bad fold (?), a CC ME hand

[aliengenius]

pokerstars GAME #10255648090: TOURNAMENT #48798006, $30+$3 HOLD'EM NO LIMIT - LEVEL XI (500/1000) - 2007/06/03 - 19:00:59 (ET)
Table '48798006 2' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 4: L.Schumner (40906 in chips)
Seat 6: NotoriousDQ (28581 in chips)
Seat 8: AnnoDomino (20513 in chips)
L.Schumner: posts the ante 75
NotoriousDQ: posts the ante 75
AnnoDomino: posts the ante 75
AnnoDomino: posts small blind 500
L.Schumner: posts big blind 1000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to L.Schumner [] ---that's me!
NotoriousDQ: raises 2500 to 3500 --button raise
AnnoDomino: folds
L.Schumner: calls 2500 --call: pot =$7,725
*** FLOP *** []
L.Schumner: bets 5000 --top pair and the draw
NotoriousDQ: raises 10000 to 15000 --a legit raise of a legit bet; he has $10k behind/left after his raise.
L.Schumner said, "wow"
AnnoDomino said, "what the math say?"
L.Schumner: folds --bad fold?
NotoriousDQ collected 17725 from pot
L.Schumner said, "no"
NotoriousDQ: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 17725 | Rake 0
Board [6c 7d 9d]
Seat 4: L.Schumner (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 6: NotoriousDQ (button) collected (17725)
Seat 8: AnnoDomino (small blind) folded before Flop


I think he could have had something like AQd here, or a pair that has 99 beat.

That makes it a 50/50 situation, both if drawing and if ahead. I opted to fold here because I wanted to avoid a coinflip as I thought I was the better player and the blinds were still low enough for this to matter (I had 32K left, and the pot put him at 37K).

I'm thinking perhaps I should have gamboooled.

 

[calibanboy]

Your 45% to win against an overpair. Most likely.

If your do not fold then your betting another circa 12k to win the 28K in the pot ( rounded numbers based on fact that you will end up with him all in). This means you have the odds to call.

he could of course have trips - eg 77 - in which case you have 28% of winning. You still have virtual pot odds 12K into 28k = circa 30%

I would have called personally. You would also have enough (20k) to stay fighting afterwards if you lose.

 

[aliengenius]

It's closer to 50/50 vs say KhKs, but your point stands.

I'm not calling here. I shove if I don't fold. That would leave me with only $12k if I lose the hand.

The decision was a "tournament" one rather than and odds one.

I know if it's 50/50 and I only have to call another x amount, that I am getting odds to do so since there is always going to be money in the pot already. Easy cash game decision.

Like I said though, I was still in the mind set of wanting to avoid marginal situations.

Any comments on if the tournament situation warrants the gamble yet at this point? I just didn't feel like I needed to take the risk yet. But I am second guessing the decision now...

 

[tosborn]

It's closer to 50/50 vs say KhKs, but your point stands.

I'm not calling here. I shove if I don't fold. That would leave me with only $12k if I lose the hand.

The decision was a "tournament" one rather than and odds one.

I agree, the only option is to shove. Also it is safe to assume that you will get a call.

I think you are up against either the PP, or a bigger flush draw. I don't know that top pair is good enough here. If you really feel like you were the better player, I agree fold this hand.

However, I also agree that I might have gambled. I can't give any advice on this hand. I probably would have just went with my gut feeling.

 

[calibanboy]

I understand that marginal choice here - but your betting 30% of the pot to get a 50/50 against and overpair 30/70 against trips and are dominating big time agianst bluff overcards.

if you think you can play longer and get a more dominating play because he is really bad - then thats fine. You know the score and you are in the game.

Against a better or equal player I call as I think its perfectly acceptable

Other hands he might have are straight and or flush draws. You have odds to call those too.( assuming all-in is formality )



EDIT: Sorry - realise that you are up aginst the guy with 28k. Apologies - you are 100% Correct. OK this moves it to marginal. I agree with Tosborn and you - gut feeling. You still have odds to call though - but I agree Tny life comes into it big time.

 

[tosborn]

at the start of the hand you have 40k and he has 20k. So you have a 20k left at the end of you both end up all-in?

40K and 28K to start. He would have 12K left.

 

[skoldpadda]

I like an open shove on the flop there.

 

[mischman]

I would shove, i rather go broke here gambling than fold and have to wonder what could be. Its just my thoughts, its so close to fold or shove, its really a personal choice.

 

[aliengenius]

I agree, the only option is to shove. Also it is safe to assume that you will get a call.

I think you are up against either the PP, or a bigger flush draw. I don't know that top pair is good enough here. If you really feel like you were the better player, I agree fold this hand.

However, I also agree that I might have gambled. I can't give any advice on this hand. I probably would have just went with my gut feeling.

Right about the shove, you are only 50/50 if you see BOTH cards.

Yes, my analysis is overpair or nut flush draw with two overs. Either case I am 50/50 approx. [chance of set is slightly higher than chance of "nothing", but neither one changes the % on the range enough to matter].

The question/decision has to take into account that this is a tournament. Meaning you have to look at relative stack sizes and the relation of those sizes to the blinds, as well as other factors.

Such and interesting hand.

** mods, can we add a poll:

1. Shove
2. Fold
3. bastard!

 

[AnnoDomino]

i remember that hand

my opinion at the time was that: DQ didn't think you had it and just decided to come over the top

but that is probably way too simplistic, i'd like to know what he did have

 

[joeeagles]

if you think you can play longer and get a more dominating play because he is really bad - then thats fine. You know the score and you are in the game.

This is what it comes down to. Its about which strategy you want to pursue and which makes you feel more comfortable. You can keep you're chip lead by folding or take a huge lead and almost secure 1st place if you shove get called and win the hand, with the risk of losing it and being crippled the rest of the way. I don't think there is a wrong or right way to play this, whichever decision you make is acceptable. Its only about doing what you feel gives you the best chance of winning it.

 

[skoldpadda]

The reason I like the open shove is because you are betting it as you did and have great draws. Put the pressure on the other player before he can do it to you in a situation like this where you likely have 50% equity or more.

 

[aliengenius]

i remember that hand

my opinion at the time was that: DQ didn't think you had it and just decided to come over the top

but that is probably way too simplistic, i'd like to know what he did have

Nah, I think he had it. He raised preflop, then raised when I led into him. It's possible he had nothing, but all his actions indicated strength, even with the opportunity back off.

Also, for what it's worth, he is comfortable enough to make a comment ("what the math say?") in response to my "wow".

 

[dj11]

From your comments embedded in the HH, along with the hand history, I come to this conclusion. The only assumption is that the hand was folded to the button.

Villain, otb, chooses here to steal, and as I have read many many times here and elsewhere, chooses to steal with anything he deems playable. For this example I will choose T8o. Having successfully stolen with these cards on at least a zillion occasions, I find them fine in that position.

The guy flops a str8. You have a str8 draw, he may even have the str8 with the flush draw.

As sweet as your situation might have been, TP/draw, I applaud your decision to fold from a survival POV. Recovery form major organ removal (stack removal) is a btch. It looks like you were maybe at the beginning of that phase of tourney's where folks start to get a little panicky if they are below avg. As this villain had started a steal/bluff and was willing to put you to the test, along with your (IMHO) correct decision to be non-confrontational, and then was probably willing to risk his tourney life on this hand, I think you did the right thing at that point.

 

[aliengenius]

From your comments embedded in the HH, along with the hand history, I come to this conclusion. The only assumption is that the hand was folded to the button.

It's three handed, so the button is first to act.

Villain, otb, chooses here to steal, and as I have read many many times here and elsewhere, chooses to steal with anything he deems playable. For this example I will choose T8o. Having successfully stolen with these cards on at least a zillion occasions, I find them fine in that position.

The guy flops a str8. You have a str8 draw, he may even have the str8 with the flush draw.

As sweet as your situation might have been, TP/draw, I applaud your decision to fold from a survival POV. Recovery form major organ removal (stack removal) is a btch. It looks like you were maybe at the beginning of that phase of tourney's where folks start to get a little panicky if they are below avg. As this villain had started a steal/bluff and was willing to put you to the test, along with your (IMHO) correct decision to be non-confrontational, and then was probably willing to risk his tourney life on this hand, I think you did the right thing at that point.

It's a big fold, and a "mathematically" incorrect one. That's what makes it such an interesting situation...

 

[mrsnake3695]

It's very very hard to win a tourney if you don't win some marginal and 50/50 races. I think I shove this with 13 outs if he has an over pair. I think AK or AQ could make this same play, I've seen it many times in $30 MTTs. He could also have A-8 or A-10 or even A-7 or A-6 (pray its not A-9). 88 is also possible.

So if behind you have 13 outs with a good chance you are ahead. Unless you have a very good read that you are pretty sure villan is way ahead make him put in the rest of his chips. No matter what he has you still have a decent amount of outs even against the worse case.

Of course I'm a believer in gambling a little in MTTs when you think you are either 50/50 or way ahead. It's about accumulating chips in order to win. Sometimes you have to push marginal situation even some when it's possible you are behind. Also if you are routinly fold these situations you will face more and more of these decisions since alert players will play back at you more knowing you will fold to a reraise.

Lets say you are in this exact situation 10 times. One time you win and as a result take the chip lead and go on to win $2500 for 1st place. The other 9 times you lose and finish out of the money. Would it be worth the risk then? Would you call then? Now of course its not sure your would win the tourney but then again you wouldn't lose 9 out of 10 of these either. I would rather win one and finish out of the money 9 times than just make the money most of the time.

I would argue that it is near impossible to win a large field MTT without ever taking some chances and winning some races. I can't see it being possible to win if you fold everytime you are not sure you are a big favorite.

 

[AnnoDomino]

Nah, I think he had it. He raised preflop, then raised when I led into him. It's possible he had nothing, but all his actions indicated strength, even with the opportunity back off.

Also, for what it's worth, he is comfortable enough to make a comment ("what the math say?") in response to my "wow".

certainly interesting:

you were bossing the table, i saw it as DQ making a stand, obv. no way of knowing that for sure, just my guess, as most things in poker are for me, but i guess thats why we love it

careful who said what, the most comfortable person in that pot was the was the one not involved ;-)

 

[aliengenius]

It's very very hard to win a tourney if you don't win some marginal and 50/50 races. I think I shove this with 13 outs if he has an over pair. I think AK or AQ could make this same play, I've seen it many times in $30 MTTs. He could also have A-8 or A-10 or even A-7 or A-6 (pray its not A-9). 88 is also possible.

So if behind you have 13 outs with a good chance you are ahead. Unless you have a very good read that you are pretty sure villan is way ahead make him put in the rest of his chips. No matter what he has you still have a decent amount of outs even against the worse case.

Of course I'm a believer in gambling a little in MTTs when you think you are either 50/50 or way ahead. It's about accumulating chips in order to win. Sometimes you have to push marginal situation even some when it's possible you are behind. Also if you are routinly fold these situations you will face more and more of these decisions since alert players will play back at you more knowing you will fold to a reraise.

Lets say you are in this exact situation 10 times. One time you win and as a result take the chip lead and go on to win $2500 for 1st place. The other 9 times you lose and finish out of the money. Would it be worth the risk then? Would you call then? Now of course its not sure your would win the tourney but then again you wouldn't lose 9 out of 10 of these either. I would rather win one and finish out of the money 9 times than just make the money most of the time.

I would argue that it is near impossible to win a large field MTT without ever taking some chances and winning some races. I can't see it being possible to win if you fold everytime you are not sure you are a big favorite.

Please don't think that I am a super weak tight player who folds all marginal situations where I am not a huge favorite, and that people routinely make plays at me because of it! As anyone who played with me in the tournament will tell you, it is quite the opposite actually.

We are three handed, "deep" in the money. First is worth about $250, third around $100. Second is approx. $150.

We not in the middle stages of the tournament, or on the bubble, as in your above example. It really isn't about "accumulating chips" anymore here. Trust me, I'm not one to get blinded out. I had a super-stack for a lot of the final table play, obtained from playing aggressively in the middle and the two bubble stages (FT and $).

You are of course right about needing to win races to win tournaments. But when people say this, they are not usually referring to putting yourself in these situations on purpose. Sometimes you end up in them, and you need to win to survive ("You need to get lucky to win"). I am a firm believer in avoiding said coin flip situations when possible, especially given any skill edge. I would argue the you shouldn't be going out of your way to play these situations, and, in fact, putting yourself in a position where you need to win extra 50/50 races is NOT a good tournament strategy. It's hard enough to win the ones you end up via other circumstances.

Here are the options:
1. Fold: $37k to our $32K to 20K.
2. Call and win: $69K to $20K HU with an increase of 50% in prize money.
3. Call and lose: $57k to our $12k to 20k. Now in shove mode w 12x bb three handed. I have to consider this a lost position, or at least one totally contingent on luck to win.

So that's the interesting aspect of the hand: is the mathematically incorrect fold worth real money in terms of ICM and/or non-quantitative win percentages due to edge?

Anyway, it is a hand that tortured me a bit, that's why I posted!

**how about that poll?

** mods, can we add a poll:

1. Shove
2. Fold
3. bastard!

 

[mrsnake3695]

Sorry I didn't pay enough attention to the first post and didn't realize it was the last 3 in the tourney which does make a huge difference.

In answewr to the comments about putting yourself in extra coin flip situations, etc. I agree you don't want to continuously put yourself in these situations but you rarely have a situation where you know it's going to be 50/50. How I try to calculate it is this way. X percentage you are way ahead, X percentage it's a coin flip and X percentage way behind. If both the 50/50 and way ahead are higher than way behind then I call. let's say you feel it's 50% a coinflip, 30% way ahead, 20% way behind, then I call the all in. But if the way behind is more than either the way ahead or the coin flip then I fold. In the scenerio you gave I think the chances of being way behind are less that either a coin flip or way ahead, so in general terms I think it's a call. Of course this is read and situational dependent. If you assesment is villan is way ahead more often then you are way ahead of him then it's a clear fold.

So, I'm not looking for simply coin flip situation but situations I feel I am way ahead more often than way behind with 50/50 being the most likley situation. I also want to make sure in those situations where I end up way behind that I still have outs. So even in this situation if villan has say a set of 7's we still have 10 outs or if he has A-9 we have 11 outs. So overall in a earlier time in the tourney I make this call.

 

[robwhufc]

It would have been gone 1AM Monday morning for your 2 opponents so I would have been calling pretty much any move as i'd imagine they both wanted to go to bed. There's plenty of poker to play yet with the blinds that low, but top pair and 10 possibly 13 outs if you're behind? I'd have stuck him all in, seen him flip Ace High, and chuckled as he catches his ace on the river.

 

[NotoriousDeano]

Cant remember what i had here. Im thinking around QQ/KK or something but i can't truely remember. But now that i know you had Pocket 8s there then im sure i had you beat on the flop.

I'm pretty sure i had atleast QQ/KK here.

(Sorry for late post. Only just saw this topic lol and you was all wondering what i had anyway)

 

[aliengenius]

Cant remember what i had here. Im thinking around QQ/KK or something but i can't truely remember. But now that i know you had Pocket 8s there then im sure i had you beat on the flop.

I'm pretty sure i had atleast QQ/KK here.

(Sorry for late post. Only just saw this topic lol and you was all wondering what i had anyway)

I really did put you on a big pair, although AD seemed to think you were just making a move/stand. Anyway, I had 98 of clubs (not pocket 88), we were 50/50 if I call, as pointed out.