Bad Luck? Bad Play?

[CDNMAN 42]

well I thought I did it right, flopped a set turned a full boat and then....
pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - 10/20 - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

idhemmy (UTG): 3,390 (170 bb)
19910701 (UTG+1): 2,196 (110 bb)
cdnman42 (MP): 2,980 (149 bb)
Donpoker175 (MP+1): 2,990 (150 bb)
Branimir84 (LP): 2,416 (121 bb)
damther1ver68 (CO): 2,816 (141 bb)
alaercio (BU): 3,397 (170 bb)
bgmDK9 (SB): 2,970 (149 bb)
millya5 (BB): 3,845 (192 bb)

Pre-Flop: (30) Hero (cdnman42) is MP with 3♣ 3♦
idhemmy (UTG) calls 20, 1 fold, cdnman42 (MP) raises to 70, 2 players fold, damther1ver68 (CO) calls 70, 2 players fold, millya5 (BB) calls 50, idhemmy (UTG) 3-bets to 280, cdnman42 (MP) calls 210, damther1ver68 (CO) calls 210, 1 fold

Flop: (920) 6♣ J♥ 3♠ (3 players)
idhemmy (UTG) bets 460, cdnman42 (MP) calls 460, damther1ver68 (CO) folds

Turn: (1,840) 6♥ (2 players)
idhemmy (UTG) bets 1,060, cdnman42 (MP) raises to 2,120, idhemmy (UTG) raises to 2,650 (all-in), cdnman42 (MP) calls 120 (all-in)

River: (6,320) K♣ (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: 6,320

Showdown:
idhemmy (UTG) shows K♠ K♥ (a full house, Kings full of Sixes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 81%, Flop: 9%, Turn: 9%, River: 100%)

cdnman42 (MP) shows 3♣ 3♦ (a full house, Threes full of Sixes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 19%, Flop: 91%, Turn: 91%, River: 0%)

idhemmy (UTG) wins 6,320

 

[MK_]

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
You can limp behind or isolate, like you did. But if you isolate and face a 3-bet this big, you need to fold a small pair. You are not getting enough implied odds to setmine, and 33 dont have enough showdown value unimproved. It also factor in to the decision, that pocket pairs make up a higher percentage of a 3-betting range than a normal open raising range. So getting oversetted will happen more often in 3-bet pots.

Flop
I like just calling on this dry texture. If he has an overpair, you have him, exactly where you want, and hopefully you can get his entire stack. You also have a guy behind you, who you would ideally like to continue with whatever, he has, that is drawing almost dead. Like maybe AJ or KJ or something like that.

Turn
You can go either way here and just call again, or you can get it in. It wont make much difference, because he is not folding an overpair either way, when he already put in more than half his chips. He is likely not bluffing the river either though, so overall I do have a slight preference of getting it in now, so that there is no risk of a bad river card slowing him down. Like he has KK or QQ, and the river is A of hearts, and he pursuade himself to check-fold.

Results
Just a bad beat, but you made a mistake preflop.

 

[kon44]

well I thought I did it right, flopped a set turned a full boat and then....
PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - 10/20 - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

idhemmy (UTG): 3,390 (170 bb)
19910701 (UTG+1): 2,196 (110 bb)
cdnman42 (MP): 2,980 (149 bb)
Donpoker175 (MP+1): 2,990 (150 bb)
Branimir84 (LP): 2,416 (121 bb)
damther1ver68 (CO): 2,816 (141 bb)
alaercio (BU): 3,397 (170 bb)
bgmDK9 (SB): 2,970 (149 bb)
millya5 (BB): 3,845 (192 bb)

Pre-Flop: (30) Hero (cdnman42) is MP with 3♣ 3♦
idhemmy (UTG) calls 20, 1 fold, cdnman42 (MP) raises to 70, 2 players fold, damther1ver68 (CO) calls 70, 2 players fold, millya5 (BB) calls 50, idhemmy (UTG) 3-bets to 280, cdnman42 (MP) calls 210, damther1ver68 (CO) calls 210, 1 fold

Flop: (920) 6♣ J♥ 3♠ (3 players)
idhemmy (UTG) bets 460, cdnman42 (MP) calls 460, damther1ver68 (CO) folds

Turn: (1,840) 6♥ (2 players)
idhemmy (UTG) bets 1,060, cdnman42 (MP) raises to 2,120, idhemmy (UTG) raises to 2,650 (all-in), cdnman42 (MP) calls 120 (all-in)

River: (6,320) K♣ (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: 6,320

Showdown:
idhemmy (UTG) shows K♠ K♥ (a full house, Kings full of Sixes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 81%, Flop: 9%, Turn: 9%, River: 100%)

cdnman42 (MP) shows 3♣ 3♦ (a full house, Threes full of Sixes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 19%, Flop: 91%, Turn: 91%, River: 0%)

idhemmy (UTG) wins 6,320

Brutal that, I’ve had so many similar situations this last week. Reel em in, get your in good and donk or donk, donk and they are rescued from what was statistically their demise.... Unlucky man 🤕

 

[millya5]

I just stopped paying attention to it, I think it's just not my day there is a black streak
We all have ups and downs

 

[kon44]

I just stopped paying attention to it, I think it's just not my day there is a black streak
We all have ups and downs

For sure, I got lucky against you last night I think... The 4 card flush against your pre made pair. Rivers need filling with soil to stop the sinking lol

 

[eetenor]

well I thought I did it right, flopped a set turned a full boat and then....
PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - 10/20 - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

idhemmy (UTG): 3,390 (170 bb)
19910701 (UTG+1): 2,196 (110 bb)
cdnman42 (MP): 2,980 (149 bb)
Donpoker175 (MP+1): 2,990 (150 bb)
Branimir84 (LP): 2,416 (121 bb)
damther1ver68 (CO): 2,816 (141 bb)
alaercio (BU): 3,397 (170 bb)
bgmDK9 (SB): 2,970 (149 bb)
millya5 (BB): 3,845 (192 bb)

Pre-Flop: (30) Hero (cdnman42) is MP with 3♣ 3♦
idhemmy (UTG) calls 20, 1 fold, cdnman42 (MP) raises to 70, 2 players fold, damther1ver68 (CO) calls 70, 2 players fold, millya5 (BB) calls 50, idhemmy (UTG) 3-bets to 280, cdnman42 (MP) calls 210, damther1ver68 (CO) calls 210, 1 fold

Flop: (920) 6♣ J♥ 3♠ (3 players)
idhemmy (UTG) bets 460, cdnman42 (MP) calls 460, damther1ver68 (CO) folds

Turn: (1,840) 6♥ (2 players)
idhemmy (UTG) bets 1,060, cdnman42 (MP) raises to 2,120, idhemmy (UTG) raises to 2,650 (all-in), cdnman42 (MP) calls 120 (all-in)

River: (6,320) K♣ (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: 6,320

Showdown:
idhemmy (UTG) shows K♠ K♥ (a full house, Kings full of Sixes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 81%, Flop: 9%, Turn: 9%, River: 100%)

cdnman42 (MP) shows 3♣ 3♦ (a full house, Threes full of Sixes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 19%, Flop: 91%, Turn: 91%, River: 0%)

idhemmy (UTG) wins 6,320

So have not looked past preflop yet- 33 is not a raise in this spot at these stack depths it is 100% set mine due to OOP vs very deep stacks therefore equity realization is negative unless we hit our 2 outer- As well we are not getting folds from 44 55 66 IP for this sizing so we are not protecting vs set over set on low boards.

After raise we get exactly as expected CO and BB continue but now we get worse case scenario UTG 3 bets - depending on what rule of thumb we have for set mining we need 15x or 20x we no longer have the correct odds to call- UTG raise is 10.5bb more we need 157.5 or 210 bb in our stack to call for the math to be right.

Flop why just flat? IP this deep with a third player for potential value we want to play for stacks we need to make this pot bigger on flop if the V has KK QQ AA there are action killers on the turn.

As played turn you play is fine vs very weak players but vs a better player they are just not stacking off on turn when your bet screams nuts like that.
Another reason to raise flop instead. We can raise a wider range on flop on a less scary board so we can get max value from better players not just the LADS who over play AA KK

So preflop you had 19% to win so this is not really bad luck when we think about that factor- yes we will hit our set but this happens where we still lose - that is why many pros want 20x to set mine at this stack depth especially when the UTG makes an action that screams AA KK preflop

Why more at this stack depth because we are negating our skill advantage which is highest at these stack depths.

 

[CDNMAN 42]

Preflop
You can limp behind or isolate, like you did. But if you isolate and face a 3-bet this big, you need to fold a small pair. You are not getting enough implied odds to setmine, and 33 dont have enough showdown value unimproved. It also factor in to the decision, that pocket pairs make up a higher percentage of a 3-betting range than a normal open raising range. So getting oversetted will happen more often in 3-bet pots.

Flop
I like just calling on this dry texture. If he has an overpair, you have him, exactly where you want, and hopefully you can get his entire stack. You also have a guy behind you, who you would ideally like to continue with whatever, he has, that is drawing almost dead. Like maybe AJ or KJ or something like that.

Turn
You can go either way here and just call again, or you can get it in. It wont make much difference, because he is not folding an overpair either way, when he already put in more than half his chips. He is likely not bluffing the river either though, so overall I do have a slight preference of getting it in now, so that there is no risk of a bad river card slowing him down. Like he has KK or QQ, and the river is A of hearts, and he pursuade himself to check-fold.

Results
Just a bad beat, but you made a mistake preflop.

Yes in retrospect I should've folded on his large overbite pre flop. Live and learn