blink. Although there always is a chance BTN has AA or KK, there are many hands you might be dominating because his shove is coming under circumstances that make me think so. All that, + playing to win/reach top 3, + size of your current stack in relation to the blinds, +winning this hand puts you at 150k (which is above avg), to me = call.

If you're playing to win it's actually a no brainer, IMO. You might go the rest of the tourney w/o getting a hand this good and find yourself shoving with something more marginal. Also, as soon as you get a hand good enough to raise PF, if you get called, you almost can't afford to lose it. There is just too much, at this stage, that makes me say calling is what gives you the best chance to make it deeper. If BTN has aces or kings so be it, it doesn't make your call the wrong play.
 
dj11

dj11

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I have to agree with Joe. BTN is calling because he knows UTG is shoving because he (UTG) is shortstacked and in panic mode. So BTN can shove to isolate with a wide range here. If he isolates he can suffer a beat and still be OK, so his call is fair. He raises to get you to fold. But with 5-2 odds here, and a monster hand you just about have to call. I would with any pair down to TT I think.
 
Effexor

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I'm pushing here as well. If the button wins you still move up a spot in the money (since you started with more chips than UTG). If UTG wins, and you beat the button's hand you come out EVEN. If you win, you more than double up. This is as close to freerolling as you can get.

The risk vs reward here is a good bet.
 
bubbasbestbabe

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Sounds like the button is raising to isolate the SS. QQ in this position is a definate call here. You've got money no matter what. The goal is to win. Laying this down at this stage is not good poker. Call and let the cards lay where they will.
 
vanquish

vanquish

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Call and expect to be up against something like UTGs KJ and BTNs AQ and win a huge pot.
 
Y

YouplaBoum

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Thx for all your replies.
I did indeed push thinking along the same lines as joe and effexor. But I start doubting myself thinking that:
a) UTG might have any A or K which could pair a fair amount of time on the flop
b) BTN might have any A or K + big pair AA or KK or any other pair.
So in the end, since we have two people in already, we are probably not a huge favorite. I told myself though, if UTG has an A or K and actually hits, I can probably even up with BTN's money if he has any pair lower than my QQ's. So a call should be good.

Results: UTG = A8o BTN= KK.
UTG spiked an A and won the main pot, and I lost the tournament unimproved with the Final Table at sight...
 
dwbrown7680

dwbrown7680

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I'm going to have to agree with everyone on this one as well. It clearly looks like the BTN is trying to isolate that all in as a way of minimizing his opposition. With Q,Q here (which is my fav hand so there is no way I would fold anyways) you have to call, because it's at points like these where aggression and not being passive is what gets you to the FT and gets you the win. At worst i'm guessing you to be looking at a A,x or K,x race, which, btw is also what the SS is pushing with most likely. So most likely 2 of the Aces are gone leaving them drawing to 1 of the other 2 to beat you. I really just cant ever justify folding 10,10 and above this late into a big tourny.
 
lasvegaspokerchick

lasvegaspokerchick

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I think that it is important when evaluating your hands that you try very hard not to evaluate them based on what the result ends up being. I agree with your analysis (as well as most everyone else's on this post) as well as with your action. You lost and that sucks, but you still made what you (and we) believe was the right play. I personally do not even consider laying that hand down unless we are currently on the bubble, then, maybe I think about it. Otherwise you have to ask yourself...did you come to win or to squeek along?
 
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OzExorcist

OzExorcist

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I'm assuming the bubble burst a while back and we're already in the money - and I agree with pretty much everyone else about getting all the money in.

For every time we call this and end up facing an opponent with AA or KK, there'll be a dozen other times where your facing AK and A-rag or K-rag type hands where you're ahead of your opponents, and maybe they're even interfering with each other's outs.

If we take down the pot we're in a good position to challenge for the overall win, and we've moved up one spot in the money in the process. If we get knocked out, we're still getting paid.
 
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