AJo UTG - what am I up against?!?

[OzExorcist]

It's a little way into this SnG, nobody's been eliminated yet and play has been fairly conservative all round. I won a few pots early, but haven't played anything other than my blinds in the past few rounds.

Villain has been much the same - called a similar pre-flop bet I made on a previous round (I had AA that time, didn't get to showdown though), then folded when I bet a similar looking flop.

full tilt poker Game #4161074547: $2 + $0.25 Sit & Go (31592053), Table 1 - 30/60 - No Limit Hold'em - 7:02:38 ET - 2007/11/13
Seat 1: KingSnus (1,350)
Seat 2: DonbaeLuck (640)
Seat 3: Zephyr98 (670)
Seat 4: THAYNEB (2,680)
Seat 5: Murmula (1,015)
Seat 6: OzExorcist (2,100)
Seat 7: callacab28 (2,025)
Seat 8: mishou (1,420)
Seat 9: HarrmesHarr (1,600)
THAYNEB posts the small blind of 30
Murmula posts the big blind of 60
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to OzExorcist [As Jh]
OzExorcist raises to 200
callacab28 folds
mishou calls 200
HarrmesHarr folds
KingSnus folds
DonbaeLuck folds
Zephyr98 folds
THAYNEB folds
Murmula folds
*** FLOP *** [9h 2h 5c]
OzExorcist bets 350
mishou has 15 seconds left to act
mishou calls 350
*** TURN *** [9h 2h 5c] [7s]
OzExorcist checks
mishou bets 870, and is all in

 

[dweezel]

I would guess .......a set or pocket 10's
He flat called your 350 raise then pushed when you checked the turn.
With the push I would lean towards the 10's

 

[NineLions]

I'd fold, expecting 66/88/44/33, even A5/A9s.

But, I'd also guess 1-3 chance it's nothing and he reads your turn check as a missed flop/cbet and he can push you off. In my experience on these at FT until the blinds reach 80 or 100 people are still trying to pull out their best Phil Ivey imitations.

 

[mizzo5678]

I'm thinking a possible flush draw for him, he just calls the bet made on the flop to see another card, and then takes your check as weakness and decides to push all in in the hopes you hit nothing and have to fold.

 

[jeffred1111]

I fold this a lot and I like a smaller bet on the flop since flop is semi-wet (some flush-draws, PP pairs that flat call won't believe you have hit, etc.), we are OOP and cannot let a big pot make us check on the turn because this is what happens 90% of the time. I can see 44+ doing this, as well as flush draw and air, but really, our air might not be hotter than his.

I might even check my options after getting called by a player you say is tight. No shame in raising a legitimate hand, getting called and letting it go wehn you flop nothing OOP.

 

[jaketrevvor]

Nice size raise PF, nice size c-bet and I would probably put him all-in on turn. Bit radical? well here's my reasoning...

You say he's fairly tight so PF he's not going to be calling an UTG raiser without a pp or AJ+ lets say. He can't be playing QQ-AA (and probs not JJ either) as with so many people left to act in front of him PF he would have had to reraise if he had any sense whatsoever. When you c-bet the flop it's unlikely that he could have Ts as with an overpair and his size stack vs size of pot he'd have to jam it while he still has some FE against the your AK it looks like you're playing. The key point here is that he takes his time to call your c-bet:

mishou has 15 seconds left to act

meaning he's either:

i) deciding how to play his flopped set
ii) deciding whether his 88 is still good
iii) whether it's worth calling you down with AQ as it looks like a classic c-bet

From the benefit of hindsight (cheating a little, I know ) when he jammed it after you checked on the turn it is very unlikely he had the set, as he wouldn't lay a trap on the flop just to blow it on the turn. This means he either has a lower pp which he would fold to your all-in (tight player) or AQ/(AK pos.) which he would also fold = you win the pot!