AK in the Big Blind.

[baudib1]

yeah, I would assume if he is generally tight but loosening up, he is perfectly capable of raise-folding something like 77 here.

 

[baudib1]

I would like to think that my table image is pretty strong. I'm about 22/15 at this point of the tournament, I'm known to make continuation bets, but have shown down strong hands when called.

My read is over about 300 hands.

My read on him is 20/5 so I know he's not raising that often. He bets the flop... surprise... 31 percent of the time. I have seen him raise and show down 10/10, J/J, A/A, A/K, A/Q. His usual raise was 3x the big blind. Nearly every time. This was the first time he had deviated from that I believe. I think that had some effect on what I did.

The only other time I saw him raise from UTG was with JJ, and that was his normal 3x the big blind. And he rode that all the way to the river with an ace on board.

Yeah, I kind of really try to pay attention to the guy directly the left and right of me. I blame it on OCD or something.

I actually considered folding because I felt I was getting the best of it at the table lately, and almost didnt want to risk my entire tournament on a coin flip.

I wanted to make sure calling and seeing a flop wasnt an option here. I was pretty sure it was a terrible move to just call, which gave me two options.

However, I knew what I should do, and I pushed. I thought of the fold equity and adding that onto the probability of a coinflip or a dominating ace, it came automatic (Which is good) for me.

He turned over aces, and they held up to knock me out of the tournament.

Here's the thing: Even if he had not loosened up recently and his 5% PFR was still accurate...Let's say he is raising 99+, AQo+ (5.1%)..you STILL have 49% equity against this nitty range. That means shoving is STILL easily correct because of the dead chips in the pot and the chance that he might fold the bottom part of his range (99, AQ).

Frankly, I'm not sure why he would raise bigger with AA than his other hands...maybe because he is UTG but I'd be more scared of the UTG min-raise from a tight player.

The fact that he showed up at the very top of his range is just a cooler.

 

[cardsDontMatter]

Really? I cannot convince any of you that tempering your hand here is at least an option?

Had the OP been the first in... auto-shove, yes. The OP admits to 300 hands with villain and has a read on him, which by all intents and purposes is dead on and NO ONE WANTS TO TAKE THAT INTO CONSIDERATION... just shove your chips and pray ON A DRAWING HAND against a tight player raising from EP.

77+, AQ, AK are the hands i am re-raising all in, but not against a read HU who is entering with a raise from EP. Nitty?

Not me. The Villain is and that's enough to think about the situation.

 

[Steveg1976]

Really? I cannot convince any of you that tempering your hand here is at least an option?

Had the OP been the first in... auto-shove, yes. The OP admits to 300 hands with villain and has a read on him, which by all intents and purposes is dead on and NO ONE WANTS TO TAKE THAT INTO CONSIDERATION... just shove your chips and pray ON A DRAWING HAND against a tight player raising from EP.

77+, AQ, AK are the hands i am re-raising all in, but not against a read HU who is entering with a raise from EP. Nitty?

Not me. The Villain is and that's enough to think about the situation.

Did you ever see the movie Jaws? If you did, do you remember the scene where Richard Dreyfus's character is trying to explain to the Mayor why he needs to close the beaches so that more people don't get eaten by the giant shark. I feel like Richard Dreyfus right now just laughing, except this time it is going to be you eaten by the sharks. Thank you.

 

[vanquish]

ON A DRAWING HAND

every hand is a drawing hand

 

[pantin007]

Really? I cannot convince any of you that tempering your hand here is at least an option?

Had the OP been the first in... auto-shove, yes. The OP admits to 300 hands with villain and has a read on him, which by all intents and purposes is dead on and NO ONE WANTS TO TAKE THAT INTO CONSIDERATION... just shove your chips and pray ON A DRAWING HAND against a tight player raising from EP.

77+, AQ, AK are the hands i am re-raising all in, but not against a read HU who is entering with a raise from EP. Nitty?

Not me. The Villain is and that's enough to think about the situation.

villain has a preflop raise of 5% which means he is raising more than AA/KK

btw, ur post makes no sense

 

[baudib1]

Really? I cannot convince any of you that tempering your hand here is at least an option?

Had the OP been the first in... auto-shove, yes. The OP admits to 300 hands with villain and has a read on him, which by all intents and purposes is dead on and NO ONE WANTS TO TAKE THAT INTO CONSIDERATION... just shove your chips and pray ON A DRAWING HAND against a tight player raising from EP.

77+, AQ, AK are the hands i am re-raising all in, but not against a read HU who is entering with a raise from EP. Nitty?

Not me. The Villain is and that's enough to think about the situation.

I think you are letting results get in the way here. If hero had JJ (roughly the same equity vs. a 5.1% range), would you say it's OK because it's not a "drawing hand"?

Just because someone is nitty doesn't mean they have the nuts every time they raise. Hero had a good read on him but to be honest, in MTT play reads are always somewhat sketchy. Keep in mind also that he had opened up his play and was raising more frequently of late, very common for big stacks on the bubble (and correct).

If someone is REALLY nitty, then they are capable of making big laydowns. Maybe he folds a hand as strong as JJ or AK because he doesn't want to "flip" for half his stack.

300 hands seems like a lot but it is not. For one thing, good players shift gears constantly. There are many times where I think "oh this is a tight player, I can't call with AJs oop here." And then they get to showdown with A9 or KJ or something.

Note also that villain had always raised 3xBB; raising 3.5xBB seems less a sign of strength but one of weakness. A good hand that he doesn't really want action on or play OOP -- maybe 77-TT or AQ or something. Now this assessment is completely wrong and kudos for villain for duping us, but really, do you want to scare people away when you have AA? But this is clearly a case where our reads would have worked against us.

 

[cardsDontMatter]

every hand is a drawing hand

AK is a drawing hand, and some erroneously feel it's a made hand... it's the best drawing hand.

22-AA are made hands. They beat EVERY drawing hand.

Try again.

I think you are letting results get in the way here.

I posted my initial thoughts before results. The OP didn't mention anything else besides his read. The first response was, "Don't even think about it, Shove." If that were the case, the OP doesn't need to make this Post, right? But he's asking advice and I am telling him "maybe next time, go with your reads..."

Then everyone hopped on the Fold Equity bandwagon ... and in this case, AK doesn't matter if you think this "nitty" player is capable of folding any hand that represents the 50% of his chips this call will take... therefore you shove with ANY TWO CARDS. AK doesn't mean squat here... the OP's IMAGE DOES!!!!!!! No one has even mentioned this aspect of the hand:

WHAT IS OP's IMAGE!!!??? Does OP have the respect at the table of making this move with top 10%???

and.. now.. the Jaws reference? C'mon... I am Dreyfuss here.. and by the way, I saw that movie when it premiered in the 70s..

 

[pantin007]

AK is a drawing hand, and some erroneously feel it's a made hand... it's the best drawing hand.

22-AA are made hands. They beat EVERY drawing hand.

Try again.

so are u telling me that in this situation u would prefer to shove with 22 here? because in this hand 2-2 is almost always crushed while A-K will always have outs as it is quite unlikely that villain has AA or KK

 

[mr tinkles]

wow, fireworks! Did anyone look at the starting stacks?

why bust out now?

see a cheap flop, and you can check fold.

Whoops they had ppA? Easy fold. Why shove when your read is that good?

 

[vanquish]

AK is a drawing hand, and some erroneously feel it's a made hand... it's the best drawing hand.

22-AA are made hands. They beat EVERY drawing hand.

Try again.

congratulations, you are mentally retarded! would you rather have ATcc on a 9877cc board against 3s3d or the other way around? WAIT OMG U CANT GO AWRIN WITH DRAWING HANDS U BETTER TAKE 33

 

[cardsDontMatter]

so are u telling me that in this situation u would prefer to shove with 22 here? because in this hand 2-2 is almost always crushed while A-K will always have outs as it is quite unlikely that villain has AA or KK

One more time... HERO'S CARDS DO NOT MATTER... If Hero believes Villain will fold to an all-in that costs him 50% of his stack...PUSH WITH ANY TWO CARDS

The only situation here, and I can't believe I have to say it again, is whether or not Hero believes his read on Villain.

Hero's read: Villain is Tight and raising from EP, and actually notching it up during this hand.

Believe your read and move on.

as for your stats

Hand 0: 87.859% 87.23% 00.63% 1493670 10751.50 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 12.141% 11.51% 00.63% 197131 10751.50 { AcKc }

Hand 0: 81.548% 81.30% 00.25% 1392072 4280.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 18.452% 18.20% 00.25% 311672 4280.00 { 2c2d }

and I even gave you SOOOOOTED AK.. but to twist the knife.. here is AKo

Hand 0: 92.575% 91.95% 00.63% 1574439 10724.50 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 07.425% 06.80% 00.63% 116416 10724.50 { AcKd }

so yes.. I'd rather be pushing 22 here than AK...

 

[cardsDontMatter]

congratulations, you are mentally retarded! would you rather have ATcc on a 9877cc board against 3s3d or the other way around? WAIT OMG U CANT GO AWRIN WITH DRAWING HANDS U BETTER TAKE 33

thank you, you just made my case for seeing a flop.

 

[Morpheus]

Half stack bet. Next hand you're getting AA so save the other half for then.

 

[Jillychemung]

Well cards you can't assign just AA to the villain as that's results oriented

Huge Nit range (which IMHO villain isn't)
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.348% 42.22% 09.13% 36870021 7971220.00 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 48.652% 39.52% 09.13% 34515043 7971220.00 { AcKd }

10% range
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.464% 37.41% 05.05% 65983373 8908446.50 { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 57.536% 52.49% 05.05% 92567046 8908446.50 { AcKd }

At this point of the tournament with these stacks I'm getting AK in here every time.

 

[vanquish]

thank you, you just made my case for seeing a flop.

wow i'm on raging tilt because of your existence.

what happens when we miss the flop with AK, and our opponent misses with AQ? what about when we hit our K and our opponent misses with AQ? what about when we hit our A but the flop comes AJT monotone? why would we want to play a "drawing hand" (as you call it, however this term is retarded) OOP, giving our opponent the ultimate positional advantage.

in your "omg 22 and 33 and 44 beet AK" tirade you neglected the fact that AK can dominate a lot of hands (Ax, Kx) which make up a huge part of villains range (besides the fact that he also folds a lot of pairs to a shove, so we can fold out "better" hands) and is therefore a great hand to get it in with.

seriously pls stop embarassing yourself

 

[baudib1]

Because avoiding busting out is not the point.

 

[vanquish]

Because avoiding busting out is not the point.

quote button is on the bottom right. use it pls

 

[S93]

AK is a drawing hand, and some erroneously feel it's a made hand... it's the best drawing hand.

22-AA are made hands. They beat EVERY drawing hand.

Try again.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.334% 49.39% 00.95% 6215338932 119416020.00 { 22 }
Hand 1: 49.666% 48.72% 00.95% 6131263428 119416020.00 { random }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.751% 64.91% 00.84% 21783519396 283348986.00 { AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 34.249% 33.40% 00.84% 11210941032 283348986.00 { random }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.008% 31.69% 00.32% 214883064 2153022.00 { 22 }
Hand 1: 67.992% 67.67% 00.32% 458883276 2153022.00 { 88+, AJs+, KQs, AKo }


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.092% 38.18% 08.92% 522952912 122138384.00 { AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 52.908% 43.99% 08.92% 602613520 122138384.00 { 88+, AJs+, KQs, AKo }


22 is obvs so much better because its already "made"

 

[cardsDontMatter]

wow i'm on raging tilt because of your existence.

what happens when we miss the flop with AK, and our opponent misses with AQ? what about when we hit our K and our opponent misses with AQ? what about when we hit our A but the flop comes AJT monotone? why would we want to play a "drawing hand" (as you call it, however this term is retarded) OOP, giving our opponent the ultimate positional advantage.

in your "omg 22 and 33 and 44 beet AK" tirade you neglected the fact that AK can dominate a lot of hands (Ax, Kx) which make up a huge part of villains range (besides the fact that he also folds a lot of pairs to a shove, so we can fold out "better" hands) and is therefore a great hand to get it in with.

seriously pls stop embarassing yourself

First of all, I have never used the acronym OMG (until now) in any of my posts. You used it when you called me mentally retarded, which by the way, is something I wouldn't expect in a Forum from someone with 6,000 posts.

I am relatively new here and if you think calling someone in the community retarded (twice now) is good forum etiquette, then I take anything you talk about here with a grain of salt and find your posts in this thread to be "embarassing" to you.

I am simply offering another point of logic in poker when it comes to a heads up hand with a player that can knock you out and you do not have first in vigorish, and you have a read. It's not an auto-shove, but shoving is a viable option. Seeing a flop, while not pot-committing yourself is just another viable option.

Drawing hand is a term used in Poker, I don't understand your resistance to this term.

 

[baudib1]

I did some checking on my HEM stats. Through 66,000 hands, I've been all-in preflop with AK and 1+ callers 248 times. That's 68 times with AKs and 180 times with AKo. My W$SD % is 67.6% with AKs and 62.2% with AKo. Doing a check on couple dozen hands, I'm clearly getting it in way, way ahead quite a bit, giving lie to the notion that we are "flipping at best" with AK.

Also, this does not count the times I open-shove or 3-bet shove and get all folds.

 

[LizzyJ]

I would shove and put HIM to the test. If you just call, when the flop hits and you don't pair the board, the villian is going to put YOU to test. Make him decide his fate.

 

[herestoya]

It's worth a call. You can always see the flop, if you weren't raised you could possibly have the weaker hand anyway? I would put him on a mediocre pair.

 

[JoeDi]

I call.. AK isnt a made hand and you need to see a flop.. His stack is larger than yours which means he can call and not risk his tourny...If you push and he has JJ and you dont hit something your tourny is over...

 

[Yeti]

I'm quite tempted to simply fold and wait for a better spot later in the tournament.

Whilst I can accept the view that calling and seeing what appears on the flop could be an option in a later position, in early position I do not see this as viable as you are not getting the correct odds to hit a hand and have the best of it compared to the amount of stack you've invested. In a later position taking the pot without contest is much more viable and makes the play worthwhile.

Shoving is an option pressed quite heavily in this thread. One reason given for this is fold equity - but I don't honestly believe there's enough there. For half his stack, I imagine Villain would be very tempted to call with any sort of pair - and as mentioned in another post any pair beats AK. From EP I highly doubt any respectable tight player would raise with AQ/AJ/AT - which leaves him with 99-AA I believe. Followed with the slightly larger raise than normal, it puts him on at least Queens. AK has got the worst of it with any of Villain's three hands - which is why shoving is essentially asking for an execution. There seems to be a general census of hate towards CardsDONTMATTER's posts, but he certainly has a point regarding not paying attention to reads.

Therefore, with both shoving and calling out of the question based on a combination of reads and position - it seems better to fold and wait it out until a better spot appears. Given Villain is relatively tight player there's a likelyhood Hero could simply get his blind back in the next hand.