AK facing turn shove

The Shrog

The Shrog

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Bubble of 9 handed SNG



full tilt poker Game #6199978131: $30 + $3 Sit & Go (47185091), Table 1 - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 16:53:10 ET - 2008/04/27
Seat 4: howdathappen (5,635)
Seat 5: burlious (3,720)
Seat 6: bjartulf (1,115)
Seat 8: The Shrog (3,030)
howdathappen posts the small blind of 100
burlious posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to The Shrog [Ad Ks]
bjartulf folds
The Shrog raises to 500
howdathappen folds
burlious calls 300
*** FLOP *** [Ac 6s 4s]
burlious checks
The Shrog bets 800
burlious calls 800
*** TURN *** [Ac 6s 4s] [7s]
burlious bets 2,420, and is all in
 
C

CfPoker

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This is probably read dependant. It's a very scary board. Is villian capable of bluffing this?
 
BigBlue

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i would fold - i get burnt on AK way too many times. (more than any other hand)
 
dwbrown7680

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No point in folding this, you've invested 1300 of your 3k stack, have TPTK and the 2nd nut flush draw....you're ahead of most of his range here, and even if he spiked a set you have the outs to the flush....unless you have a good read here and think you've fallen completely far behind I say go with it and be happy when you find out you're ahead.....you should be making moves to win the SnG, not just cruise into 3rd place.
 
The Shrog

The Shrog

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Thanks for the advice dw..blue, any other reasoning besides "i get burnt by ace king"..?
 
robwhufc

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This is probably read dependant. It's a very scary board. Is villian capable of bluffing this?

Without fail, on a Hand Analysis thread like this, someone will say "read dependant" or "got any reads?". I often ask "what sort of read are you looking for?" and never get a reply! It's a SnG, how many hands similar to this would you have played with this guy? 1? 2? Is that enough to get a read? It's 4 handed, blinds have risen, starting hand requirements have fallen, and most players have changed gears and are playing differently to when they started. So what would you have had to have observed to change your mind in this hand, from call to fold (or vice versa?).
 
pokerace3454

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i would not fold this if he spiked his set it happens and you have gutshot flush draw
 
z28_RoadRage

z28_RoadRage

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I would have raised more preflop. You gave him good odds to see the flop, so he could have called with almost ATC. I think if he had pkts, he would have re-raised or shoved preflop, I think he's bluffing as you have been the aggressor and he would have waited for you to bet first. There's no way I would fold this, but he might have caught 2pr and is afraid of you hitting trips.
 
AlexeiVronsky

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Looks like it's likely a power play here. It seems unlikely he's going to have played a flush this way a lot more likely he would've led out or checkraised rather than get so committed with a call or folded if he didn't think he could get you off the hand, if he's any kind of decent player, doubt he pay 800 for an inside straight draw on the flop. A flopped set or A7 with a lesser likelihood of a two pair on the flop that he decided to slowplay are what I'd be most worried about. He could very well be making this play knowing that you'll need a huge hand to call on the bubble if this is a single table with only 3 spots paying with complete air. So I think you're usually going to be ahead in the hand here, but not so likely as to risk going out on the bubble if that's the case here. So I'm going with fold on the bubble, call otherwise. In these bubble situations it's better to plan how to be able to get yourself to be the first one to push in, so you can take advantage of bubble effects against people you threaten.
 
t1riel

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Bet more on the flop. It's an awful board after the turn. An Ace-rag spades is a possiblity. It's tough to fold this, but you may have to, especially since you're on the bubble.
 
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feitr

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I think it is probably best to shove the flop in this case. After the flop you are MILES ahead of his range but it's a pretty drawy board so you don't really want him taking another card.
 
odinscott

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Man I dont agree with calling that, you arent pot committed. You have enough chips that laying this one down wont hurt you. You have to put in almost 2500 more chips. This really does depend on opponent, if he is known to be LAG and to bluff, you are probably ok, but if he is tight, you are surely beat. It could be a (semi) bluff, but even if it is, what if he hits it? You are crippled either way. You could call and hope for the best, I wouldnt really blame you, but dont listen to anyone telling you that you cant lay this down... Nothing wrong with getting away from a beat hand and living to win another day!
 
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