Bubble of $50+5 sng, AJ

[Bentheman87]

Sorry I don't have the hand history but this hand happened not too long ago so I remember it well. It's 4 handed, top 3 get paid, I have roughly 3000, so do two other players, and the player to my immediate right has roughly 4000. Here are my reads, all the players are very tight preflop, limping once in a while but usually raising. The player two seats to my right is about the same as the two others, maybe slightly looser. I 3bet him all in a few hands ago with AJ os and he folded.

In this hand I'm in the Bb and the blinds are 150/300. The button raises to 600, SB folds, I have AJ os, call, raise all in, fold?

 

[custo80]

For me, it depends if I'm trying to cash or going for the win. It's always hard to judge a raise from the button, is it a steal or do they hold something? If I'm going for just a cash, fold. If going for the win, a raise all in.

What did you do?

 

[Jillychemung]

I fold, I don't want to play AJo OOP against a possible monster and I think there will be better spots on the BTN and CO to steal.

 

[Bentheman87]

Jilly, I would never fold here, especially to a min raise. The question I meant is whether to flat call or raise all in. Flat calling would mean going to the flop with about 2400 and a pot of 1350. More reasoning on why you think its a fold please, if your only reason is I might be against a "possible monster" then that's just scared poker because he may have any ace here.

I found in sngs I just focus on trying to cash and the wins usually come with it. First I just try to cash and from there I go for the win. Of course I'd rather get first than 3rd place.

Let me ask this, is it positive EV in the long run to voluntarily take coinflips in situations like these? Say I somehow knew for sure he had pocket 3s and if I pushed he would call 100% of the time, is it correct to take the coinflip or not?

 

[OzExorcist]

Let me ask this, is it positive EV in the long run to voluntarily take coinflips in situations like these? Say I somehow knew for sure he had pocket 3s and if I pushed he would call 100% of the time, is it correct to take the coinflip or not?

Assuming the villain has you covered, and you'll be the bubble boy if the threes hold up?

The threes are a slight favourite... 53-47 or something like that from memory.

In $EV terms, you'll lose your buyin 53% of the time and the other 47% of the time, if you assume you go on to cash, you'll win third place money.

Plug the figures into (Third place payout x 0.47) - (Buyin including entry fee x 0.53) and you've got your answer for those two particular hands.

Dunno the exact payout structure for a $50 SnG, but I'm pretty sure it'll come out marginally positive. Keep in mind though, that's just the figure for those two hands, in this specific situation.

 

[feitr]

I don't think i'd voluntarily take a coin flip, but seeing as the button has been raising plenty i'd have no trouble shoving here for the resteal. You could flat call, but the odds of you winning the hand OOP is quite a bit less than just shoving. You have a huge huge amount of fold equity for a 1050 pot, which is 1/3 your stack.

If he shows up with AK then terrible luck but what can you do. I like shoving around the bubble because it is very hard for them to call and very easy for you to steal/resteal.

@ jilly

Restealing is ALOT more profitable than just stealing tho. In this case you are playing for 1050 instead of 450.

 

[TWiTCHaH]

I'd lay it down just because you have a pretty decent sized chip stack.. You can wait for something better.

 

[vanquish]

Let me ask this, is it positive EV in the long run to voluntarily take coinflips in situations like these? Say I somehow knew for sure he had pocket 3s and if I pushed he would call 100% of the time, is it correct to take the coinflip or not?

it depends on the stacks, villains, and your overall edge

 

[Miggs]

ship it. ur only crushed by a monster hand - at worse ur racing. altho i do play at the $16 BI's....

 

[soccerfreakjj10]

awhhhhhhhh in baby

seriously if you laid this down you are a super nit.

also he needs an absolute monster to call you because of ICM - sounds like the players know what they are doing.

 

[robwhufc]

I'd lay it down just because you have a pretty decent sized chip stack.. You can wait for something better.

4 handed.

Blinds 150/300

All players have roughly same stack (3 or 4 K)

You are dealt AJ.

And you are suggesting wait for a better hand?

I'd probably stick him all in here, Ozexorcist has typed out the possible percentages, but that assumes the opponent calls - he's raised (min raise, but that's still a raise) and has been re-raised and has now got to make the decision as to whether his hand that was strong enough to raise (A rag, 2 picture cards, low pairs etc) is enough for him to put his game on the line. If he's got AA, KK, QQ, AK it's an easy decision, but that's that, so Pretty much what feitr said for me too.

 

[TWiTCHaH]

4 handed.

Blinds 150/300

All players have roughly same stack (3 or 4 K)

You are dealt AJ.

And you are suggesting wait for a better hand?

Just a personal opinion. There is no right or wrong answer here. If I was short stacked at all, I would be all-in with it, with a average stack size I'm not going to get into a huge pot with a decent hand like A/J.

 

[ABorges]

Let me ask this, is it positive EV in the long run to voluntarily take coinflips in situations like these? Say I somehow knew for sure he had pocket 3s and if I pushed he would call 100% of the time, is it correct to take the coinflip or not?

With the stacks you described, I'm pretty sure it is not +EV to take a coinflip in this situation. You can keep pushing on the blinds and putting the pressure on them until the bubble bursts.

 

[OzExorcist]

With the stacks you described, I'm pretty sure it is not +EV to take a coinflip in this situation. You can keep pushing on the blinds and putting the pressure on them until the bubble bursts.

As set out above, it's +$EV, even though it's slightly -chipEV.

That assumes you're definitely coin flipping and villain is definitely calling though (ie: villain's range is 22-TT and he'll never fold to a shove).

If you make villain's calling range 22-AA / AJ+ and allow for the fact that he'll fold some of the time, which is a much more realistic scenario, the figures will change.

We're a bit behind against their calling range now, but we gain some equity back because they're folding some of the time. It's way too early in the morning on this side of the world to be doing this, but I'll give the figures a bash.

I haven't got PokerStove on this computer, but let's give ourselves 40:60 against the villain's calling range, and say they're going to have that range and call us 80% of the time:

40% of 80% is 32%, so 32% of the time we get called and win third-place money
60% of 80% is 48%, so 48% of the time we get called and knocked out
20% of the time villain folds, and we win the 1050 in the pot

​

Add those together, and 52% of the time we either win the pot or cash, and 48% of the time we get knocked out.

If they only call 65% of the time, however...

40% of 65% is 26% of the time we get called and cash
60% of 65% is 39% of the time we get called and knocked out
35% of the time villain folds, and we win the 1050 pot
​

So in that case, 61% of the time we either cash or win the pot, and 39% we get knocked out.

On those figures (anyone who's got the actual equity figures for AJ vs 22-AA / AJ+ feel free to update the above), even if villain calls four times out of five, we're still ahead. And if they fold just a third of the time, we're further ahead.

 

[AZE]

You have 3k blinds are t300, you don't have the option to call and be out of position so I don't want to see anyone say that. You have two moves, Shove... or Fold...

let's see.. btn min-raises 4 handed... This is like such an easy shove unless you think he's only raising there very tight, in that case easy fold.

I would expect to have someoen raising like 33+, A2+, K5s+, K8+, Q8s+, QTo, T9s+.... and I don't think they call your shove without 77+, A9s+, AJo, KQs (maybe).

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Routine shove. We can't fold because it's amazingly weak-tight, we can't call because then we'll be OOP and will miss most flops, leading to us either having to bluff blind or possibly c/f the best hand. Calling just creates a tricky flop decision for us - this is a routine shove and we should be expecting villain to fold at least 60% of the time.

 

[Announced]

Four handed, shoving is really the only move. Dorkus said it pretty well.

 

[Mr Ambiguos]

You need to figure out why he is only min raising and go from there. If your history with this player shows he normally raises 3x then min raises a light should go off. If he is a timid player but recognizes it is time to start stealing then you can pop it all in. If he is a solid player that you put on 2 big cards but aren't sure if you are ahead you can do my favorite play the stop n go. call the 300 and if the flop is low Bet 1/2 pot. If he calls slow down. You will still leave yourself enough chips to be competitive.