AQ for value bet? $8.80 MTT

[ChuckTs]

Villain is so far ~50/20/1 but only through like 15 hands. I've been a little limpey having limp-called a minraise last hand and check-folding a rag flop.

Villain tanks a little bit on this river then checks it to me. Can we value bet this or is it too risky?

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed)

CO (t2920)
Button (t2820)
SB (t1480)
BB (t1040)
UTG (t4765)
UTG+1 (t1520)
MP1 (t3720)
MP2 (t2060)
Hero (t1410)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A

, Q

.
3 folds, MP2 calls t30, Hero raises to t120, 4 folds, MP2 calls t90.

Flop: (t285) Q

, J

, 3

(2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets t180, MP2 calls t180.

Turn: (t645) T

(2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets t500, MP2 calls t500.

River: (t1645) Q

(2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero ...

 

[WVHillbilly]

You have only @ 600 left, so I'm sticking the rest of my stack in here. I don't think he calls your pot sized bet on the turn with a flush draw, so a straight is really the only thing that beats me I am expecting to see. I guess it's possible that he limp / called with 10 10, but with his pre-flop raise percentage I highly doubt it.

 

[tenbob]

I think I like checking behind here. Whatever draws the turn card didnt fill the river certainly did. I check here, even against a 50/20

 

[WVHillbilly]

I think I like checking behind here. Whatever draws the turn card didnt fill the river certainly did. I check here, even against a 50/20

If he hit his flush or straight why wouldn't he bet into you on the river? What does he have to gain by checking here if his hand is made? The only hand that you are behind that I can see play out this way is if the has 8 9. This early in the tourney I'm betting and looking for the double up. If I'm beat, there will be another tourney starting shortly.

 

[ChuckTs]

What calls us that we have beat though?

 

[skoldpadda]

Yep, I'm in the checking camp.

 

[ChuckTs]

I ended up checking it down. I'm still not sure if he's calling with a jack or a ten, but he obv is calling a flush/straight, in which case we go bust (assuming we shove). He'll also call with a weaker Q, but not many of those haven't filled up on that board.

I'm not sure 15 hands is enough to make any assumptions or to say that we can expect a call from a pair here.

 

[WildBullshark]

If you don't have too much personal playing experience against the guy, I don't think I like the check in this spot although you can make a reason for checking. You survive being the main one, and blinds are still low enough that you can comeback, but it would be more valuable to chip up early on in my opinion before the blinds get to 25/50. His delay on the river could be two things, either he made his hand and doesn't know how to bet it (unlikely in my opinion), or he missed a lot of outs and is trying to figure out how to win the pot he has invested so much money in. I think since you committed most of your stack by the turn, he didn't see much fold equity on your part even though a scare card hit. So why would he check if he hit his flush?

Here is why I think you should have pushed or even bet small enough to induce a re-raise for your entire stack. From the way the hand went down, I don't see him calling the turn without more than 8 or 9 outs, something like a KJ or K10 gives them 13 outs so its safe to assume one of those. He could potentially have Q9 in that spot but calling your raise preflop with Q9 out of position early on even with your read on him so far is a little unlikely.

I don't think he had J10 or AQ because you would have been raised on the turn with both of those hands in my opinion (Although if its a weak player, the J10 and Q9 are stronger possibilities).

Can't wait to find out what the person had.

 

[OzExorcist]

What calls us that we have beat though?

Zackery - not much. Maybe a KQ, or we split with another AQ.

I'm wondering if there's enough better hands than ours that fold on the river to make it worthwhile betting though: a third diamond pairing the board isn't going to be pretty for someone holding a straight, for example.

Flushes without Ad or Kd mightn't be happy either, but I can't see them folding if they've hung about this long.

So... maybe there aren't enough better hands folding to make it worthwhile, now that I've read that back, but just a thought.

 

[ChuckTs]

I really don't see a straight or flush folding. Like almost never; a push from me will be giving him like 3:1.

Like I said, I checked, and he showed down KTo.

 

[Emperor IX]

Im going to check behind here. With only 600 left you're not folding out ANY better hands (obviously) and with a call leaving him with only 400, he's not calling with anything that DOESN'T beat you.

 

[beechleaf]

i would value bet here like 50/100 too make it look like you missed for the reraise over the top