End of a SnG, HU hand

[ChuckTs]

Down to heads-up, I had played my normal tight early, loose late game.
Heads-up, I was dominating him with a 3:1 chip lead, and basically bullying him out of anything I though he would fold. He was a pretty tight/passive player, but he noticed this pretty soon, and I could tell he was getting fed up and was soon to take a stand with a hand. He did it preflop a few times after one or two of my many PF raises, he would just overbet the pot and push all in to push me out.

Several hands he would limp the button, I'd check with a marginal hand, hit a rag or part of my hand and bet it. I think he took these as steals too because, well look at the HH; he was obviously fed up .

So you've got a straight draw, an overcard, and a huge chance that your opponent has a pretty weak hand. His bet timing indicated weakness to me, and I put him on either a very weak 7, or a middle or bottom pair. Possibly even an underpair.
I counted 11 possible outs for myself

So what do you do here?

pokerstars GAME #5538128713: TOURNAMENT #27995736, $35+$3 HOLD'EM NO LIMIT - LEVEL V (75/150) - 2006/07/12 - 18:25:59 (ET)
Table '27995736 1' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: ChuckTs (6460 in chips)
Seat 4: wizardv (2540 in chips)
wizardv: posts small blind 75
ChuckTs: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ChuckTs [Jd 5s]
wizardv: calls 75
ChuckTs: checks
*** FLOP *** [4c 7s 6s]
ChuckTs: bets 200
wizardv: raises 2190 to 2390 and is all-in
ChuckTs: .....

 

[t1riel]

Fold. Your opponent could have anything. He could have 5, 8 or even 6, 7 which would explain the limp in. This opponent seems to be a tight player from what you're describing. Beat him on another hand. Chasing straights are a killer in Heads Up.

 

[Schatzdog]

You're 11 outs give you ~44% to hit. If you think he's capable of pushing on a flush draw then your down to 8 outs or ~32%. With such a commanding chip lead I'd wait for a better opportunity to finish him.

 

[don8ions]

That's a bad tell in an online poker game to go all in with rags on the board. He called your raise pre-flop so i'd put him either on 2 overs or a pocket pair. He probably has the same amount of outs as you do so it's a coin flip. In heads up I take the chance and call him.

 

[twizzybop]

I'd put him on a pair of 6's or a flush draw, cause some people will bet against thier own flush draw.

 

[gord962]

I call. You will still have almost $4k in chips if you don't hit. I think it's a bluff or semi-bluff as he is small stack and trying to build up his stack. If he had the nuts he wouldn't have pushed.
Just to be safe though, pray for the 3, not the 8! lol

 

[ChuckTs]

I'm gonna wait a little more until I post the results; we're getting some nice responses here - mixed opinions

 

[JAMILE1]

I'd say call, 11 outs ( I think I counted right ) and I would say maybe he get A7 maybe A6 though I think he paired something on the board? but I would call I like the straights possibility.

 

[Effexor]

I'd call, you have enough chips to take the risk.

 

[Bombjack]

With 11 outs you're still an underdog to win the pot (assuming he had something - people don't *usually* push in heads-up with absolutely nothing). So you might finish him off but you'll probably give him chip parity. Up to you if that's a risk you want to take. I'd fold and wait for a better opportunity.

Folding might also encourage him to push when you have a better position.

 

[medeiros13]

This is a call. You have to put in 2190 to win a pot of 5080, that comes out to a 43% addition from your current stack. (2190/5080) You have 11 outs which comes out to 44% using 4/2...pot odds say call if you play strictly on mathematics

 

[blankoblanco]

But that 44% outs doesn't cover if the other guy has a pair as well as a straight draw, high card as well as a straight draw, or a flush draw with a high card or pair. If he's leading and has a flush draw, it brings your outs down significantly. Hell, he could have anything. He could even have the straight already.

If you're dominating him, I don't see the reason to give him pretty much even odds to take the lead in the match. I fold this one and wait for something better, remaining confident that I'm in control of the match.

 

[joosebuck]

people don't *usually* push in heads-up with absolutely nothing

people push heads up with nothing often..

 

[ChuckTs]

If he's leading and has a flush draw, it brings your outs down significantly. Hell, he could have anything. He could even have the straight already.

The way I read him on previous hands, he'd be the type to push immediately in this situation with a flush draw, and he would definitely slowplay the made straight. He had done this allin overbet several times before basically because he couldn't handle playing against me the whole hand through. I was 95% confident (don't ask me how, it was just based on the way he played it and on my reads of him) that he had a pair from the board, and a weak kicker.

Anyways, here are the results. Thanks for all the input guys; this was a pretty marginal situation, and I wasn't sure what everyone else would think of the play.

*** FLOP *** [4c 7s 6s]
ChuckTs: bets 200
wizardv: raises 2190 to 2390 and is all-in
ChuckTs: calls 2190
ChuckTs said, "11 outs...ill gamble"
wizardv said, "haha"
*** TURN *** [4c 7s 6s] [3h]
*** RIVER *** [4c 7s 6s 3h] [6h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
ChuckTs: shows [Jd 5s] (a straight, Three to Seven)
wizardv: shows [6d Td] (three of a kind, Sixes)
wizardv said, "nice hit"
ChuckTs collected 5080 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 5080 | Rake 0
Board [4c 7s 6s 3h 6h]
Seat 1: ChuckTs (big blind) showed [Jd 5s] and won (5080) with a straight, Three to Seven
Seat 4: wizardv (button) (small blind) showed [6d Td] and lost with three of a kind, Sixes


The biggest thing I find wrong with my call was this; I was thinking during the hand, that "I might aswell gamble and see if I can win this right here" looking at how many outs I had. The thing was that I really didn't need to gamble; I was dominating him and could have easily outplayed him. I think that maybe considering the circumstances I was in, folding might have been a better play, but I don't see calling as a terrible option one either.

 

[medeiros13]

The biggest thing I find wrong with my call was this; I was thinking during the hand, that "I might aswell gamble and see if I can win this right here" looking at how many outs I had. The thing was that I really didn't need to gamble; I was dominating him and could have easily outplayed him. I think that maybe considering the circumstances I was in, folding might have been a better play, but I don't see calling as a terrible option one either.

You could also look at it as why not gamble with him? If you somehow lose the hand, you're confident you can outplay him and get the chip lead back again.

It looks like your read on him was pretty dead on. Seeing the hand history, you can see you were frustrating him and he was trying to take down a quick pot with a marginal middle pair and flush/straight threat. I still think you made the right decision even though you seem to be questioning it a bit.

 

[blankoblanco]

You could also look at it as why not gamble with him? If you somehow lose the hand, you're confident you can outplay him and get the chip lead back again.

This is a valid point, but Chuck described the guy as getting pretty fed up. Even though I'm pretty sure Chuck could have outplayed him either way, if he loses this hand and gives the guy the lead, that might free him up to change his style around as well as getting rid of the frustration. I just thing a good part of the edge you can have on someone is when they're frustrated. If the 44% doesn't go Chuck's way, that edge could be lost.

But I'll also say that I wasn't in the game and it's hard to argue with the reads of someone who was there, especially since they ended up being correct.

Really I think Chuck would have won whether he folded or not. Personally, my preference is to fold there, maybe more for the psychological reasons I described, although it's surely a close call.

 

[F Paulsson]

I counted 11 possible outs for myself

No way all your outs are clean. You need every single one of your outs to be able to pull off a call here, and I don't think you can count on having that. Also, be less inclined to call thin like this when the outs you have aren't to the nuts (which none of them are).

So what do you do here?

Because of this, I fold.

 

[ChuckTs]

Thanks for the input everyone; I was really curious what people thought of this hand because it was a pretty damn marginal situation. Kudos