AQs vs limp-shove

OzExorcist

OzExorcist

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This one's probably fairly basic, but just wondering what other people's take on it is.

So far the villain has only shown down two hands - both paint-rag hands that made two pair. He won big with one, then lost bigger with the other one. This is the first time I've seen him make a re-raise before the flop though.

full tilt poker Game #5870338449: $1 + $0.25 Sit & Go (Turbo) (44688389), Table 1 - 40/80 - No Limit Hold'em - 17:23:47 ET - 2008/04/01
Seat 2: JeffAvs (2,090)
Seat 3: Barin22 (2,832)
Seat 4: WCMAN66 (1,200)
Seat 6: highend77_iyf (1,425)
Seat 8: xire8585 (4,378)
Seat 9: OzExorcist (1,575)
JeffAvs posts the small blind of 40
Barin22 posts the big blind of 80
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to OzExorcist [Qh Ah]
WCMAN66 calls 80
highend77_iyf has 15 seconds left to act
highend77_iyf is sitting out
highend77_iyf has timed out
highend77_iyf folds
xire8585 folds
OzExorcist raises to 300
highend77_iyf has returned
JeffAvs folds
Barin22 has 15 seconds left to act
Barin22 folds
WCMAN66 raises to 1,200, and is all in

So - WWKLD?
 
M

marble

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i would call. although tommorow i may fold. but today i'm going to call because you're getting decent odds on your money. only hands you're afraid of is AA KK QQ AK. i take turbo tournies into considaration
 
B

Bentheman87

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This is a tough one, you're getting decent pot odds of about 1.9:1 so you'd be correct to call against any pair JJ or lower. And his M is getting a bit low it's about 10 so it's a little less likely you'll see AA or KK here than if he did this earlier with a higher M. I'd call and hope he has a medium pocket pair.
 
NineLions

NineLions

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You may be ahead, but with your stack at these games I routinely fold here.

Until the blinds hit 50/100, or I'm at 10 BBs after raising, I fold just because I feel there's a better chance for me if I wait and use my chips later to outplay these players. Until it gets to that point, I'm folding anything except JJ+/AK to shoves unless he's done this more than once already.


How are you doing with these, Oz? I still play these $1/$2 ones 'cause I find them entertaining when I have 1/2 hour.
 
royalburrito24

royalburrito24

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Instantaneously fold here. Save your chips. There is no reason to get involved with this hand any further.
I am folding this for 2 reasons:
1) There is no reason to play or stacks with such a questionable hand, when we are most likely flipping or worse.
2) It is not necessary for us to double up just yet. Just wait and pick your spots carefully, rather than hoping to double up your stack here.
 
shinedown.45

shinedown.45

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This is a standard fold, most times when facing a shove from the type of player you descibed, you are most likely behind here.
Pick a better spot.
 
Effexor

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I'm folding this. It's too early to take a coinflip and you have plenty of chips left with the blinds small.
 
DetroitJimmy

DetroitJimmy

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I would call this for 2 reasons.
1.It's a turbo,I know at the levels I am playing I would have to think about it for a second then call.Sure you run across AA or KK maybe 20% of the time.Another 20% you run across AK,but it is a turbo and most of the time you're vs.AJ and smaller or a smaller pair.It's a turbo and you need to get chips early to have a REALLY good chance to win it.
2.It's a $1.25.Most likely you're flipping a coin or ahead.If ya lose it go on to the next.I used to have problems with this,but now it's almost an inst-call 4 me.

Edit:sorry I am drinking and though this was a single table turbo SNG.I still call though.
 
bob_tiger

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i would call. although tommorow i may fold. but today i'm going to call because you're getting decent odds on your money. only hands you're afraid of is AA KK QQ AK. i take turbo tournies into considaration

ok first of all i disagree with you. w/e u said on first sentence makes no sence but thats besides the point. why not fold and wait for a better opportunity, and second of all were afraid of the hands u listed but also any pp because even if we get in to a coin flip what says we hit our A or Q? possibility he has A rag AJ maybe but he says he hasnt seen him raise many hands, but this is 1.25$ so u have to take that in consideration but then this decision would also be based on br and if he was running good or cold at the time
 
OzExorcist

OzExorcist

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Looks like this one's getting a bit more discussion than I expected, so I won't post results just yet.

I am (thankfully) properly rolled for this level, if people think that's a consideration.

FWIW, my image (assuming villain has paid any attention to it) has been basically TAG to this point too.
 
OzExorcist

OzExorcist

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How are you doing with these, Oz? I still play these $1/$2 ones 'cause I find them entertaining when I have 1/2 hour.

Sorry, missed this earlier :eek:

I'm doing OK with these, maintaining an ROI around 30-35% playing a mixture of $1 / $2 games so the graph's headed in roughly the right direction. Whenever I win a $1 game I take the "free" shot at a $2 game, and as soon as I fail to cash in a $2 game I move straight back down again.

I think it's helping to keep me focussed as much as anything else, because there can be a real tendency to think "Meh, it's only a couple of bucks, what does it matter?"
 
BelgoSuisse

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I would expect he has a pocket pair. Not necessarily a big one. I don't think a call is horrible because you do get good pot odds, but you should expect to be behind, so a fold would probably be a safer plan.
 
F

feitr

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I'd fold. Limp shove normally means a lower pp, or a monster like QQ/KK/AA. So at best you are prob a slight underdog and at worst totally dominated. Ofc it is 1$ SnGs so he could have 83o for all i know.

But pot odds don't mean jack in a situation like this because it is double up or go home. So unless you want to gamble i would advise folding, because the only hand he could really do that and you be ahead is a very loose shove with AJ.
 
widowmaker89

widowmaker89

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Pot odds never mean jack, pot odds are always important if you want to win in the long run. While AA KK QQ are possible, I would think chances are he doesnt push. AK is possible as well. Most likely I would think you are going against a lower pair here. You say he is tight aggressive, but I find that to be hard to read considering the amount of hands, what makes you think this?

If you fold here you are at 1275 and the short stack at the table, not in dire needs but getting close. I am not sure how fast these turbo's go but I would think your situations will be limited. I could go either way here as it is a tough decision but unless you have seen him do this move before, I would say push, chances are you are up against a lower pair and with your pot odds thats a situation you want to be in.
 
F

feitr

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Yes pot odds do mean jack when you are playing for stacks in a tournament with low blinds.

Pot odds are for long term winnings in cash games, because you can reload if you bust, or in tournaments at high blinds/short stacks because that will be your best spot to shove, or when you are deepstacked because your tournament life is not on the line. If you think your equity is probably something like 45% here vs his hand range then you get pot odds to call. But in the majority of cases you are out of the tournament...
 
M

marble

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ok first of all i disagree with you. w/e u said on first sentence makes no sence but thats besides the point. why not fold and wait for a better opportunity, and second of all were afraid of the hands u listed but also any pp because even if we get in to a coin flip what says we hit our A or Q? possibility he has A rag AJ maybe but he says he hasnt seen him raise many hands, but this is 1.25$ so u have to take that in consideration but then this decision would also be based on br and if he was running good or cold at the time

today is tommorow when i wrote my first response and i would still call. JJ and lower is a good thing. that is a great opportunity with the odds you're getting. i wouldn't play any other games if i can get infinite opportunity like this, if he was holding a smaller pair. i'd be a millionaire.
 
F

feitr

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vs a range of 77+ AJs+, which is very conservative, then i get you having equity of 42% with AQs. Good pot odds call? Yes. Good low blinds playing for stacks call? Absolutely not unless you want to be basically busting out of the tournament 58% of the time here.
 
DetroitJimmy

DetroitJimmy

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Now that I'm sober I recant my statement.I would most likely be laying this down.Although If I had AK sooted or not,I would call.The blinds go up too damn fast in a turbo to be pussy footing around.They go up every 3 min. at FT.You are right around the time where you have to make a move to have a decent chance to win.

The only reason I would lay this down here is because you're not the one pushing it.The sad reality is you will most likely not see a hand better than this for the rest of the game.You will prolly end up having to push a 10 7 os or sumpin within the next 10 min(which is not horrible BTW).
 
M

marble

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vs a range of 77+ AJs+, which is very conservative, then i get you having equity of 42% with AQs. Good pot odds call? Yes. Good low blinds playing for stacks call? Absolutely not unless you want to be basically busting out of the tournament 58% of the time here.

again. i have no idea how you came up with those numbers, but i WOULD still take it. 42% is good enough for me. make the call and if i lose i can go pick up food for dinner.
 
F

feitr

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It is called an equity calculator, and if 42% is good enough for you i suggest that you go all in on every hand that you get, since ofc 2 undercards still have a 40% chance vs 2 over cards.

And just because you don't care about your money, doesn't mean the OP feels the same way.
 
bob_tiger

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again. i have no idea how you came up with those numbers, but i WOULD still take it. 42% is good enough for me. make the call and if i lose i can go pick up food for dinner.

lol...first of all those numbers are simple math and odds of you winning and if you are saying you want to be in behind and hope to get lucky, you will never be a winning player.
 
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