Bubble play - 99 in small blind

[jeffred1111]

I have not stolen ANY blinds in 4 orbits since I have been card dead and facing agressive opponents who did not let me steal. DEANMY4 is in the BB and he likes to see flops, but at the same time, he is constantly pushing me around, even when UTG, and the other big stacks is letting him do it. He has also shown very marginal hands at showdown (he hasn't won more than 25% of the pots when the cards get turned).

I am dealt 99, what do I do ?

pokerstars Game #10908045278: Tournament #55299553, $3.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (100/200) - 2007/07/12 - 21:07:55 (ET)
Table '55299553 1' 10-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 3: MBronze (2040 in chips)
Seat 5: jeffred1111 (1620 in chips)
Seat 6: DEANMY4 (5500 in chips)
Seat 8: leo1959 (5840 in chips)
MBronze: posts the ante 25
jeffred1111: posts the ante 25
DEANMY4: posts the ante 25
leo1959: posts the ante 25
jeffred1111: posts small blind 100
DEANMY4: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to jeffred1111 [9s 9h]
leo1959: folds
MBronze: folds
jeffred1111: ???? (with DEANMY4 still to act)

Do I raise to simulate a steal ? Do I shove and hope he calls, or do I flat call and shove any flop that isn't dangerous ?

 

[rob5775]

You have a great hand in this situation for 4-handed preflop... and your opponent is loose. Honestly, with your chip stack you don't have enough to get cute. I would shove and hope he thinks its a steal and call with a mediocre hand. At this point in a SnG your options get limited...

The only other play I see is if he raises limpers alot... if you limp from the SB he will (hopefully) raise you and then you shove, and if not you still have a decent hand on the flop.

 

[jeffred1111]

He did raise limpers (me especially) a lot, pricing out people out of their preflop drawing hands (T9s, 87s, etc.) and is probably the reason why my chip stack is so low since I lost a hand where I tried to resteal with KQo and he had A10, spiker his ace right on the flop...

But if we end up calling, on what board do we shove ? Villain range is huge here, especially if he only checks to us. Or do we shove any board unless it is somthing like AKJ all clubs ? I'm worried that by seeing the flop, we might overstimate what villain is holding and cannot shove the flop and lose the blinds plus our 100 chips (if we check, he will put us all-in no matter what since he is bordering on maniac).

 

[rob5775]

Good info Jeff^^^

Since it seems that calling will leave us in a worse chip situation since the BB has been a bully and we will likely be unsure where were at... that makes me like a shove even more.

Yup, I'd shove. You're getting to the inflection point anyway, and your argument makes it clear that a shove is correct here.

 

[jeffred1111]

That's what I tought and I shoved, but I still had doubts about the merits of minraising to fake a weak steal and lure the BB into shoving. The other shortstack (then chip leader) had done so 2 times and both he had been punished by a shove by me and then DEANMY4.

Now, I think that shoving gives us good fold equity (and thus a chance to steal what constitutes a good portion of our stack) .We cannot forget that at this point, we're (sadly) trying to squeeze ITM and then go berserk trying to get back at the chip leaders and we just can't get blinded out or invest a portion of our chips that we're likely to lose on the flop.

Result: DEANMY4 didn't call and the other shortstack went out when DEANMY4 sucked out on him (thus giving me 3rd place).