Calling on a draw... again

Bombjack

Bombjack

Legend
5-table donk'n'go, been playing 45 mins or so. No reads because I forgot I'd entered and sat out the first half hour. Do you call here for all your tournament life?

Re: button limp / call, *cough* let's just say I was mixing up my play. :eek: Didn't want to commit a lot of chips with this junk. Then getting over 2:1 with position to see the flop. (Actually Sklansky says in NLHETAP, if you think you're a better player than the blinds, it's a good idea to limp in in late position, and give them the chance to make big post-flop mistakes. Just testing that out...)

***** Hand History for Game 5527626285 *****
NL Texas Hold'em Trny: 30901260 Level: 4 Blinds(100/200) - Saturday, December 23, 14:23:50 ET 2006
Table 5 - Table (899917) Table #3 (real money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 1: Bombjack_x ( $5960 )
Seat 7: XXXCardFox ( $1900 )
Seat 10: hundert ( $5363 )
Seat 6: MisterDabbe ( $12890 )
Seat 5: janka7 ( $4207 )
Seat 3: kalmaff ( $6435 )
Seat 2: jonc47 ( $4420 )
Trny: 30901260 Level: 4
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Bombjack_x [ :6h4: :kc4: ]
janka7 folds.
MisterDabbe folds.
XXXCardFox folds.
hundert folds.
Bombjack_x calls [200]
jonc47 folds.
kalmaff raises [400]
Bombjack_x calls [400]
** Dealing Flop ** [ :9c4:, :7c4:, :8c4: ]
kalmaff is all-In.
Bombjack_x...:confused:
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Limping with K6o preflop?

As a player who is almost as good at poker as he is at drawing stickmen once said: Fold preflop.

As played, you've got 5K + with the blinds only at 100/200 I'm not even considering calling unless this is a turbo. Even then this is a fold for me.
 
Irexes

Irexes

Legend
Ignoring the K6o limp.

Let's count outs. He's minraised preflop from the bb and pushed the flop.

I think we can safely assume he has something decent but vulnerable and is protecting it from the world's scariest flop. Of course he could be a tool and have nothing or he could have flopped the nuts and be insane, but I'd go with an overpair. If he's got AA I'd rule out a club so your club flush draw is good I think.

Your straight draw is also probably good though he could have JJ knocking off one end of it.

So you have 9 clubs 3 non-club fives and 3 non-club tens, giving 15 outs.

Battlefield maths makes it a call on pot odds (you are possibly marginal favourite at around 52%) with the equity in the pot...

..however he's got his chips in first. If we assume you are a 52% favourite here you are busting out 48% of the time. Can you demonstrate the necessary increase in profitability on the 52% of times you win to justify busting out 48% of the time?

Now if you manage to get your chips in first here it could be another story.

But as said, fold preflop (or raise if you must play) and avoid the problem :)

Here's the pokerstove results versus a range of JJ+ turns out it's about 50/50

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
20,790 games 0.050 secs 415,800 games/sec
Board: 7c 8c 9c
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 49.9423 % 49.03% 00.91% { JJ+ }
Hand 2: 50.0577 % 49.15% 00.91% { Kc6d }
 
Bombjack

Bombjack

Legend
Open-ended straight and flush draws are favourite against pretty much anything except a set or a better draw. I was going to push anyway if he bet this flop. A lot easier to call this in a cash game, but in a tourney I suppose I need to show a bit more restraint. As it happened he had AA and I was a 53% favourite to win.
 
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