call this shove?

BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

Legend
Joined
Nov 26, 2007
Total posts
9,218
Blinds have just gone up to 100/200 last hand. I'm in BB and short stacked villain shoves from UTG. Is this a call with A5?

full tilt poker Game #5675295352: $20 + $2 Sit & Go (43195809), Table 1 - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:17:52 ET - 2008/03/17
Seat 1: str8thunter (2,370)
Seat 2: Terjelerje (2,778)
Seat 3: Vaughn42 (985)
Seat 4: jspenge (877)
Seat 6: tidangobber (3,190)
Seat 7: BelgoSuisse (2,330)
Seat 9: POKER GATE (970)
tidangobber posts the small blind of 100
BelgoSuisse posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BelgoSuisse [5h Ac]
POKER GATE raises to 970, and is all in
str8thunter folds
Terjelerje folds
Vaughn42 folds
jspenge folds
tidangobber has 15 seconds left to act
tidangobber is sitting out
tidangobber has timed out
tidangobber folds
 
pantin007

pantin007

member
Joined
Apr 12, 2007
Total posts
6,208
easy fold, altho he is pushing with a short stack u must respect the push, u dont even get odds to call but if u have like 5K in chips u could call but with ur stack and with the odds ur getting and ur hand is by far no good, it is a fold
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

Legend
Joined
Nov 26, 2007
Total posts
9,218
ICM analysis

So let's do some math... :eek:

If I fold, I have 2130 chips left. If I call and win, 3400. If I call and lose 1360.

So in cEV, my break even point is that I need to win at least (2130-1360)/(3400-1360) = 37.7%. That's the odds I get if I restrict his range to any pair or any ace. If his range is any wider than that I can profit.

For $EV, I've included the ICM calculations below (i'm player 6). The break even point is (15.995-10.805)/(23.6-10.805) = 40.5% . That's the odds I get by adding KT+ to A2+ and 22+.
 

Attachments

  • fold.jpg
    fold.jpg
    19.7 KB · Views: 6
  • call and win.jpg
    call and win.jpg
    19 KB · Views: 5
  • call and lose.jpg
    call and lose.jpg
    20.1 KB · Views: 5
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
So by your own calculations it a VERY marginal call. You're in no jeopardy of elimination and can certainly wait for a much beter spot to take this guys chips.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

Legend
Joined
Nov 26, 2007
Total posts
9,218
So by your own calculations it a VERY marginal call. You're in no jeopardy of elimination and can certainly wait for a much beter spot to take this guys chips.

Not so sure. If his range is any two cards, which is not 100% unrealistic for a player with an M of 3 UTG, than A5 is a 57.7% favorite against ATC. That makes calling more than marginally profitable.

cEV = .423 * 1360 + .577 * 3400 = 2537, which is +407 compared to a fold

$EV = .423 * 10.805 + .527 * 23.6 = 18.19% of the prize pool, compared to 16% for a fold. That's + 2.19% of 180$, or +3.942$. If I got that kind of +$EV every hand I play I'd be rich...
 
Last edited:
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
8,819
In a tournament you're not looking for a marginal +EV situation tho. You're looking for the best spot to put your money & survive. A 57% edge, and a hand that is likely dominated isn't a great spot to put yourself in. At least shove A5os so you've got some fold equity to go with your marginal edge over 2 random cards.

Plus, he's UTG. He's not trying to steal blinds or anything fancy. He just thinks he has a good hand to get his $ in with. Fold. Don't risk half your stack just to save 200 chips. Just fold it, shove something on the button, and get those chips right back.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

Legend
Joined
Nov 26, 2007
Total posts
9,218
Well, as you can guess, I did call. Didn't have time to do the maths, but I felt he was just shoving ATC, so I was ahead of his range and I got great pot odds to go with it. Turns out he had J8s, against which I'm 55% favorite.

BelgoSuisse calls 770
POKER GATE shows [8d Jd]
BelgoSuisse shows [5h Ac]
*** FLOP *** [Qc Kd 2s]
*** TURN *** [Qc Kd 2s] [8s]
*** RIVER *** [Qc Kd 2s 8s] [4h]
tidangobber has returned
POKER GATE shows a pair of Eights
BelgoSuisse shows Ace King high
POKER GATE wins the pot (2,040) with a pair of Eights
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2,040 | Rake 0
Board: [Qc Kd 2s 8s 4h]
Seat 1: str8thunter didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: Terjelerje didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: Vaughn42 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: jspenge (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: tidangobber (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 7: BelgoSuisse (big blind) showed [5h Ac] and lost with Ace King high
Seat 9: POKER GATE showed [8d Jd] and won (2,040) with a pair of Eights
 
R

ross1shark

Guest
Joined
Mar 18, 2008
Total posts
11
Over-analyzing!

A 5??? No need to even analyze - In any event, unless you're heads-up final plays, let it go. It's at BEST a marginal hand, and the double-up you could give your enemy might just be the surge he needs to get going again! (One of my recent tourney wins had me down to just 20 measley chips - until people started calling me with hands just like this and got me back in action - I went on to finish 1st place!)
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

Legend
Joined
Nov 26, 2007
Total posts
9,218
I did expect most of you to tell me to fold, but the whole theory of folding to shoves is supposedly based on ICM analysis. Here ICM tells me to call. Should I only believe it when it's telling me to fold ????
 
B

Bentheman87

Guest
Joined
Sep 6, 2007
Total posts
794
I think you made the right call. Just look at it from the opponent's point of view. His m is about 3, the blinds are about to hit him and take a good chunk of his stack, the correct play for him is all in with almost ATC. So saying "altho he is pushing with a short stack u must respect the push" is dumb.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

HELLO INTERNET
Joined
Jul 12, 2005
Total posts
12,422
I like how OP asked the question and he's the only one to post smart analysis in the thread, lol.

If we have villain pegged as someone who vaguely knows what he's doing, he should be shoving with any two cards UTG here before the blinds eat up his fold equity. We're healthy against a range of any two, and we have chips to absorb the blow if we do lose. If ICM says it's a call given a range of ATC for villain, it's probably a call, albeit a very marginal one. It's certainly not an 'easy' anything.
 
C

CfPoker

Rock Star
Joined
Jan 21, 2008
Total posts
332
Tricky one. I think I'd fold it myself.

An UTG shove should get some respect, but as had been said he'll lose his fold equity if he lets the blinds hit so it may well be ATC.

A5 against ATC is ahead, but not by a massive amount. The only reason i'd lean towards the fold is we lose almost half our stack if we lose this hand. We're in the big blind so we'll get to see another orbit of the table where a better situation will hopefully present itself.
 
F

Flappyf1sh

Guest
Joined
Mar 14, 2008
Total posts
12
AHHHHH. please can I say sorry belgo I see you talking through math and ICM in many threads. Sorry for the sharpness.This is an easy fold with your stack size and 8 players left. ICM really comes into play on the bubble or if you have around 7-10 BB then it comes into its own. Why not wait until you SB and hes BB then push him around dont double him up now on a marginal call when you have such a big advantage over him.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

Legend
Joined
Nov 26, 2007
Total posts
9,218
AHHHHH. please can I say sorry belgo I see you talking through math and ICM in many threads. Sorry for the sharpness.This is an easy fold with your stack size and 8 players left. ICM really comes into play on the bubble or if you have around 7-10 BB then it comes into its own. Why not wait until you SB and hes BB then push him around dont double him up now on a marginal call when you have such a big advantage over him.

Blinds are 100/200 and 3 players out of 7 have an M of 3, the rest of us have Ms between 8 and 10. Obviously the table is now in push/fold mode for most hands. If ICM does not apply here, when does it?

BTW, I would never ever call this from any position earlier than BB. But from BB I don't risk being reshoved by a later player with a great hand and I get great pot odds as I only need to pay 770 into a pot already containing 1270 chips.
 
mrsnake3695

mrsnake3695

I'm confused
Joined
Jun 30, 2006
Total posts
1,597
I belive I fold this. I like to look at the possibility of being dominated or dominating myself when deciding to call an all-in like this.

With A-5 we dominate almost nothing even if we expand his range to any 2 cards. We only dominate A-2, A-3, A-4 or 5-X, not very likely. We are dominated by A-k thru A-6 and any pair 55 or higher. We are only a slight favorite against hands with 2 cards between 5 and A. Not a very comfortable position to call off half our chips with, especially since this will put us in a very shaky situation if we lose.

In a cash game you certainly play a 55% edge but in a tourney you need a bigger edge to risk a large percentage of your chips.

Maybe it because I'm prejudice, I hate ace-small.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

Legend
Joined
Nov 26, 2007
Total posts
9,218
I like how OP asked the question and he's the only one to post smart analysis in the thread, lol.

If we have villain pegged as someone who vaguely knows what he's doing, he should be shoving with any two cards UTG here before the blinds eat up his fold equity. We're healthy against a range of any two, and we have chips to absorb the blow if we do lose. If ICM says it's a call given a range of ATC for villain, it's probably a call, albeit a very marginal one. It's certainly not an 'easy' anything.

Thanks. :) I find that posting my thoughts actually does help me formulate them properly.

IMO, finding the proper calling range is a lot harder than finding the proper shoving range. In the levels I play now ($11 or $22), I think most players have a decent understanding of when to shove, but are way too tight when it comes to calling.

The hard part is that I think that if you start off calling too tight, then learning proper ICM calls typically translates into lower ITM% but higher number of 1st place finishes, and that means increased variance. :eek:

Graphic below illustrates this. 254 9-handed SNGs in 2008. ITM is just decent at 39.76%, but 1st places are 19.7% which is great.
 

Attachments

  • finishes.jpg
    finishes.jpg
    16.7 KB · Views: 5
F

Flappyf1sh

Guest
Joined
Mar 14, 2008
Total posts
12
You still have position on this player and a big advantage over him the very next hand even if you pay him off your BB. You will get it back and crack him with much better hands. I also see your point with the M's but im still waiting for a better time to be calling coin flips seat 2 is the one who should be playing the push game at this point in the SnG.
 
dj11

dj11

Legend
Joined
Oct 9, 2006
Total posts
23,189
Awards
9
I fold this for a different reason.

Short stack will remain short stack if I don't call.

Incidentally, if I were of a mind to call here, I would feel much better about it holding ANY connectors!.

A5o is not a hand to be donking off chips with.

It may be that ICM is correct. Unfortunatly, I haven't read a discourse on ICM that makes enough sense. Many have tried, all so far have failed IMHO.

I can show you at a glance how 20=25, and it will defy many how to disprove it. Until ICM is presented somewhere in a way that makes sense, I have to categorize it alongside starting hand charts, as a guide, not a doctrine.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

Legend
Joined
Nov 26, 2007
Total posts
9,218
You still have position on this player and a big advantage over him the very next hand even if you pay him off your BB. You will get it back and crack him with much better hands. I also see your point with the M's but im still waiting for a better time to be calling coin flips seat 2 is the one who should be playing the push game at this point in the SnG.

In $20+2 SNGs, I think the very short stacks mostly know that they need to call with a wide range of hands from BB if they feel they get pushed a bit lightly, because with a very low M, they do get great pot odds. So it's actually a dangerous game for seat 2 to be pushing.
 
dj11

dj11

Legend
Joined
Oct 9, 2006
Total posts
23,189
Awards
9
You still have position on this player and a big advantage over him the very next hand even if you pay him off your BB. You will get it back and crack him with much better hands. I also see your point with the M's but im still waiting for a better time to be calling coin flips seat 2 is the one who should be playing the push game at this point in the SnG.


Position plays NO part in this after the decision to call is made.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

Legend
Joined
Nov 26, 2007
Total posts
9,218
Incidentally, if I were of a mind to call here, I would feel much better about it holding ANY connectors!.

Why? What range do you put him on that makes ANY connectors better than A5?

I think his range is essentially any two cards, minus absolute trash like 32 and minus high pairs which he would try to trap with. So I mostly expect to face 2 unpaired cards between my A and 5, against which I'm 55% to win. How do your connectors beat that unless they are AK, KQ or maybe QJ (don't have pokerstove here, so i'm guesstimating)?
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Only suited QJ+ or unsuited KQ+ are better against our opponents range (I used top 60% in Pokerstove) than A5os. That said A5os is still only 52% to win against his range. Still too marginal for me to call when I factor in the other stacks at the table and the fact that the pusher will be in the BB next hand. So despite ICM saying it's a call I still fold.
 
THe Slob

THe Slob

Rock Star
Joined
Oct 16, 2007
Total posts
149
Belgo, I like your analysis of the hand. And you're right his pushing range is any two cards not including complete trash (especially when the blinds are about to eat him alive); so you would be a 55% favorite against most of his range. Personally, I don't mind sacrificing a slight +EV to wait for a better spot later, but you're certainly correct in calling in this position. I know from earlier posts you like playing a big stack, and don't mind pushing slight edges in order to get that big stack. You made the right call for your style of playing.

I just saw Hilbilly's post that you were 52% against his range according to pokerstove. Still if you don't mind pushing these slight edges go for it. Again, personally, I like to wait for a better spot.
 
Top