AA early in 18man

[arkadiy]

I was thinking about the draws he might have on the turn, and a pot size bet would leave me with nothing for the river so analyze for me please cause I did not know exactly what to do here.

pokerstars Game #18545194595: Tournament #94263347, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2008/07/03 - 00:22:43 (ET)
Table '94263347 2' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: slipskid3812 (1460 in chips)
Seat 2: roberto2004 (1450 in chips)
Seat 3: ou1gman (1380 in chips)
Seat 4: jenice111 (1470 in chips)
Seat 5: Arkadiy (1430 in chips)
Seat 6: matt7282a (1510 in chips)
Seat 7: Bellzz77's (1500 in chips)
Seat 8: RollTideRoll (1500 in chips)
Seat 9: killeralways (1800 in chips)
matt7282a: posts small blind 10
Bellzz77's: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Arkadiy [Ah Ac]
RollTideRoll: folds
killeralways: folds
slipskid3812: calls 20
roberto2004: calls 20
ou1gman: folds
jenice111: calls 20
Arkadiy: raises 80 to 100
matt7282a: folds
Bellzz77's: folds
slipskid3812: calls 80
roberto2004: folds
jenice111: folds
*** FLOP *** [Kc Qs 6s]
slipskid3812: checks
Arkadiy: bets 250
slipskid3812: calls 250
*** TURN *** [Kc Qs 6s] [9c]
slipskid3812: checks
Arkadiy: bets 1080 and is all-in
slipskid3812: folds
Uncalled bet (1080) returned to Arkadiy
Arkadiy collected 770 from pot
Arkadiy: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 770 | Rake 0
Board [Kc Qs 6s 9c]
Seat 1: slipskid3812 folded on the Turn
Seat 2: roberto2004 folded before Flop
Seat 3: ou1gman folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: jenice111 folded before Flop
Seat 5: Arkadiy (button) collected (770)
Seat 6: matt7282a (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: Bellzz77's (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: RollTideRoll folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: killeralways folded before Flop (didn't bet)

 

[arkadiy]

Just from re-reading this myself, I think my flop raise should've been more of around 120 / 140 and my flop bet should've been around 300.

Not sure if I would've changed the turn shove.

 

[vanquish]

i like an underbet on turn so you can induce a shove from like KJ but otherwise the board sux so you're really only shoving to protect equity which sux as well. i guess i bet like 1/5 pot and then check/call river or something

 

[arkadiy]

Ya the board scared me, flush draw / straight draw / 2 pair opportunities.

Thanks for the advice

 

[vanquish]

the thing is underbetting turn in theory gives odds to draws but it also taxes them, which owns because they only hit 1 in 4 or w/e, but you win all those chips whenever they don't hit (assuming you call and win their shit when they bluff you on river)

 

[arkadiy]

Umm the third card wasn't a spade (not sure why CC is making it a spade...)

So I was kind of maybe putting him on a Q with maybe a flush draw.

 

[vanquish]

right, i know, but i'm saying, even if you bet and give him the 4:1 he wants on the FD, you still win most of the time, so giving him odds to draw doesn't suck as bad

 

[arkadiy]

So what do you think I should be betting this turn? 300ish?

 

[vanquish]

i might bet like 425. (call shove obv, even though calling shoves sucks)
this is pretty unorthodox though, so take it with a grain of salt.

 

[viking999]

I take a different perspective. I think either bet big or check on the turn is best. Getting a flush draw to fold is always better than giving him odds to call.

--------------------

For example:

On the turn, your opponent has 9 outs (just a flush draw). The pot is 1000.

If you bet 333 (which is giving him just better than 4:1 to call):

EV = 0.8 * 1333 - 0.2 * 333 = 999.8

If you bet 1000 all-in and he folds:

EV = 1 * 1000 = 1000

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If you can manage to give him worse odds and he still calls, then that is better than getting him to fold as long as you don't pay him off enough if he hits. That's going to be kind of tricky with a hand as strong as AA, so I like a strong near pot sized bet if you decide to bet. All-in might be a bit much. I'd like to get paid off by weaker kings and hands like Qx of clubs or the bare spade flush draw. They're going to be tempted to call, but you're not really giving them the right implied odds to do so.

I think a check could be good for pot control. You could easily be beat here, but almost any bet is committing. Sometimes you get sucked out on, but if you can make the right read on the river, then I think a turn check sometimes makes sense.

 

[Steveg1976]

He has ackward stack size by the turn point. A shove is a little too big but a smaller bet is just pot commiting anyway. I think the shove was fine in this spot.