AQ UTG, sticky sat situation.

[tenbob]

This is a sat to the sunday million. Situation is we are on the bubble with 21 getting seats, there is 27 left with over half the field with an M of <2. I can survive if the blinds dont increase with less than 2 mins to go to the increase, by folding and likely get the seat if i get the bb before it hits. I can't survive the blinds otherwise. Tourney is hand for hand, and the timer dosnt stop for slow donks that dont realise it. Whats our line........ Tricky one........

pokerstars Game #14512951480: Tournament #72647315, $3+$0 Hold'em No Limit - Level XIX (15000/30000) - 2008/01/12 - 18:51:52 (ET)
Table '72647315 13' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: chuckyd52 (76530 in chips)
Seat 2: dvc1972 (63405 in chips)
Seat 3: englefjes (121977 in chips)
Seat 4: tenbob (66180 in chips)
Seat 5: 3615 (7725 in chips)
Seat 6: nemo650 (177065 in chips)
Seat 7: hwdc (25466 in chips)
Seat 8: bonnebaise (44626 in chips)
Seat 9: Russchampion (10692 in chips)
chuckyd52: posts the ante 1500
dvc1972: posts the ante 1500
englefjes: posts the ante 1500
tenbob: posts the ante 1500
3615: posts the ante 1500
nemo650: posts the ante 1500
hwdc: posts the ante 1500
bonnebaise: posts the ante 1500
Russchampion: posts the ante 1500
dvc1972: posts small blind 15000
englefjes: posts big blind 30000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to tenbob [Qc Ah]
tenbob: ???

 

[pantin007]

well altho it looks decent situation, i think u should fold,it is way to close to getting a seat to risk ur chips
i mean the person in the bb could call u with anything seeing it is like a min raise to him and he can afford{more than the rest of yous] and then there might be a few players who will push as well seeing that stacks are low
ur really not going to be dominating anybody anyway so i would fold and remember 1st pays same as 21st

 

[Egon Towst]

Stick `em in the middle. You are unlikely to see a better chance.

There is nothing worse than being blinded out of a tourney on the bubble. Better to go down fighting if needs must.

Although it`s possible, as Pantin says, that you will suck in multiple callers, it`s equally possible that the opposition will give you credit for a hand when you make a bold move at such a critical stage.

I played a satellite a week or two ago and, in a similar situation, I went from short-stack to nearly chipleader in two rounds of the table. Everyone was playing so scared that I got away with stealing the blinds and antes about 8 times in a dozen hands !

 

[ChuckTs]

I think I agree with a fold. Judging by the stack sizes at your table I think that if you don't lose a couple players now, you definitely will lose the remaining potential bubblers some time the next orbit.

I prob fold and just pray some a$$hole doesn't stall. It is quite close though and I'd be eyeing the remaining stacks at other tables very closely.

 

[pantin007]

and seets 2 ,5 , 7, 8,9 are shorter stacks than u and they will have a much harder time to survive the blinds
they cant even afford to post the small and bigblind
u will still have like 3K in chips left after u pass the small blind
so u have 4 hands if u fold this which i think is plenty in this scenario

 

[ChuckTs]

I think the matter is whether tb will even survive this hit from the blinds since it may even go up by the time they hit him.

Definitely a close one and I think we would need like every stack size as well as the exact time left, the positions of the short stacks on other tables etc etc to actually give a definitive answer.

 

[pantin007]

well if there are 5 stacks lower than his at this table then there must be atleast 13 ppl with shorter stacks than him in the tourny
but it really is a close between call and fold

 

[Rossta]

I would advise a fold in this situation. With the blinds as high as they are, waiting a few hands will yield a good amount of players out. Also, it's very unlikely that any callers would have a worse hand than you at this point in the tournament. However, shoving wouldnt be such a bad move in this situation either and I feel that there is a very fine line between the two.

 

[royalburrito24]

ban that a-hole.

 

[Egon Towst]

ban that a-hole.

What ? Who ?

 

[Irexes]

Some fool spamming nonsense everywhere.

He is no longer with us.

 

[switch0723]

i push here, for 3 reasons.

1. you may not get through the blinds before they increase, then you will be all in with worse cards.

2. A push here is likely to get around hte table and you will pick up the blinds, if you are called you are very likely a favourite and will be in a great spot to get a seat

3. If you fold, and do survive the blinds, there is no guarantee the shorter stacks will be knocked out, if some of them get through on the big blind, we will have to face another round of blinds.

 

[nudist30]

Yep I completely agree

With the foxy lady up above(if that is really you hehe). I would be pushing all in as that is probably going to be the best hand you will ever see. So what is the end result? Did you win, did you lose? What what. Personally I think you got a great shot but then again donks win way too much online so who knows.

 

[ChuckTs]

i push here, for 3 reasons.

1. you may not get through the blinds before they increase, then you will be all in with worse cards.

2. A push here is likely to get around hte table and you will pick up the blinds, if you are called you are very likely a favourite and will be in a great spot to get a seat

3. If you fold, and do survive the blinds, there is no guarantee the shorter stacks will be knocked out, if some of them get through on the big blind, we will have to face another round of blinds.

gotta disagree.

2) you'll rarely be a favourite if called since others will rarely call off their stack this close to the money with anything worse than AQ.

3) I don't think this is true either - the blinds will eat through the short stacks probably within half an orbit after the blinds hit you.

 

[vanquish]

since it's 2 minutes til blind increase, you can fold and survive the blind hit and get in imo

 

[Four Dogs]

I don't think you'll see the blinds again before the next increase. These bubble hands things have a way of slowing down to a glacial speed. One hand alone can last 2 minutes. Even if you do the antes will do the trick just the same. You have to play another hand. I think you look at this hand as an opportunity. The bright side is that you will most likely pick up the blinds or get called by a far worse hand.

 

[switch0723]

gotta disagree.

2) you'll rarely be a favourite if called since others will rarely call off their stack this close to the money with anything worse than AQ.

3) I don't think this is true either - the blinds will eat through the short stacks probably within half an orbit after the blinds hit you.

2) that is true, but that means we are only going to be called by a premium hand, meaning our push is more than likely going to pick up the blinds

3) When a shortstack is all in, they may still get lucky and quadruple up or something like that, also someone needs to have the guts around hte table to put chips into the pot to knock out the blinds, i only see the large stacks doing this and probably will only risk it with a good enough hand. There is no guarantee that this will happen, id rather take it into my own hands and push

 

[OzExorcist]

For me it really depends on how the rest of the table's been playing - if there's a 50-50 chance of picking up the blinds and antes, I think I shove this.

My problem with folding out is that we're relying on six people to lose their all-in hand - if one or two of them either wake up with a hand or suck out, then we're in really bad shape.

Gross decision either way though.

 

[pantin007]

the thing with this situation is u can justify making both plays{fold or push}
but like 4dogs said 1 hand could last 2 minutes and if u are caught in the blind increase ur all in on the small blind{involunarily}so this is really really tough decision, but i still think a fold is in order

 

[SeanyJ]

I was in almost this exact situation yesterday, I did a satellite to get into the $55, 50,000 guaranteed on PS. I think we were 8 people away from getting seats and I got AQo UTG+1. I shoved and got called by a huge stack with 10 J and he hit a jack and knocked me out.

This situation is a little different though, the stacks weren't nearly as big as the tourny only lasted probably an hour or so. I could see someone calling you here with a weaker ace easily, but you could be in a race as well. I think I would probably shove here and hope to get the blinds, if you get the blinds you can make it into the tourny pretty easily I think.

 

[Kennyseven]

should I stay or should i go now

I would literally flip a coin in this situation and let fate have a say so.

 

[Four Dogs]

gotta disagree.

2) you'll rarely be a favourite if called since others will rarely call off their stack this close to the money with anything worse than AQ.

3) I don't think this is true either - the blinds will eat through the short stacks probably within half an orbit after the blinds hit you.

I gotta disagree with your disagreement. IMO alot of weaker hands call here, not from the big stacks, but from the short stacks. Chances are very good your gonna pick up the blinds without a fight, but for those stacks in worse shape than you, who know that they're going to have to play a hand -probably as an underdog- any ace, pair, 2 high cards, 2 live cards or any spec hand will do. They're not looking for a lock, just a fighting hand.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

and the timer dosnt stop for slow donks that dont realise it.

they're not necessarily donks if they're stalling here. take your position and say instead of two mins there's five mins to the blind hike. then it would be very much in your interest to stall so as to engineer a situation where you're on the button as the blinds go up.

with only two mins left we can't do that here - there's not enough time, and it's so likely that someone else will (whether wisely or unwisely) be stalling that we can pretty safely say this will be the last hand before the blind hike.

if the blind hike is to 20/40/2 (this isn't specified in the OP and it really needs to be) then we can basically only survive three more hands before being forced allin - which will invariably not be enough to outlast other shorties.

re: the 'weaker hands will/won't call' debate - it doesn't really matter. we don't want to be called here - whether it be by AA, KJ or A6 - we want to pick up chips with zero risk. luckily for us both the blinds do not have to get involved here at all - in fact it's probably optimal for them to fold even AA to our shove (and they should definitely be folding KK).

basically, my initial instinct was 'fold', as my initial instinct always tends to be in satellite situations, but this looks like a clear shove to me.

 

[Four Dogs]

re: the 'weaker hands will/won't call' debate - it doesn't really matter. we don't want to be called here - whether it be by AA, KJ or A6 - we want to pick up chips with zero risk. luckily for us both the blinds do not have to get involved here at all - in fact it's probably optimal for them to fold even AA to our shove (and they should definitely be folding KK).

NP Chris. I've been playing alot of these satelites lately and would be very interested in reading more about this stalling strategy.

I'm not implying that we want a call. Obv we don't, we just want to get through the blinds. But if your decision to fold or shove is based on whether of not you'll be an underdog if called, and the likelyhood that that will happen, then IMO calling ranges matter very much. If I have a 50/50 chance of pulling this off without a fight, then it's important to know if i'm going to be a 2:1 favorite or a 2:1 dog those times that I do get called.

 

[ChuckTs]

What Chris means is that it's not a matter of what shape we're in when we get called, but how likely we are to get called if we push.

Anyways I agree with Chris in that this is an issue of whether we'll survive this blind round if we fold. The next blind level is pretty important here, and I'm starting to think if it is 20/40/2k, we'll most probably be dead by the time they're done with us. "less than 2 minutes" isn't enough time, I think.

I think you may have just shifted my fold to a push here, Chris.