99s

[jewboy07]

Full Tilt Poker Game #5752177017: $2,500 Guarantee (Rebuy) (43069400), Table 23 - 300/600 Ante 75 - No Limit Hold'em - 15:00:51 ET - 2008/03/23

about 100 people left and top 45 payed
oppenent is nothing out of the ordinary and had been at the table a short time




Stacks:
MP1 with 8605
MP2 with 21176
CO with 18970
BTN with 9317
SB with 37370
BB with 33520
UTG with 11570

Blinds:
Site: full tilt poker
Dealt to CO:9♠ 9♣
Sklansky group 3
Preflop:
1 players fold.
UTG raises to 1,575
2 players fold.
Hero calls [1,575]
3 players folded.
Total folds this street: 6
Potsize: 4050
Flop:
4♠ 3♠ 5♣
UTG bets [3,544]

what should I be looking to do here?

 

[danman7373]

UTGs raise is suspiciously small, only about 2.5x BB. While this could easily be a speculative hand like JT suited, it could also be any pair tens or higher. Even if you do have him beat, he still could have an excellent drawing hand, plus he's already committed almost 50% of his stack on this hand, so he's probably calling your raise, whether he has you beat or not. I'd fold here and look for a stronger spot to get my chips in, since you still have a comfortable amount of chips at this stage of the tournament.

 

[Bentheman87]

I'd call here and if a good turn comes, like the jack or hearts, be ready to move in. If an ace, deuce, king, or queen comes on the turn you're probably beat.

 

[OzExorcist]

Thinking about the opponent's range, you're behind bigger pocket pairs, sets and A2 (and 67... though that's less likely given the pre-flop action from what we're assuming is a standard player - I'm writing off 2-6 on similar grounds). A big combo draw (or say, AQ-spades) is probably better than 50% on you at the moment too.

Those hands are all possible, depending on the player.

We're ahead of smaller pocket pairs that haven't hit a set, AK/AQ type hands, straight / flush draws and A-rag hands that have paired their kicker - all also possible, depending on the player. Flush draw hands are likely to have overcards to your nines as well.

Meanwhile, you've just called a pre-flop raise, which could also mean suited cards, or a low pair that's hit a set, or a medium pair that hasn't. It'll be hard to sell AA/KK/QQ here, as you'd likely have re-raised before the flop.

I hate flat calling this because there's just so many cards that we don't want to see on the turn - any spade, any card ten or up, even a two. And folding seems weak given that we're ahead of a lot of villain's range.

So - maybe I'm in a reckless mood today, but does anyone else think this calls for a raise to about 10K?

We'd be representing either a set or exactly what we have (a medium overpair), and I think draws make up a big enough part of the villain's range that they'd have trouble calling us.

If this is a bigger pair, set or a made straight then we've still got chips behind, and we're only a 55-45 or 60-40 dog if it's a big combo draw or overcard flush draw.

 

[Fermion5]

I want to reiterate some of the comments already made and add some of my own comments. I assume you are out of the rebuy period as this makes a big difference.

UTGs raise is suspiciously small, only about 2.5x BB.

This is pretty important imo. Especially since there's a 75 ante as well. I raise in this spot everytime simply to isolate. It represents a lot of strength on your part and you get a lot of info for a relatively cheap price since the stack to blind ratio is still quite large. I really dislike a flat way call as someone in the blinds often calls and 99 is really difficult to play multiway.

I hate flat calling this because there's just so many cards that we don't want to see on the turn - any spade, any card ten or up, even a two. And folding seems weak given that we're ahead of a lot of villain's range.

This is real important to take into account on the flop. Since he lead out pot, it puts you in a tough spot.

I think most of the time you should fold and the other times you should raise pot and commit yourself. His cbet range is probably huge: As, Ks, Qs, any overpair to 99. It's all about if you think he will cbet with weaker hands such as two overcards and no flush draw. If he is playing somewhat straightforward (raising AJ+, 66+ UTG; cbetting the hands i mentioned above) then you are likely 50/50 at best on that flop if he cbets. This is because, as I just mentioned, if he cbets then he likely has either an overpair with or without flush draw or two overcards with flush draw.

If the flop didn't give a gutshot to someone with an Ace or it wasn't three spades in a row like that, I would be more inclined to raise.

 

[ABorges]

Flop wasn't 3 spades, look again... flush is not possible at this moment. I agree with everything Exorcist said. You called with 99 preflop, there aren't many flops that will come better than this one with 3 undercards, even if it's so connected. As played, I probably raise. Doesn't matter to how much, if he's going to call he'll call any raise.

 

[jewboy07]

wow

well i posted this awhile back so it seems ive lost the rest of the HH

but i was thinking like Oz and did indeed raise to about 10k which put him all in and he called with jacks

still left me with 7k behind

i guess i just wanted reassurance that many times this is an easy push

 

[OzExorcist]

I wouldn't say it was an easy push... but I think (unless I had some read that said I was definitely beat) it's probably what I'd do here.

Better luck next time with the result!