99 UTG. Too aggressive ?

[BelgoSuisse]

M is about 9, so I can't play 99 for set value and I choose to raise it UTG. This is a flop I need to shove, isn't it ?

full tilt poker Game #6054050924: $33 + $3 Sit & Go (Turbo) (46086912), Table 1 - 60/120 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:18:21 ET - 2008/04/16
Seat 1: buffbuhr (2,505)
Seat 2: BelgoSuisse (1,590)
Seat 3: akworldwide (1,105)
Seat 4: littlebigfat (1,810)
Seat 5: irishms (1,550)
Seat 7: Ring27 (1,080)
Seat 8: MrsSmokey1 (1,715)
Seat 9: Team Springer (2,145)
Team Springer posts the small blind of 60
buffbuhr posts the big blind of 120
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BelgoSuisse [9d 9c]
BelgoSuisse raises to 360
akworldwide calls 360
littlebigfat folds
irishms folds
Ring27 folds
MrsSmokey1 folds
Team Springer folds
buffbuhr folds
*** FLOP *** [3d 4s Jd]
BelgoSuisse bets 1,230, and is all in

 

[ChuckTs]

I hate to reduce my answers to STT threads to the results of a program, but ICM calculators are pretty much always right when it comes to STTs and short-stacked situations.

I understand youplay a lot of STTs, Belgo - you should go pick one up. SnGWiz is a little expensive at like $100 but with you playing the $33s I think it's well worth your money.

I'm not sure exactly what the 'answer' to this hand is, but I'm pretty sure you should be open-folding it utg. Unless the table's extremely tight it's basically a spot where you should fold - it's essentially an utg steal as no one really gets involved without a range that beats your 9s. As played preflop - which I still think is an open fold - I think shoving the flop is fine. You're committed, any c-bet further commits you, and you want to take it down now.

I'm like half-asleep so take my response with a grain of salt.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

Open fold? Wow, I was wondering if I should limp, raise or shove and you tell me to fold... Well, it does make sense because none of the above felt really right, but folding 99 really feels a bit weak.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

I understand youplay a lot of STTs, Belgo - you should go pick one up. SnGWiz is a little expensive at like $100 but with you playing the $33s I think it's well worth your money.

I see there's a 30 days free evaluation period for SnGWiz, so I guess I'll give it a try tonight. Thanks for the advice.

 

[OzExorcist]

FWIW I'd seriously consider open folding too. I wouldn't be happy about it, but I'd have to seriously consider it.

Really depends on reads and the table for me. Some tables you can make a 3BB raise in this spot and expect everyone to fold. Against a tough table though, I think it's often just too hard to play this hand profitably from this position.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

What about open shoving? There's only something like 15% chances that there is TT+ at the table and that I'm called by a hand that dominates me.

 

[CfPoker]

I think a shove here is a tad excessive. You're risking your 1600 to win the 180 in the pot. Given the 15% chance you mention of being called by TT+ then this is a marginal situation at best. You may also be called by overcards, putting you in a slightly favourable coinflip situation, unless you get a couple of callers which may put you behind.

As you say, it might feel weak, but I'm probably folding this hand.

 

[Bentheman87]

To those saying fold preflop this is probably the best hand he'll get for the rest of the sng if you're M is 9. Raise 3x BB preflop, on the flop though a shove is a bit excessive. Just bet 2/3 pot or so.

 

[ChuckTs]

It's not about the hands, ben, it's about the situations. You should be much happier to shove for ex K9o on the button than to shove 99 here.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

To those saying fold preflop this is probably the best hand he'll get for the rest of the sng if you're M is 9. Raise 3x BB preflop, on the flop though a shove is a bit excessive. Just bet 2/3 pot or so.

the pot is 900 and I have 1230 left. Do you really advise that I should bet half my remaining stack and fold to a shove?

 

[Bentheman87]

UTG 99+ are usually raising hands, even early in the sng with a big M, now it's late with a smaller M so you have to loosen up, and the chance of a player having a bigger pair behind you is small.

 

[feitr]

I actually don't know if shoving is excessive. Shoving after the flop is hardly better than shoving preflop, because you are only going to get called on the flop if he has an over pair or a J and has you beat. And by raising 3xBB you pretty much are pot committed if you get a caller. I can see shoving if the flop comes overcards, but it seems like you were planning on shoving any flop other than A Q K or something.

Folding is also a realistic option...as said before you'd be better off shoving semi-trash from the button than a good hand from UTG oftentimes.

I never really think that having to call off 1/4 your stack in a preflop raise is a good idea...

 

[Bentheman87]

"the pot is 900 and I have 1230 left. Do you really advise that I should bet half my remaining stack and fold to a shove?"

My fault I thought the pot was only 720 and you had more left behind. In this case yeah I think shoving 1230 to win 900 is fine.

 

[bob_tiger]

It's not about the hands, ben, it's about the situations. You should be much happier to shove for ex K9o on the button than to shove 99 here.

I believe this is a turbo sng, so I def agree with chuck on this, I obviously dont play at this level because my br cant support it yet but I mean the structure and how people play is pretty close, You will obviously see more loose players at the lower limits but in these sngs i feel like table image and position=Winning.

 

[Bentheman87]

Just think of this guys. The chance of any of the 8 remaining players having 10 10 or higher is only 18%, that's not a big percent.

Poker probability (Texas hold 'em) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Of course one of them might have AK - AJ and decide to call or raise you, but here you're 50% to win, and when your M starts to get in the orange zone you should be willing to race in all in coinflips.

Normally my strategy for utg early in a tournament or sng is limp with 66-88, raise with 99+, and fold 55-22. Here it's middle late, so you should loosen up and start raising utg with probably the 8s and 7s as well.

 

[feitr]

I still think that from UTG shoving > raising in this situation.

If somebody has TT+, you are getting reraised (or you'll get called and lose it all after the flop) and in that situation you probably aren't going to lay it down but shove. If sombody calls, you are basically pot committed, and since you are OOP, once you make your c-bet you are completely pot committed. If the flop comes AKJ what are you going to do? etc etc

I can't see how you can raise 1/4 your stack into this pot and get away from it so you should just shove preflop imo (or fold...but you aren't likely to get a better hand in a turbo before you are forced to shove with T9 or something).

And I'm sure he probably has an overpair or something for you to be posting this, but the only way you would ever get out of that situation is to simply open fold. If you put any money into this pot with 99 i believe you are going to have to see it to the end in the majority of cases.

 

[OzExorcist]

My problem with open-shoving this hand is in the risk vs reward equation.

If we get called, we're likely to be a coinflip at best. So we're not gonna be real happy if we get called. Which means we're actually shoving this in the hope of winning the blinds, and they only make up a small portion of our stack.

I'd me much more inclined to either wait a few hands until I've got position and then try to steal my blinds back, or try to get my money in when I think I'm in a more 60-40 situation.

If you're in a gambling mood and you're happy getting your money in the pot against a range that you're likely a dog against then by all means shove. But I think Chuck said it best, there'll likely be better situations in which to get our money in.

 

[Jack494]

What an amazing story. Belgosuisse, you're from switerland?

 

[ChuckTs]

Just think of this guys. The chance of any of the 8 remaining players having 10 10 or higher is only 18%, that's not a big percent.

Poker probability (Texas hold 'em) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Of course one of them might have AK - AJ and decide to call or raise you, but here you're 50% to win, and when your M starts to get in the orange zone you should be willing to race in all in coinflips.

Normally my strategy for utg early in a tournament or sng is limp with 66-88, raise with 99+, and fold 55-22. Here it's middle late, so you should loosen up and start raising utg with probably the 8s and 7s as well.

With all due respect Ben, you're just spitting out numbers that sound good, but are only part of the big picture. The solution to this hand (and all low-M STT hands) lies in an expected value calculation that factors in the payout structure in the calculation. If this were cash, we could look at it strictly from an EV point (no payout structure), but it's not, so we have to use ICM. The independent chip model is what we would use here to determine whether or not a shove is +EV in the long-run.

I have an ICM calculator right here in front of me, and it says that unless there's some freak situation (exactly everyone but the blinds having a calling range of <%5 and the blinds having a calling range of >%16), pushing is very very clearly -EV.

The only argument I can think of for playing this hand would be either if the conditions of the table matched the above example exactly, or if OP had thousands of hands on every single person in the game, knew they were all extremely tight, and so we could take a shot at raising 2.5x or so to steal the blinds.

 

[feitr]

How does an ICM calculator allow for shoving tho? Surely it is fine for somebody to have a VPIP of 20 but have a "call a shove VPIP" that is FAR lower.

If you look @ chip stacks, there is nobody on the table that can call a shove and not be completely crippled (largest stack would have 1k left) so i would think that the calling range would be very tight indeed. Seems to me the blinds risking going out of the tournament to simply defend their blinds shouldn't be anywhere near as high as 16%. It isn't like you get any sort of odds at all to call 1500 when you have 120 invested.

While i don't think shoving is ideal at all (because you are risking alot just to pick up the blinds), i don't think that open raising is a good idea either because it just puts you in a HORRIBLE position after the flop if you get a caller. But it is a hard hand to fold.

 

[ChuckTs]

How does an ICM calculator allow for shoving tho?

What?

If you look @ chip stacks, there is nobody on the table that can call a shove and not be completely crippled (largest stack would have 1k left) so i would think that the calling range would be very tight indeed. Seems to me the blinds risking going out of the tournament to simply defend their blinds shouldn't be anywhere near as high as 16%. It isn't like you get any sort of odds at all to call 1500 when you have 120 invested.

Then we can't shove.

 

[feitr]

Sure having the big stack in the BB makes it a worse decision but seroiusly what the hell do you think the blinds are calling with? If the BB calls and loses he is @ >1k chips. If the SB calls and loses he is absolutely f'ed.

Calling off another 1470 chips when you have 180 dead money in the pot is not any odds at all. AQ/AJ are AT ABSOLUTE BEST a coin flip to win and completely dominated if vs AK. AK is at best a coin flip vs anything he will shove from UTG. So basically TT+ (and probably AK for BB). I'm not sure how that stacks up in terms of % for the blinds calling, but i still fail to see why the odds of the blinds calling is much more than the rest of the table when they only have 60 and 120 invested and have to call off 1500, which is almost all of their stack.

If the blinds were 200/100 and the BB had 3k chips, then sure i can totally see where you are coming from. But i cannot see why you think the big stacked BB is going to risk being the shortest stack on the table when he has only 120 invested and has to call off almost 1500 more...

Besides, the 2nd one you show has it almost exactly 50:50 equity (0.93% advantage is nothing).

Again, I'm not even trying to argue for shoving in this situation, as folding is certainly a reasonable option, i was simply arguing that if you are going to open raise then basically blind shoving the flop you might as well shove preflop.

What hand range does 9% call represent Chuck? I would have thought a range like AJs+ KQs TT+ is only like 5% or so of the hands you'll get, and i would consider even that super loose to be calling so much of your stack off.

 

[ChuckTs]

My point was that the blinds needed to call at least %16, or whatever sngwiz says, of the time. We're both arguing for the same side here :/

Get pokerstove(.com) for hand ranges - the top %9 of hands is 88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo, the top %5 being 99+,AJs+,KQs,AKo.

 

[Bentheman87]

Here's how I would rate the plays, raising 2.5-3bb > limping > folding > shoving. His M is about 8.5, and shoving preflop isn't necessary until your M drops to 5 or lower so the people saying the risk vs reward for shoving isn't worth it are correct. It's possible to raise 3x BB and fold to a shove, you'll still have 1200 chips left and an M of 7.

In HoH Volume 2 I remember there was a part where Harrington has 88 (maybe it was 99, not quite sure) utg with an M in the orange zone, between 5 and 10 just like OP, and there's a great discussion on the best play. If I remember correctly he said folding is not unreasonable in an akward situation where playing the hand almost commits you, but he recommended raising 4x BB and calling a shove. I don't have the book in front of me and it's been a while since I read it so that might not be 100% accurate.

 

[feitr]

Ok guess i misinterpreted what you said chuck.

Ben i tend to disagree. You are OOP. If you get a caller (raising from UTG so very likely you will get a caller) how do you play the flop? There is alot of money in there, so you either bet off 1/3 your stack (and are now committed) or what? check/fold? what other play is there? Unless everybody folds, once you make your cbet you are basically pot commited anyways. Limping is pathetic because then you are basically playing for set value only, which isn't worth it with blinds that size.