BvB right after double up 4 handed--marginal shove?

Emperor IX

Emperor IX

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pokerstars Game #16306326860: Tournament #82552657, $4.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level XV (1500/3000) - 2008/03/28 - 05:09:49 (ET)
Table '82552657 8' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 3: JabbaDaFlop (33928 in chips)
Seat 5: Emperor XIX (47022 in chips)
Seat 8: shane_bmw (169750 in chips)
Seat 9: AA_Debbie_AA (19300 in chips)
JabbaDaFlop: posts the ante 300
Emperor XIX: posts the ante 300
shane_bmw: posts the ante 300
AA_Debbie_AA: posts the ante 300
Emperor XIX: posts small blind 1500
shane_bmw: posts big blind 3000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Emperor XIX [8s As]
bigpoopadump [observer] said, "you needed kq"
AA_Debbie_AA: folds
JabbaDaFlop: folds
bigpoopadump [observer] said, "that never loses"
Randyspears [observer] said, "lol"
Emperor XIX: calls 1500
JabbaDaFlop said, "true'"
shane_bmw: checks
*** FLOP *** [Ks 4d 8h]
Randyspears [observer] said, "poker stars nuts"
Emperor XIX: checks
shane_bmw: bets 9000
?

Is this worth shoving? here's the stove numbers:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.876% 58.00% 00.87% 219359 3297.00 { As8s }
Hand 1: 41.124% 40.25% 00.87% 152227 3297.00 { 22+, AKs, A8s, A4s, KTs-K2s, Q8s, Q4s, J8s, J4s, T8s, T4s, 98s, 94s, 82s+, 74s, 64s, 54s, 42s+, AKo, A8o, A4o, KJo-K2o, Q8o, Q4o, J8o, J4o, T8o, T4o, 98o, 94o, 82o+, 74o, 64o, 54o, 42o+ }


I included every possible hand that is a pair or better, even hands that we can likely discount since he didn't raise preflop. Giving him a pair is likely too much credit so his range could obviously be wider (he's been stealing a lot)
 
B

Bentheman87

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Yup definetly worth a shove, middle pair top kicker is a big hand heads up. You could raise to 27000 here but that will leave you with only 20000 and you'd probably be priced in to call a shove (even if you knew he had a king you'd have 5 outs). I think it is much better to just bet first on the flop though. If he makes a big raise then it's easier to get away from since we haven't comitted a lot of chips. If he just calls he probably has middle pair or bottom pair.
 
Emperor IX

Emperor IX

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Oh god I can't even justify my check :( My weak tightness I guess :(
 
Emperor IX

Emperor IX

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*Open to interpretation by more than one person*
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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What are your reads/stats on villain? How have you been playing?

This should be a raise preflop. As played you really have no idea what villain has - as the big stack here, considering how weak you've played the hand, he could and should be betting his whole range here to pick up the pot.

So raise preflop, bet flop, and take it from there. You're getting in way too deep/complicated a spot for such a simple situation.

Where are you getting your range from? Do you really expect your opponent to call a check-raise AI with 22 or T4o?

Anyways ignoring that range (because it's really inaccurate unless you've got a read that he really will call with that range), a CRAI is fine here, but you're basically turning your hand into a bluff unless you think you can eek value from a smaller 8 which I doubt. Your opponent can be on literally anything here, but what he'll call with is a completely different range.
 
F

Fermion5

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definitely raise preflop. A8s is the likely favorite plus your hand is difficult to play after the flop since your out of position and you're likely to still have ace high.

I think a shove is wrong for several reasons. One, you are too deep stacked. Calling leaves you with more than 10BB. Also, you basically turn your hand into a bluff as was mentioned since the flop has few draws. Flat call gives him a chance to draw out, but at least you don't go broke with middle pair and 15BB. I'd call flop and check/fold turn if he bets out strong again.

I bet out on this flop unless i'm 80%+ positive that my opponent will bet out if i check. In that case, I check/raise.
 
Emperor IX

Emperor IX

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My reasoning for not raising pf is pretty weak, but I'd raised like the 6 hands prior and doubled up directly before this hand, I didn't want to get bullied with a marginal hand in case he came over the top, and I didn't want to swell the pot since he usually calls.

I'm new to pokerstove, so the range above is everything that includes a pair, since he could have atc, Putting his range at ATC makes me an 80% fave. What should I be putting his range at? His bet essentially means he has something, but it's his standard bet so I can't say if it's top pair or bottom pair bottom kicker.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Well the equity of his current range doesn't matter until we get the money in. We could plug 23o into his range and make it look like we're a significant favourite, but he's never calling a CRAI so the equity doesn't matter.

When we're looking at the equity we'll have when we get called...well then run pokerstove with the hands that will call a CRAI :) We can't give you an accurate calling range since you haven't given reads or stats.
 
Emperor IX

Emperor IX

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Well the equity of his current range doesn't matter until we get the money in. We could plug 23o into his range and make it look like we're a significant favourite, but he's never calling a CRAI so the equity doesn't matter.

When we're looking at the equity we'll have when we get called...well then run pokerstove with the hands that will call a CRAI :) We can't give you an accurate calling range since you haven't given reads or stats.

Ah ok. Well I have no real specific reads on him, but I'm sure he has it on me that I bluff a lot. I've been down to 20k and built back up to 50-60k thee times at this point and had been caught a lot throughout the FT. He's had a big stack a good portion of the time so he was free to sit back and watch. He could call my crai with just about any pair. Even removing the fours (as well as hands that likely raise pre) we get

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.171% 48.34% 01.83% 86137 3268.50 { As8s }
Hand 1: 49.829% 47.99% 01.83% 85526 3268.50 { 44, A8s, K8s-K2s, Q8s, J8s, T8s, 98s, 82s+, A8o, KTo-K2o, Q8o, J8o, T8o, 98o, 82o+ }

Wowsers. I do'nt know what I did differently, haha. I swear this came out 59/41 earlier lol
 
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