Is this a call ?

[BelgoSuisse]

$6+.50 turbo on Full Tilt. Playing KK aggressively but meeting resistance. Big board with A and monocolor diamond.

Do I call villain's shove considering I have Kd ?

Stacks:
* MP2 with 2185
* CO with 2690
* BTN with 1575
* SB with 3000
* BB with 890
* UTG with 1350
* MP1 with 1810

Blinds:
Site: full tilt poker
* * Dealt to CO:K♥ K♦
* * Sklansky group 1
Preflop:
* * 2 players fold.
* * MP2 raises to 300
* * Hero raises to 800
* * 3 players fold.
* * MP2 calls [500]
* * Total folds this street: 5
* * Potsize: 1750
Flop:
* * A♦ Q♦ 8♦
* * MP2 bets [1,385, and is all in]

https://www.cardschat.com

 

[THe Slob]

How has the villain been playing, LAG, TAG, is he a rock?

 

[BelgoSuisse]

How has the villain been playing, LAG, TAG, is he a rock?

Only 20 hands played so far. He's won 4 of them. Shown his cards twice: A8s and A6o.

A6 hand was against me in the blinds. we checked to the river on a KJT88 board and split with my A7.

On the A8 hand he was a bit of a maniac: he raised to 600 UTG with blinds 30/60 and was called all in by short stacked BB with QT.

Only other noticeable hand he raised from the button, got called, then won the hand by c-betting an Axx flop.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

How has the villain been playing, LAG, TAG, is he a rock?

One more thing (which I hadn't checked at the time). Villain knows his game. He has +26% ROI for $6+.50 turbo SNGs on sharkscope.

 

[landy011350]

i call. nut flush draw, obviously. 13 outs = 52% chance hand improves

 

[THe Slob]

Honestly, I don't know what I'd do. It's a weird push. My first instinct is he has an Ace rag and he doesn't want a flush draw to have the odds to call. Then again it's the kind of flop I've seen people push, representing a made flush, knowing you can't call without one yourself.

Even if he's pushing two pair, still think it's ace rag, you have 9 outs to the nut flush and two kings left. If you call and hit you've got a huge lead. Guess it comes down to weather you feel like gambling or not.

 

[vanquish]

fine to stack off here iyam

 

[BelgoSuisse]

i call. nut flush draw, obviously. 13 outs = 52% chance hand improves

How do you get to 13 outs?

Against a made flush I got 7 remaining diamonds for the nut flush draw and i'd be a huge underdog, but that does'nt really fit with his betting.

Against ace rag, I got 9 diamonds and 2 kings to save me, so 11 outs and I'm 44% to win this.

Finally, against AK, AQ, QQ, (AA would have shoved preflop), I have only +- 10 outs either because there's one less K or because he has outs to redraw for full house. That's 40% to win.

From his betting, I would tend to believe AK, AQ or QQ are most likely, A rag is possible. So I expect to be 40/60 underdog.

Given pot odds, I think a call is a clearly +cEV. Folding leaves me 1890 chips. By calling I expect .40 * 5025 + .60 * 505 = 2313.

It's a lot less obvious in terms of $EV. I would say it's a marginally in favor of a call, but nothing decisive. I did call because I enjoy playing the big stack a lot. Here's how it turned out:


Hero has requested TIME
Hero calls [1,385]
MP2 shows :
Q♣ A♣ Hero shows :
K♥ K♦
Turn:
K♠
River:
7♦
MP2 shows two pair, Aces and Queens
Hero shows a flush, Ace high Hero wins the pot (4,520) with a flush, Ace high


Turns out I got both the king and the diamond I was looking for.