AA in EP vs paired + FD board

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ph_il

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Still early in the SNG, 7th or 8th hand into the game. So, no reads on players.

Stage #1172360536 Tourney ID 1858397 Holdem Single Tournament No Limit $20 - 2008-05-08 13:17:58 (ET)
Table: 21528287 (real money) Seat #3 is the dealer
Seat 1 - LENDRICK ($1110 in chips)
Seat 2 - FOAMFIVE ($1690 in chips)
Seat 3 - THEE_BEST ($1410 in chips)
Seat 4 - VICENTAZO ($1790 in chips)
Seat 5 - ACEHIGHPLAYR ($1480 in chips)
Seat 6 - BANTONRAMBO2 ($2070 in chips)
Seat 7 - TRM_SHRIMP ($1470 in chips)
Seat 8 - SCAINES ($1190 in chips)
Seat 9 - MARTY_BAGS ($1290 in chips)
VICENTAZO - Posts small blind $10
ACEHIGHPLAYR - Posts big blind $20
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to TRM_SHRIMP [Ah Ad]
BANTONRAMBO2 - Calls $20
TRM_SHRIMP - Raises $100 to $100
SCAINES - Folds
MARTY_BAGS - Folds
LENDRICK - Calls $100
FOAMFIVE - Calls $100
THEE_BEST - Folds
VICENTAZO - Folds
ACEHIGHPLAYR - Folds
BANTONRAMBO2 - Calls $80
*** FLOP *** [Jc 5c Js]
BANTONRAMBO2 - Checks
TRM_SHRIMP - ????

Whats my best option here?
 
Jillychemung

Jillychemung

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I bet $250 and fold to any raise, check/fold the turn and river. Anyone holding a J will probably slow play this unless they don't like the 2 clubs on board. The C-bet is mostly for image purposes for later hands. Small ball would be to check/call a small bet and see what the turn brings.
 
dj11

dj11

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First level AA, the bane of my existence, and with 3 callers. I hate this hand!;)

It is the 3 callers that you should be concerned with. I might be inclined to fire one bullet at this. Close to a pot size bet. Pot is about $430, I would probably fire $350 at it. I'd love to tell you I would go no further, but I can't honestly say that.

But I think I prefer to c/c or c/r here. I fear there is no correct action for this.

The big stack coming in has checked, telling us nothing. Rather it might tell us he wants to see what will happen. I would want to suggest to him we have something very serious here. Quick off the cuff math suggests that about 44% of the time someone MIGHT have a J, so at best we are now probably not more than a 55% favorite here (forgive me, I have no calculator handy).

It is that school that bothers me in this situation. You made a good shot preflop, but with the first caller (and next to act after whatever you do here) the pot odds got a bit more favorable for the next to act they got even more favorable and the cascade created this conundrum.

Since you have few if any reads this early, I don't think going broke here is out of the question, you may be drawing damn near dead at this point.
 
Jillychemung

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Yeah I don't go broke here either but as initial raiser, for image purposes, I want to bet out to say that I'm not raising junk that is just going to fold up and die on a scary board. I feel if I check/fold or check/call here I'm starting to set up a passive image.
 
t1riel

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Bet the pot and see what he does. A call or raise should tell you if he has a Jack or not. Bet for some information. I would even consider checking if he calls and a club comes on the turn.
 
odinscott

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I wouldnt be thinking about folding at this point. He isnt really showing any strength, but since the board is a bit scary, I would put a bit bigger raise than normal. I am thinking as much as 250. That should be a good indicator of where he is, plus if he just calls, and the turn is a blank, I would fire again. This looks alot like some kind of draw on his part.
 
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ph_il

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You do notice that Im first to act with 3 other players behind me, right? If this was heads up, I'd have no problems but what do I do vs 3 players?
 
Melkor

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Bad spot. Very unfortunate for you to have picked up AA when the blinds are low, when people are calling with junk and when we are OOP. That really hurts us in this hand, as checked to us in position, we can bet and then fold to the check-raise without too many problems, and slow down to a check-call. But here, a J could call behind, but so could the flush draw, and even a middling pair.

Pre-flop is completely standard, of course, but the little piece of info we can take is that it is very unlikely that anyone has KK or QQ. Irrelevent you may think, but it eliminates two possibilities that would attack this flop that we beat. Small, but half important info.

After the flop, we shouldn't check. A check-fold is weak beyond comprehension and a check-call is not great either. We can't get the other hands to fold by checking and therefore don't have the opportunity to take the pot down now. Check-calling also means we are still putting the same amount of chips in, roughly, as we would leading out but does not allow a J to raise us on the flop. We can then get away from the hand if raised on the flop and live to fight another day. If we check-call and a none club hits the turn, how are we going to play it assuming we are first to act? Just because one of the two villains behind bet that does not suggest a J automatically. Flush draw could bet, middling pair could bet, a misplaced bluff could also try and take a stab in position. That means we should be making a bet on the turn if a safe card appears, but if we are raised all-in it suddenly looks like a J and we could be compelled to call having put more chips in the pot. Put simply, it requires us to put more of our stack in the pot in a situation that is not too good for us.

So I believe we should certainly bet, but to bet the pot, or just over or just under, is unneccessary. A jack should raise , and I think it would, whether the bet is 200 or 450. However, a middle pair and flush draw can't call a pot bet. It is a dangerous place to be betting for value but we must remember we can't just put our opponent on a J because it is the only hand that beats us. It is likely, but by no means certain. A bet around 250 allows a few worse hands to call but also means a J will still raise. It cuts down our losses if we are raised, and includes reducing the pot odds, and still lets us find out some information.

If someone is playing a J tricky and flat calls then we are in a spot that requires a turn bet imo, but a tricky J would call the bigger bet and then the pot is too big for us to fire on the turn and allows flush draws etc. to bluff us out as well.
 
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feitr

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Well you have to bet, but it is a tricky hand. Fold to a reraise i guess and i'd check turn if somebody calls your c-bet. You can't check flop tho or you are going to have no clue how to play the hand.

Depending on the stakes this is at you are also probably going to get reraised by a FD. But in a 3 way pot the odds of somebody being on a FD isn't that high so folding to a reraise is necessary without any reads as you are then playing for stacks.
 
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Bentheman87

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Why do you have to bet, because of the flush draw? It's possible no one has a flush draw, I'd check call the flop. A great sequence would be it checks around. On the turn we check and someone bets small, we call, then we check call on the river to lose to trip Jacks, but we would have lossed the minimum.
 
Melkor

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Why do you have to bet, because of the flush draw? It's possible no one has a flush draw, I'd check call the flop. A great sequence would be it checks around. On the turn we check and someone bets small, we call, then we check call on the river to lose to trip Jacks, but we would have lossed the minimum.

Its possible nobody has a jack.
 
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