on the BUBBLE... what would you do?

[dcultra]

Table '76571387 1' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Brewhogger (4156 in chips)
Seat 5: Micio22 (2779 in chips)
Seat 6: dc-ultra (1880 in chips)
Seat 7: spunk4949 (6770 in chips)
Seat 8: andyx0h (11415 in chips)
Brewhogger: posts the ante 50
Micio22: posts the ante 50
dc-ultra: posts the ante 50
spunk4949: posts the ante 50
andyx0h: posts the ante 50
Micio22: posts small blind 400
dc-ultra: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dc-ultra [Ks 8h]
spunk4949: folds
andyx0h: folds
Brewhogger: raises 800 to 1600
Micio22: folds

dc-ultra ???

 

[Kennyseven]

I would push all in here.

 

[Flappyf1sh]

I would push here. Also you have less then 3BB i would have been looking for spots to push well before I got so sort stacked around 5-7BB.

 

[Chiefer]

no doubt shove. you are probably a coin flip at this point. you can't afford to wait for the next hand.

 

[MrDaMan]

Fold, you want the edge, in this scenario your oop and would be pot committed if you called. You have no edge here, the button is chip leader and can afford to speculate and intimidate from position.

You've been card dead up to this point more than likely and are looking for A/x in position without raises in front of you. If it gets desperate enough K/Q or any pair.

In this scenario you wait and hope to catch some better cards on the button.

IMHO

 

[Chiefer]

he'll have less than the big blind if he waits until the button. insta-shove IMO.

 

[MrDaMan]

There is that Chief, if I think the chip leader is just using his chips as intimidation I might shove here hoping my K is the high card, but if hes tight and been catching, I wait.

I don't like being forced into an all-in, I'd rather select the opportunity better, perhaps an earlier hand. or even, one of the next two. Don't know enough about the chip leader in this scenario, it might be good to shove. It can be played either way, I just prefer it to be on my terms if possible.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

umm, almost half our stack is in already and we have no fold equity for the next few hands if we fold here (heck we'd be left with just over 1BB). you can't 'wait for a better spot' because you have no chips to hold on to.

this is a routine shove.

 

[nevadanick]

Gotta push here. Stack may have gone short from a previous hand lost, but it's late already.

It's make or break time.

 

[Roger1960]

Tough position to be in. If you fold you don't have much left. If you call, you can be easily behind.
Good play by brew, he put you in a tough decision.
After thinking about this for a bit. I think I would push. He doesn't have that many chips and you might be the only one he could make this play against.

 

[jaymfc]

with less than 3 bb you had to know , if you had not found a hand by the time your bb came , it would have to be all in with any two cards.

 

[CAPT. ZIGZAG]

Fold

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Fold

why

 

[Irexes]

This should be an instacall

If it's not then rather than making yourself money by hanging on to reach the odd bubble, you are losing it by failing to take advantage of huge edges in shortstack situations.

 

[Bentheman87]

You waited too long to make your move but now you have to shove here even though you have almost no fold equity.

 

[SeanyJ]

Unless you lost a massive pot to get down this low you shouldn't have this few chips, you should have shoved a long time ago. Now you have to shove and hope you get lucky.

 

[CfPoker]

You have to shove here. You're down to 1000 chips and will have to post 400 of them next hand. Just hope you get lucky...

 

[OzExorcist]

Shove and hope for the best - it's not the ideal hand for it, but it's not awful either and as pretty much everyone else has pointed out, you're all out of options. You might be coinflipping, you might even be slightly ahead. Or you might be crushed, but such is poker life. You're not guaranted to get better cards next hand if you fold.

For what it's worth, calling is the most horrible of all options too - there's absolutely no way you're folding ont he flop to keep your last couple of hundred chips. Then you'll be all-in in the small blind and will still be in terrible position if you double or even triple up.

 

[infinate8]

Em call raise and then allin on the flop regardless,he's gonna call the shove pre anyway i'd say.

 

[OzExorcist]

He's gonna call the shove pre anyway i'd say.

Exactly... so what's the reasoning behind waiting for the flop to shove?

 

[beechleaf]

muck it why risk it when your ready too cash

 

[Chiefer]

at some point i'd like to see the results of this hand.

 

[dcultra]

heh...

this is one of my favorites.. and it is a "for real" situation.

here is more information and i will then tell you my answer:

1. brewhugger WAS the shortest stack... 1 UTG round ago.
i was trying to outlast him.. at that point, i was the
second shortest and he was shortest. he dint play a hand for i'd
recall almost 3 complete rounds. he played a strong rep...
know he was UTG.. and he shoved an A3... yeah...
he went for a strong rep.. got called by a big stack (one of the
top 2 right now) runs up against AQ and hits his 3.
POINT: brewhugger is tight, yeah he got lucky, but still
tight.

2. micio22 is the loosest player of the 5 left over agressive, much
more likely to call with any two cards.

3. brewhugger... must have known i was trying to outlast him.
that's why he chose to make the move he did when he did.

4. yes... i was not gettin cards... and all that bull crap about how many
orbits you got left... that's all out the door against a good player...
it's no longer about odds... it's about players.

by brew having raised INTO micio.. know micio is loose, i cannot think
im ahead not with a K8 anyhow... if i had king premium (ten or better,
yeah.. i think i had a shot)
ok... well, i thought, if im 2 live... tha'ts great... i got about 40/60...
but what if im dominated?
he shoved last time.. with A3 not wanting a call... this time...
he IS trying to pot commit me... he knows darn well, i cant just call to see
flop. he's been trying to play the lastlonger game... of course he's counting my chips... he very very likely wants me in this pot right now.

my conclusion: im beat... and HOW BADLY am i beat?

very rarely would i fold that... but cuz of previous play... i folded this hand.
you never know... the very next hand... 2 big stacks go at it and the shorter one gets knocked out.
(something very similar happened to me in a tourney very recently i might add - and i was the chipleader that ate up
number 2 stack and number 3 stack at a final table)

also, i was staked in this game. my first stake received.... and i did not
want to go out dominated. to be honest, that's my worst fear.. to go out dominated.... and i already feel 90+% im beat, just by how much?

I FOLD.
the only true argument to push is in the long term EV of the hand itself - K8.
it is still a goodly bit above average... but... this is not a true calculation...
remember... you aren't playing against any 2 cards... you're playing against
someone who's shown he knows how to be tight and he knows how the game is shaping up.

also... for all you percentage/pot odds thinkers out there... i get automatic
2 to 1 odds on my next call.. from now on... hah.!
dont' mean they'll fold, just means... i got 2 to 1 on my chips just against blinds and antes!

if you've ever played poker... the one situation to avoid is domination.
that gets you nowhere.. even when you win.. .you look like an dumba$$.

the hardest part of poker is not knowing the odds, is not knowing the EV,
is not knowing when to raise... the SINGLE HARDEST PART OF POKER is KNOWING WHEN TO FOLD.
and i believe... i actually kept my personal EV up by making this fold.

Folding is EQUAL in aggression to an allin - because it is an action
which denotes finality.

i've posted this thread in many forums... and each time... it's a ringer~!
thank you to everyone for your replies

 

[momoney2]

When you say, "On the bubble," do you truly mean just 1 player to go to the money? I see 5 players left, and if this is a single table SnG, then you would need 2 players to be knocked out before you cash. So since you are the BB with 800 + 50 ante in the pot, and only 1030 left and another 400 + 50 ante coming out of your stack in the next hand. And your next closest opponent in chips has 2329 left after this hand and does not have to put anything into the next pot, you HAVE to go all-in now.
If you could survive a couple more rounds and you were not the shortest stack, then folding may be an acceptable choice. BUT once you lose basically half your chips in this hand, then are facing losing another 1/2 your chips in the next hand (3/4 of your chips in the BB and SB), you just have to go for it, and hope the poker gods are on your side.
If you wait until the SB, even if you double up, you still only have enough to min raise the blinds on your next all-in. And your next closest opponent still has more chips than you.
ALL-IN and pray!

*I wrote my reply before reading the others' replies. But it looks like I am in sync with most others on this one.

 

[flint]

It is shove, unless you think that you can fold your way to the money. As said this stack was supposed to be in the middle quite a few hands in before this one.