Difficult Situation in the Red Zone

[soccerfreakjj10]

Here was a very difficult spot for me. I had absolutely no idea what I should have done.

My read on hardtofathom was an extremely BAD player who played too many pots and made too many bad calls.

My M is about 3.5.

full tilt poker Game #4932091517: $1 Million Guarantee Satellite (34089059), Table 66 - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 16:13:33 ET - 2008/01/20
Seat 1: bigrran (885), is sitting out
Seat 2: GBecks (4,235)
Seat 3: donkeyslayer84 (2,540)
Seat 4: hardtofathom (3,515)
Seat 5: leaf27 (2,730)
Seat 6: JOSEYY (3,705)
Seat 7: rks ceo (2,630)
Seat 8: soccerfreakjj10 (1,020)
Seat 9: Prufrockstar (1,515)
soccerfreakjj10 posts the small blind of 100
Prufrockstar posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to soccerfreakjj10 [2s 2d]
bigrran folds
GBecks folds
donkeyslayer84 folds
royalburrito24 (Observer): ily
hardtofathom calls 200
leaf27 folds
JOSEYY folds
rks ceo folds
CubanaD64 (Observer): thank you river
soccerfreakjj10 has 15 seconds left to act
?????????????????

 

[burton_boy]

Push. Hope to steal the other blind. You have very few chips compared to the blinds and need to make a move. With only one caller it seems like a logical spot.

 

[royalburrito24]

I shove here. Our read on hardtofathom was that he was an extremely weak player, correct? Push and get called by a weak hand and race to stay alive. If he calls, he most likely doesn't have a pair, and all you gotta do is flip a coin.

Shove, fist pump after a won race.

 

[switch0723]

agreed. Shove here and except to be flipping which is generally a good positioning to be in, being 50/50 when all in, with only an m of 3. With an m of 3 generally more big stacks will call and reduce your odds, so i like our chances here

 

[OzExorcist]

I actually think I find a fold here. If your read on the limper is that he plays too many pots, then you're probably going to get a call here. And with 22, I wouldn't want callers - the absolute best you can hope for is a coin flip. If villain connects with any part of the flop, they've got you beat.

Also, you're in the small blind so you've got at least another round to find a better position if you fold here.

 

[royalburrito24]

I actually think I find a fold here. If your read on the limper is that he plays too many pots, then you're probably going to get a call here. And with 22, I wouldn't want callers - the absolute best you can hope for is a coin flip. If villain connects with any part of the flop, they've got you beat.

Also, you're in the small blind so you've got at least another round to find a better position if you fold here.

Keep in mind that this is a turbo satellite tournament (I do not know if you know this), so waiting for hands is going to be much harder here. I was watching and the limper's stats indicate his inability to play MTTs well.

I am still pushing here.

 

[OzExorcist]

I did notice it was a satellite - since it wasn't mentioned I assumed we were still a way aways from getting the seat though.

I'm not suggesting waiting for a Group 1 hand, BTW - just that some time in the next round, we should be able to find a spot where we've got first in vigorish and maybe some cards with a little more showdown value or potential for improvement.

The way I look at it, if villain is playing too many pots and making loads of bad calls, we could treat this situation more like he's raised pre-flop: we don't have much in the way of fold equity, and there's almost no such thing as a "bad call" on the villain's part.

 

[royalburrito24]

The way I look at it, if villain is playing too many pots and making loads of bad calls, we could treat this situation more like he's raised pre-flop: we don't have much in the way of fold equity, and there's almost no such thing as a "bad call" on the villain's part.

Sorry, I forgot to include this in my last post: soccerfreak and I never witnessed any bad calls, just lucky situations. He was involved in more than the normal amount of pots, but there is still reason to believe that the limper will fold.

 

[Gobbs]

I think the key is this: How often will the move get both of your opponents to fold, and if one of them calls, how often will they call with a pair?

If you assume that you will get the players to fold 50% of the time and that only 10% of the time, the original limper did so with a pair (or the BB will call with a pair), you are still looking at a negative proposition. By my calculations, you need to get your opponents to fold 55% of the time to make this a positive proposition.

However, at the table, that's a pretty tough distinction to make and you really have to consider if you are going to get any better chances to gamble. That just depends on how tight the table is playing.

 

[soccerfreakjj10]

I did notice it was a satellite - since it wasn't mentioned I assumed we were still a way aways from getting the seat though.

Yeah not even close to a seat yet.

I will wait and see if there are a few more replies and then explain my take on it and then what I did.

 

[c9h13no3]

Hardtofathom is definately calling. The BB may call as well. If you think the BB is weak/tight, then shove this, and coinflip. If you think the BB is loose/retarded, then fold. 22 is fine for 1 opponent, but against 2, its total crap.

But if the BB is any sort of decent player, I shove all in here.