99 on button post flop play from villians perspective

[Shandy]

The following is played from villians perspective, do you call the turn, fairly early, first hand 222shay has been involved in. What range do you put 222shay on, plan for river if call?

pokerstars Game #14440415689: Tournament #72648538, $50+$5 Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2008/01/09 - 17:24:36 (ET)
Table '72648538 20' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: bialyboy (4410 in chips)
Seat 2: xsworxfishx (2150 in chips)
Seat 3: casimir94 (2895 in chips)
Seat 4: blackhorse88 (2680 in chips)
Seat 5: 222shay222 (2960 in chips)
Seat 6: marquitos74 (2740 in chips)
Seat 7: DADOO22 (1895 in chips)
Seat 8: otto (2995 in chips)
Seat 9: ritchie1961 (4275 in chips)
222shay222: posts small blind 15
marquitos74: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to blackhorse88 [9s 9d]
DADOO22: folds
otto: folds
ritchie1961: folds
bialyboy: folds
xsworxfishx: folds
casimir94: folds
blackhorse88: raises 60 to 90
222shay222: calls 75
marquitos74: folds
*** FLOP *** [5c Ad Kc]
222shay222: checks
blackhorse88: bets 120
222shay222: calls 120
*** TURN *** [5c Ad Kc] [7h]
222shay222: bets 210
blackhorse88:?????????

 

[Chevren]

Well hmm, what was "villians" likely image to 222shay222 that might help to narrow down a hand a bit, has he been stealing alot and shay wants to make a stand here? Has he been playing tight and shay is likely to give him some respect for a hand?

As of now the range is pretty big he defended his small blind from a positional raise and check called a drawy board. Maybe a combo draw, flush draw or weak A. Nothing really fits as strong enough to check call and lead a blank turn the board has too many possibilities on that flop to afford to give blackhorse a free look at the turn if he checks behind.

AA KK and AK are reraising preflop and maybe AQ as well, 55 is a possiblity but the check on the flop wouldnt make much sense, I am really leaning towards a draw or a weakish Ace AT or smaller.

I think at this point if I was still interested I would reraise to 600-650 with the 99 to see where I am at since stacks are so deep I can still recover if he reraises and I fold.

If he flat calls the reraise and checks on a blank river I'll fire out 1/2 to 1/3 pot bet and then obviously fold to the reraise.

 

[Shandy]

Blackhorse had been fairly active, open raising a couple of times, and giving up post flop usually, or cont betting and taking down the small pot, although there had only been about 20 or so hands played, so didnt really have much of a read. Just didn't think he would be trying to steal the blinds at this level with complete rubbish.

 

[Shandy]

will post the river as i think this is the most interesting part of the hand. Do you call? Pot at start of river is 870 by my calculations. What hands in 222shays range play like this:
*** TURN *** [5c Ad Kc] [7h]
222shay222: bets 210
blackhorse88: calls 210
*** RIVER *** [5c Ad Kc 7h] [4h]
222shay222: bets 810
blackhorse88:

 

[ratmantoo]

I dont like this play at all.....

I would put him on A7, K7 or 77 from the play here so an easy fold. However with out a read on this player its not certain. A half pot bet indicates he has something (x7) and what hands would we be willing to call a 3BB raise from the small blind - A7, K7, 77 and that it beats AA.

All this is of course speculation and he could possibly have trapped on the flop, or is currently bluffing. I doubt that its a straight draw unless he has QJ and is putting pressure on you to see your reaction.

Id say fold or reraise. A call doesnt get you any information.

OOPS - replies already. DOnt try and answer and play at the same time

 

[ratmantoo]

Now it makes even less sense... Hes bluffing or has you trapped.

 

[Chevren]

I really dont like the flat call on the turn thats a fold or raise situation for sure, and the river bet from shay seems really bluffy again it looks like he was pricing in his draw missed and decided the only way he could win was a stab.

The pot was 790 a 810 bet at the river looks like he doesn't want a call it could be a bluff with a missed draw it could be a weak A or K but I'm not seeing a really strong hand flip over right here, either way I dont think I could call this with a pair of 9s mainly because of a lack of information but I am really leaning towards some sort of missed draw QcJc or something like that

 

[baconn]

You should have reraise on the turn and check fold the river. I'm putting villian on Ax. He's trapping you not bluffing.

 

[Chevren]

If he really is strong its not really a "trap" its just terribly played he is allowing cheap draws on a flushing and straightening board, the only thing aside from the weak A or missed draw is a very poorly played AA

 

[ratmantoo]

how about AK? Either way I agree badly played

 

[Chevren]

I guess it could be AK if 222shay222 is pretty passive, but I would think AA KK AK are all reraising this preflop and why check call the flop?

You are playing against a player that has been know to C-bet often and back off so I guess you could go for the check raise but a check call on such a drawy board just doesnt seem to fit here with a good hand.

 

[alan1983]

Id fold flop, fold turn, fold river.

Im almost only beating bluffs, on a very dangerous board.

Itd take some crazy read that involves me peeking to opponents computer to make this call.

Edit: i just noticed he lead the flop and u check called. That couldve confused him i guess, maybe he thought u had some kind of draw. But im not putting so much at stake here. Still a fold for me.

 

[Shandy]

blackhorse88: calls 810
*** SHOW DOWN ***
222shay222: shows [Ks Ah] (two pair, Aces and Kings)
blackhorse88: mucks hand


Well in this hand, as stated i am 222shay222, and as some of you have guessed AK was my hand.
I will now try to explain my thought process throughout the hand.
Preflop, i could have raised, but as stated in an earlier post, i doubt he is raising complete rubbish here, so he will more than likely call, so then i will be playing a reraised pot oop, which would be difficult if i didn't hit. Calling also helps conceal the strength of my hand, but yeah, if the blinds are bigger i am certainly reraising.
The flop is pretty much perfect for me, yes there are flush draws and gutshot str8 draws, but really what are the chances he has that specific flush draw and the gutshots only have 4 outs- so if he hits one of them- then hey unlucky me, and by check calling i look like i am on a draw myself, or a weak A, or K. And check raising only really gets value from AQ-9, and A5, he probably even gets away from A9/10 pretty easily without putting in anymore.
The turn is perfect apart from 77, this helps absolutely nothing, now by donking out 1/2 pot, i feel it looks more like i called the flop bet on a flush draw, and am now just trying to steal the pot, and he will hopefully raise any A, K or maybe even an underpair on a bluff.
The river apart from filling a backdoor str8 draw is also no worry to me. Now i could check here to try and get him to bluff any 2 cards, as my line does look alot like a busted flush draw. But at this point since he didn't raise the turn bet i think we can basically take a strong A out of his range, which is about the only thing he would value bet on the river- a lot of his hands he just checks behind, as at this point it looks like i have either the nuts or nothing, so there would be no point in him risking getting checkraised with a hand which has showdown value. A half pot bet by me probably gets called by most of his decent hands, such as 88+ any K, any A, but it does also look a little like a value bet so he may fold some hands at the bottom of that range. A pot sized bet looks a lot more like a steal, from a busted flush draw, and i feel he probably even shoves any decent A, perhaps even a K over the top of it. It also leaves him enough behind to just call with something such as the hand he had, as a bluff catcher, getting i think 2:1 on his call- and i think against a lot of randoms you really are good here ~50%, so its really not that bad of a call by him.

So really i don't agree that it was a poorly played AK, maybe if i reraise preflop, he reraises, and we get it allin as a coinflip, but the way it played i think was about as much value as i could really hope for.

The reason for posting this hand was not for a thinly veiled brag post (well- not just), its just i thought it was quite an interesting hand, and i had been looking for an opportunity for a while now to take this line with a strong hand, as i have tried this line with air before and been called down super light.

 

[Chevren]

I think you are being to results oriented, it worked in this case but you have no real info on his hand so you say "what are the chances he has that specific flush draw" who knows? Is QcJc or 7c8c in his range absolutely.

My point is you were slowplaying a pretty vulnerable hand had a 6c came on the turn whats your move? and a Tc on the river? What if it was a 9h on the river you have no idea you are up against a set of nines when he reraises you all in do you call? If you want to take this perticular line to get a call from a weaker hand try it in a better situation like AA with a A29 rainbow flop

 

[GivPeace]

in my opinion the villain should have folded on the flop, you stated that this was your first hand you had been involved in so he should have easily put you AK AQ if not KQ . If he was not going to fold he need to put a re-raise to test where you were, I am mean what was he hoping for two under cards can come out so he can call you down ( which funny because that is what happened ) he is donkey. On the note that you were slow playing I agree the check on the flop is iffy but not check raising I say is almost a big no, but then again I like how you setup the play so it would sucker him in to follow his draw to the river though I think that play should be reserved for cash games not a SNG.

 

[Shandy]

Would just like to add a few things to this post, as people all seem to me suggesting different lines to the one i took, and i'm not saying they are wrong, just that i don't necessarily agree that my line was bad.
Firstly just a little on my poker background, so that you don't think that i am trying to say "i am the greatest and you should all listen to me". I have been playing for about 18 months now, and am no where near a profitable poker player- you are all free to look up my stats- they are fairly embarrassing- so you may not want to take anything i say seriously. I feel the main reason i am not a profitable player is due to 3 factors: extremely poor bankroll management, crazy tilt and alcohol- but am slowly getting these under control- hardly ever play drunk now, and don't tilt as much as i used to, but yeah still find myself playing outside my bankroll on a number of occasions, and all these factors basically lead to me playing poor poker.

Now back to the hand in question, a lot of people are suggesting a raise preflop with AK, now this is fine, but he folds any trash (although its unlikely he has trash as its not worth stealing the blinds at this point), and calls or reraises mainly with hands i am coin flipping against- eg pocket pair <KK. The only thing that he may reraise or call with that i dominate is AQ, perhaps AJs, so basically i increase the pot and need to hit.
Now on the flop if i lead out he folds almost everything i dominate, basically everything which is drawing to 2 outs. If i checkraise, i win a slightly larger pot, but still allow him to get cheaply away from the hand, when he is drawing to between 2 (pocket pr) and 12 (gutshot flush draw or A-flushdraw) outs tops, which gives him at most a 48% of winning at the river, and possibly as low as an 8%. So really i shouldn't be thinking "how can i get hands to fold which could draw out on me", but "how can i get hands which i have crushed to put the most chips in the pot", so a check call on the flop basically does this. As now as the opponent the first thing you put your opponent on is a flush draw, or a weak A/K.
So now onto the turn, now we could go for a check/call again, but this risks him checking behind and you missing out on a street of value, and how many times have you seen a poor villian (and remember my opr stats show me as very poor), check call the flop with a flush draw then lead the turn when they don't hit as they start to panic that they mayn't hit their hand- i must see it at least once a day, so this line keeps up the appearance of the hand we are trying to represent, and will often get raised at this point. The half pot bet allows him to continue with most pair hands that he has, if he puts me on a flush draw.
Basically the river i described well enough in my previous post, i think he calls a full pot bet almost as often as he calls a half pot bet. Another way to play it would be to just donk out really small- say 200- and hope he shoves sensing weakness- but there is just to much chance he calls down with a hand with showdown value.

I feel this hand highlights a couple of things which are very important-
Firstly don't be scared of then hitting their 2-15 outers- of course this doesnt always apply- on a 9h10hJc- flop it probably wouldn't be a good idea to slowplay top 2, but on a flop which is already heads-up you should be more concern about extracting value from worse hands, when you hit it hard then you should be about forcing draws out. And yes i realise that he could already have a set and i could be drawing dead- but hey thats a cooler and you just move on.
Secondly- representing a hand which is beaten by most of villians likely holdings, a betting amounts which allows them to call with that holding. Some may say why didn't i shove the river- that looks like a total donk bluff- yes it does- but it also takes a complete donk to call it with an average holding- and i seriously don't feel that villian in this hand did too much wrong- he still had plenty of chips left at the end of the hand to play with, and it is probably a good bluff catching call a large proportion of the time.

 

[Yumboltking]

I think your reasoning is very sound. I prob don't re raise flop with ak if already 2 handed. Hate to say though, did put you on 2 pair by the turn [ i was thinking a7 suited, maybe k7 suited in blind] so my 9's are mucked there, sorry unless i'm tilting or desperate [desperate is usually pushing 99 not 3betting preflop] not getting any more chips from me. Good luck and nh.

 

[Chevren]

That is exactly the point he is anywhere between 8% and 48% to win, in this example it paid off but if you regularly slowplay when you cound be as low as a 52% favorite you will lose money you had absolutley no info on his hand and to be profitable you do not offer odds to draw. Based on how this hand actually played out I dont think he is folding to a lead on the flop and I certainly dont think he is folding to a reraise preflop.

I also think you are overestimating the value of AK the main value of AK is in fold equity preflop after that it is just a drawing hand you were just as likely to hit two pair with 72.

 

[ratmantoo]

I'll have to agree with Chevren.

Lets put it this way...change blackhorses cards to 55(or any card that makes the trips for that matter) The betting would run along similar lines but the outcome would be totally different. With black horses call to your 210 bet i would be thinking along the line of "trips????".

All in all I think it was a bit of a risky play....imagine if he had have hit trips on the river??? Sure in this case he didnt and we got a couple of extra chips of him..well done. Was it worth the risk of loosing? Maybe, but I personally dont like it. With top 2 pr and NO information on what he has in his hand, Id raise high forcing a bad play / good fold but at least if he does call and hits it is a true suckout, and not bad play on my part.

Im not saying your play was bad, just not the way I would have played it. Thats the beauty of poker, each of us plays differently and are willing to gamble on different odds.