My biggest Flaws...

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ph_il

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OMG...moron alert! Wee-ooo! Wee-ooo!
Can a mod move this to Tournament Hand Analysis please? Thank you.

...Not trusting my reads and getting married to hands.

What do you do?

Full Tilt Poker Game #4184528022: $1 + $0.25 Sit & Go (31759459) Table 4 - 120/240 - No Limit Hold'em - 14:01:50 ET - 2007/11/15
Seat 1: robert4hire (2 210)
Seat 3: King Woodie (3 850)
Seat 5: RaadF (3 859)
Seat 6: Moss42 (1 475)
Seat 7: Philthy (3 615)
Seat 8: python831 (6 480)
Seat 9: DYSkid (4 576)
python831 posts the small blind of 120
DYSkid posts the big blind of 240
The button is in seat #7

Holecards:
Dealt to Philthy [
spadeQ.gif
heartQ.gif
]
robert4hire raises to 480
King Woodie has 15 seconds left to act
King Woodie raises to 720
[Havent seen many hands from him. Small Reraise here is iffy. Im thinking it could be an AQ, AK, or maybe smaller PP to my QQ.
Or it could be a monster looking for someone to come over the top. Not sure, to be honest.]

RaadF folds
Moss42 folds
Philthy has 15 seconds left to act
Philthy has requested TIME
Philthy calls 720
[Wasnt sure if I should Push here. I still have Robert to act behind me and King Woodie. If I push, I could be looking at a 3 way action pot.
So, I decide to just call and play the flop.]

python831 folds
DYSkid folds
robert4hire calls 240

Flop :
[
club5.gif
spadeJ.gif
diam3.gif
]
robert4hire checks
King Woodie has 15 seconds left to act
King Woodie bets 240
[Tiny bet threw me off. There are no draws. Does he have AJ? Does he have an over pair to the J? Could he have a set?
Is this a feeler bet? This is warning bell #1]

Philthy has 15 seconds left to act
Philthy raises to 800
[Small bet to see where I was at in the hand. If it was a feeler bet, this probably wouldve gotten king woodie to fold.]
robert4hire folds
King Woodie raises to 1 360
[Another small reraise. Now Im about 75% im beat. I actually think he has a set of Jacks. This is warning bell # 2]
Philthy has 15 seconds left to act
[Im getting a little less than 9:1 to call, but if I do I commit myself.]

 
Last edited:
dj11

dj11

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Clearly a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation.
In this case, even if you had AA, against villains aggression, you have to consider he started with JJ. But with few trusty reads on the guy, I think you have to stay in this one.
 
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ph_il

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But villians aggression isnt really aggressive. Its so timid, like he is begging for a call.
 
OzExorcist

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Would JJ really reraise here? Min-reraise at that... obviously read dependent, but if it were me holding JJ in this spot I'd probably just flat call you and try to milk you for more on the turn.

I think there's still a good enough chance that you're up against AJ here to continue.

For what it's worth, I think maybe you're reading too much into the minraises too - I've noticed it a bit in the $1.25 games I've played lately, there's a lot of players who just press the raise button with everything from monsters to garbage. This player clearly hasn't touched anything other than the bet/raise button all hand, so I don't think they're putting too much thought into their betting amounts.
 
Genso Hikki

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This is a tough call. Were it me, I would probably stay in the hand, mostly because like Oz pointed out, I think most solid players would flat call with JJ here to get more money from you on the turn. But having said that, I can't discount those alarms going off in your head. I honestly don't think I could lay down the queens here though.
 
royalburrito24

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This is a tough call. Were it me, I would probably stay in the hand, mostly because like Oz pointed out, I think most solid players would flat call with JJ here to get more money from you on the turn. But having said that, I can't discount those alarms going off in your head. I honestly don't think I could lay down the queens here though.

what if he is not a solid player? we cannot assume anyone is really good or really bad until we see their play

what is your read on villain?
 
Genso Hikki

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Well, I have no read on the Villian since I wasn't playing at the table. Given what philthy said here though

[Havent seen many hands from him. Small Reraise here is iffy. Im thinking it could be an AQ, AK, or maybe smaller PP to my QQ.
Or it could be a monster looking for someone to come over the top. Not sure, to be honest.]

I think it's a possibility he may have either JJ or a higher pocket pair than queens. However, as I said in my earlier post it's just as likely that he is playing AJ. So, no I probably would not lay down the hand.
 
OzExorcist

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what if he is not a solid player? we cannot assume anyone is really good or really bad until we see their play

I think we can assume from the fact that villain has put absolutely no thought into their bet sizes (or if they have... well, facepalm I guess - but they're effectively playing limit hold 'em in this hand) that this isn't a solid player. If I'm wrong, then it's a very effective disguise.

Yes, this might be JJ. But I think it's a lone jack often enough to continue.
 
Cheetah

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I would have re-raised preflop to get heads up.

On the flop, I would re-raise all-in. Since you have no specific read on the player, we have to go with likely hands and top pair J is the most likely. You can't just call because as you said you would be pot-committed anyway. And folding on this PERFECT for QQ flop is not an option either.
 
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ph_il

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Well here is how it breaks down.

-Im getting good odds to call the reraise, but if I call the reraise, Im committing myself to the pot.
-There is a good chance that King Woodie will fold to a push here. I honestly doubt it, though
-I could actually have the best hand. I wouldnt be surprised to see an AJ here.
-My opponents odd bets have me thinking that he isnt protecting his hand, but is trying to invite calls or raises.
The small bet and reraise on the flop sent up the warning bells and make me think he is holding something v. strong.

I decided to push because a) I couldnt just call and b) I figure my opponent could be making the same play with AJ or JJ.

I wasn't too surprised by what I saw, though.


Philthy
raises to 2 895 and is all in
King Woodie calls 1 535
Philthy shows [
spadeQ.gif
heartQ.gif
]
King Woodie shows [
clubJ.gif
heartJ.gif
]
python831 : all in

Turn:
[
club5.gif
spadeJ.gif
diam3.gif
] [
diamA.gif
]

River:
[
club5.gif
spadeJ.gif
diam3.gif
diamA.gif
] [
spade8.gif
]
Philthy shows a pair of Queens
King Woodie shows three of a kind Jacks
King Woodie wins the pot (8 310) with three of a kind Jacks
Philthy stands up

SUMMARY:
Total pot 8 310 | Rake 0
Board:
[
club5.gif
spadeJ.gif
diam3.gif
diamA.gif
spade8.gif
]
Seat 1: robert4hire folded on the Flop
Seat 3: King Woodie showed [
clubJ.gif
heartJ.gif
] and won (8 310) with three of a kind Jacks
Seat 5: RaadF didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: Moss42 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: Philthy (button) showed [
spadeQ.gif
heartQ.gif
] and lost with a pair of Queens
Seat 8: python831 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 9: DYSkid (big blind) folded before the Flop
 
Cheetah

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philty, I don't think it was a mistake to push. I don't think many players would be able to fold in this situation, especially at these limits.

And even if you re-raised pre-flop, he could have moved all-in, you call and then get outdrawn on the flop.:mad:
 
NineLions

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Yup, I'm with Cheetah.

If you were gambling your whole bankroll on this tourney, maybe you'd have to fold, but too many times this would have turned out to be AJ.
 
Cheetah

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Here are some numbers to confirm our intuition.

I am assuming that villain will make similar play with pocket pairs from 55 to AA and with JT, JQ, JK and JA.

The number of combinations for each hand are shown in the picture below. When we perform the calculations, we are 79% to win, 1% to tie and only lose to 20% of villain's hands.

So the push is correct! :)

P.S. If someone is interested in knowing how I calculated the possible combinations, let me know.
 

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ph_il

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Im interest in knowing. Im sure its something I can figure out, but I'd rather have it explained. Thanks.

Another thing, ignoring the fact that I was mathematically correct in my push. What about my intuition and my reads? Like I mentioned, I was 75% sure he had a set of jacks from the way the hand was played out. Where do I draw the line between trusting my reads and trusting the math?
 
Cheetah

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Im interest in knowing. Im sure its something I can figure out, but I'd rather have it explained. Thanks.
Let's start with pairs. Say, how many different way can villain have a pair of 88?

There are 4 eights and we would like to see how many different combinations of 2 cards are possible. These are known as the binomial coefficients and denoted as C(4,2) for this case. Most scientific calculators have this function. The direct fomula is:

C(n,k) = n!/(k!*(n-k)!) , where n! = 1*2*3*4*...*n

In the case of 2 cards out of 4

C(4,2) = 4!/(2!*2!) = 1*2*3*4/(1*2*1*2) = 24/4 = 6

There is a visual way to count this directly(but works only for 2 objects).

__ 8c 8d 8h 8s
8c xx +1 +1 +1
8d .. xx +1 +1
8h .. .. xx +1
8s .. .. .. xx

In the table above, the rows are the first card, and the columns are the second card. Since there are no suited pairs:eek: , the diagonal is impossible. The combinations below the diagonal are the same as the ones above the diagonal because the order of the cards doesn't matter. So we should not count them. That is the same to say that whether villain was first dealt 8s and then 8h is the same hand if he were dealt 8h first and 8s second.

So if you count the off-diagonal possibilities, you see that there are 6 possible ways to combine 2 objects.

Now lets do the same with Jacks using your hand example. Js is already on the board so there are 3 Jacks left in the deck. Therefore, the number of possible combinations is:

C(3,2) = 1*2*3/(1*2)*1 = 6/2 = 3

Visually, this can be seen from the following table:

__ Jc Jd Jh Js
Jc xx +1 +1 +1
Jd .. xx +1 +1
Jh .. .. xx +1
Js .. .. .. xx

The blue entries indicate that Js is not available. You can see that there are only 3 combinations left.



For non-paired cards, you simply multiply the number of cards.

For example, for AK, we have 4 aces and 4 kings, so the number of combinations is:

Combinations(AK) = 4*4 = 16

Visually this can be represented as follows:

__ Kc Kd Kh Ks
Ac +1 +1 +1 +1
Ad +1 +1 +1 +1
Ah +1 +1 +1 +1
As +1 +1 +1 +1

The diagonal entries are suited cards(4 possible combinations), and the off-diagonal are 12 unsuited combinations.

If one of the cards is on board, like Js, and we would like to know the possible combinations for villain to have AJ, we have

Combinations(AJ) = (# aces in deck)*(# jacks in deck) = 4 * 3 = 12

Or visially:

__ Jc Jd Jh Js
Ac +1 +1 +1 +1
Ad +1 +1 +1 +1
Ah +1 +1 +1 +1
As +1 +1 +1 +1

The last column is not available, so we are left with 12 possible AJ hands.



Another thing, ignoring the fact that I was mathematically correct in my push. What about my intuition and my reads? Like I mentioned, I was 75% sure he had a set of jacks from the way the hand was played out. Where do I draw the line between trusting my reads and trusting the math?

This is a very difficult question because it is difficult to quantify the correctness of your reads. If you fold, you don't know whether you folded the best hand or not(unless they show).

Online, the reads are based on betting patterns. If you haven't played with a player regularly, then I think that reads based on general betting patterns are unreliable. Some people consistently underbet or min bet. Others consistenly overbet. If I don't know the player, I can't tell what it means.

One thing you could do is keep a log of the outcomes when you get a strong feeling what they have. You should accumulate at least 20 entries before you can use the data. You could then see the % of times you are correct. If it is much bigger than 50%, then you could weigh your reads more in your decision making.
 
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ph_il

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f
Let's start with pairs. Say, how many different way can villain have a pair of 88?

There are 4 eights and we would like to see how many different combinations of 2 cards are possible. These are known as the binomial coefficients and denoted as C(4,2) for this case. Most scientific calculators have this function. The direct fomula is:

:: Head Explodes ::

LOL. Thanks for explaining, though. I appreciate it.

Cheetah said:
This is a very difficult question because it is difficult to quantify the correctness of your reads. If you fold, you don't know whether you folded the best hand or not(unless they show).

Online, the reads are based on betting patterns. If you haven't played with a player regularly, then I think that reads based on general betting patterns are unreliable. Some people consistently underbet or min bet. Others consistenly overbet. If I don't know the player, I can't tell what it means.

One thing you could do is keep a log of the outcomes when you get a strong feeling what they have. You should accumulate at least 20 entries before you can use the data. You could then see the % of times you are correct. If it is much bigger than 50%, then you could weigh your reads more in your decision making.

I understand that online the reads are based on betting patterns. I do try and watch my opponents betting patterns. Its the oddball bets that throw me off for some reason. A player min betting 50 into a 2000 pot for example will send off signals. Or a severe short stack, with less than 3 BB min raises UTG. Plays like these that dont make a lot of sense. I always ask, what do they want the other players to do. And from what I've seen, majority of the time they want a call or raise so they can push with monsters. At the same time, my intuition doesnt always kick in when it happens. There have been many times where my intuition was on the dot, but it was a mix of both intuation, how my opponent had been playing, and my evaluation of hand.

I do like you're idea of keeping a log when I get these intutions, though. One of my big problems is that sometimes I know I should trust my read and fold, but curiousity and the "what if they're bluffing and I have the better hand" vibes kick in. I have to say...im a real curious player. I want to know why they're betting and playing so strangely. So, hopefully keeping a log will help me.
 
Chevren

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Its the oddball bets that throw me off for some reason. A player min betting 50 into a 2000 pot for example will send off signals. Or a severe short stack, with less than 3 BB min raises UTG.

I agree with this for the most part besides the 50 into a 2000 pot I often find is a "bluff" atempt from someone that doesn't want to commit to the bluff, but say there is an early raise 4xbb and I raise that to 16-20xbb and there is a min reraise behind me I often find that to be KK or AA perticularly at micro to low limits.
 
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