99, 3 way pot...

[Tygran]

/prepost rant: bodog hand histories suck

ok... early at a SnG, 10 players. Relative information below:

blinds: 15/30


eternalg01 (1355) utg+1
tygran (1435) 5th position
furnace (2035) SB

Dealt to Tygran: 9c 9s

eternalg01 raises to 80
Tygran calls 80
furnace calls 60
everyone else folds

pot 290

Flop: 2c 5s 4d

furnace bets 300
eternalg01 calls 300
Tygran ????


What do you do here?

A little more relevant info, eternal has played 1 hand at this point and not aggressively, so I'm pretty sure he has at least good pocket cards. furnace is an outright donkey. Although so far to this point he's mostly just lost his fold button and keeps calling down with crap and winning (3 suckouts so far, and a couple losses). So he could have literally anything but he's going to have at least a pair if not better since he hasn't been leading out normally, but checking/calling.

I'm also thinking I should have raised this preflop?

 

[mrsnake3695]

Villan/donkey could easily have ace small here with the 2,3,4 or 5. Lose donkey love to play these hands like the nuts and if he hit one of the board cards for a pair he could think he's best as donkey rarely put players on overpairs for some reason. Eternal could have AK-AJ type of hand and not willing to give it up yet or something like 77 or 88. What you need to worry about is donkey having A-3 for the straight or eternal having 10-10 or JJ.

I think a fold is too weak and any raise puts you short stacked so this is call and see what develops on the turn or push all-in. Really depends on how you feel.

 

[Tygran]

I'm not saying what I did, but here's what I'm thinking just to elaborate more. I'm putting eternal on probably 2 high cards (AK/AQ) or possibly on a mid pair, some of which I beat (77/88) and some I don't (TT/JJ).

I'm more worried about the donkey. With him being more aggressive than usual here I'm worried that he has one of the following: A/3, 3/6, 44, 55, 22, 45, 24, 25 and that I'm essentially down to 2 outs. The way he is playing any one of these holdings is as likely as any other. It's also possible he has a 5 with a highish kicker (Q5 to A5). But those are the hands I'm thinking he most likely has. He would have raised 77+ so he doesn't have an overpair.

I realize I'm getting good odds, but I'm pretty sure about these reads. The one thing at this point I'm kicking myself for is not raising preflop to try and keep the donkey out.

So..at this point I'm thinking there's a high possiblity I'm beaten and can't drive him out with a raise. But I do have a strong hand, he is a donkey and the pot odds are good.

Anyone else?

 

[Tygran]

Maybe I should have posted this somewhere else, and this is the last "bump" I'll give it.

I think the question I'm really asking here is this. How much weight should I give to my instinct/read here? How much should I alter probabilities of certain hands in order to calculate the winning play? That's what I'm really debating here I think.

 

[beechleaf]

right now you have the best hand and since you limped in I would have shoved all in ya you could get out drawn but donkeys always chase

 

[Tygran]

Not too much interest in this one it seems, but thanks to the 2 that replied.

Here's what actually happened. I called the 300, although somewhat reluctantly as I really believed I was beat, but pot odds dictated a call here. The turn card was the Kh, which is not a good card.

donkey bets out 400 and is raised all in by eternal. I toss my hand at this point as I'm still thinking donkey has me beat and now eternal's most likely hand (AK) has me beat also.

donkey calls.

Turns out my initial analysis here was dead on right. Furnace flipped a 3/6 for the nut straight and eternal flipped AK.