$8.70 NLHE MTT Turbo: Suggestions here please TPTK facing rraise on flop.

[Figaroo2]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 27/20/6

Full Tilt, 140/280 blinds, 25 ante No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players

Sitting very comfortably here I'm actually about 9th of 300 in the Full tilt Crocodile. I've been splashing around quite a few pots.
Villain is also aggressive postflop. I've only 42 hands on him

MP3: 6,096 (21.8 bb)
CO: 7,370 (26.3 bb)
BTN: 5,595 (20 bb)
SB: 3,140 (11.2 bb)
BB: 17,401 (62.1 bb)
UTG+1: 3,055 (10.9 bb)
Hero (UTG+2): 16,826 (60.1 bb) vp37/pf26/ag6
MP1: 8,185 (29.2 bb)
MP2: 19,213 (68.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with Ad Jc
UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to 560, MP1 folds, MP2 calls 560, 5 folds

Flop: (1,765) Jd Td 5h (2 players)
Hero bets 1,120, MP2 raises to 2,722,

I'm thinking worst case he must have QKd or a set of 5s, best case any QK or even KJ, cant see him just calling pre with 10's
Do we just call and try to pick up a draw and give up if we miss or repop to see if he's serious?

 

[Arjonius]

I'm thinking worst case he must have QKd or a set of 5s, best case any QK or even KJ, cant see him just calling pre with 10's

What about AJ or JT? While less likely, it also doesn't seem inconceivable that he has something like 98s. Maybe even T9s and he's thinking you may have cbet a flop that doesn't hit your opening range especially well.

As for what to do, if you assume his range is what you said, re-pop seems preferable to calling. You're a decent favorite, plus what if you call? You won't improve very often on the turn. So, if you're going to call then check-fold whenever you don't improve, then why not fold now and save the 1600?

 

[1luckysob]

Is it out of the realm of possibility that he is being sneaky with an overpair? Not many cards can improve your hand on the turn here i think i would throw it away and look for a better spot. If we are in the same spot here with a short stack i would say just shove hoping he is bullying you, but with ur stack i think a call here is a bad idea because it doesnt give u any more info on his hand.

Another issue u have to deal with here is your image, if u have been playing agg style and splashing a lot of pots he may have recognized that and flatted ur pre flop bet with a strong overpair to trap you. Especially since he most likely knows that his image is agg as well.

Weighing all the choices i think this is a fold.

 

[hffjd2000]

Yeah, I think fold is appropriate here. Ours is just top pair and I think were drawing dead. The problem if we call and a dangerous card hits on the turn, we dont know what to do next, even if he will bluff bet.

 

[Figaroo2]

Thanks for the inputs. I hadn't considered the trap with an overpair. There are a lot of legitimate hands and draws that could raise that we are still ahead of though. I think folding to a single show of aggression is a bit premature.
What actually happened was I reraised another 5k and he just put me all in at which point I am confident im beat. It it just annoying spewing off a third of my chips without even seeing the turn card.

 

[jaworek1405]

I also thought about 3bet him on the flop to see where we are with TPTK. I agree that he can flat pre flop some hands like TT+. He raised you on the flop, because maybe he is afraid of FD or because of monster draw. But I don't see a monster draw here, because usually he should only call your 3bet with that kind of hand and see the turn and the river. So better wait for better hand than this.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

Because both players are deep stacked, and you do have TPTK vs. a known LAG type player, this is where I favor pot controlling and using my hand as a bluff catcher.

I think that to 3bet overcommits you out of position with a marginal hand in a deepstacked situation. And, it's not too expensive (relative to your stack) to call. Having the Ad is a nice little insurance policy as well.

So, if he has an overpair you've only got 2 jacks and 3 aces to improve...only 5 outs to improve...not great BUT if you catch a diamond on the turn you've got semi bluffing outs, so that's 5 real outs plus 7 semi-bluffing outs. And, it's totally possibly you've got the best hand right now, and he's on a draw. If he has a set, you're in pretty bad shape, but you do have a backdoor nut flush draw, and you can continue to pot control throughout the hand.

I think giving up right here vs. a LAG is too weak. I think 3betting is overplaying your hand. So, I'd call and re-assess on the turn. This is assuming you've got decent post flop skills and can avoid losing your whole stack with just TPTK.

p.s: vs. a rock, or nit or even ABC TAG player I'd lean toward folding this hand. It sucks that you only have 42 hands on him....but because he's so active you've learned a bit about his style already.

 

[Loonbat]

Bet less on the flop and be willing to fold on this miserable board. While we may have a best hand here, too much of the deck makes us want to cry, especially OOP. Also, it may not hurt for future hands if an aggro thinks he can push you around and get you off hands.

 

[rumsey182]

where is the HUD stats for villain i don't need yours lol

and without reads i can't fold to these odds peeling at least one street

 

[Figaroo2]

where is the HUD stats for villain i don't need yours lol

2nd line of my original entry.....? 27/20/6 in bold and capitals

In hindsight I'm with the Missjacki analysis, call and reassess after the turn. too soon to give up with the backdoors.

 

[rumsey182]

where is the HUD stats for villain i don't need yours lol

2nd line of my original entry.....? 27/20/6 in bold and capitals

In hindsight I'm with the Missjacki analysis, call and reassess after the turn. too soon to give up with the backdoors.

that is what i get posting late at night was looking by where you have yours,....

what is the sample size of these stats?

 

[trent32la]

Looks like Villain is semi-bluffing this flop with a hand like KQdd KQo or has JT TT KJ AJ T9dd.....he doesn't give you credit for that cbet.....in this case I would likely just flat the flop and take one off....you still have some "showdown value" here.....folding isn't a great option here since you have TPTK...and 3betting is pretty much overcommitting yourself....since you only have 42 hands on him its hard to get a read here.....so its best to take a turn card and see where your at in the hand....

 

[rumsey182]

Looks like Villain is semi-bluffing this flop with a hand like KQdd KQo or has JT TT KJ AJ T9dd.....he doesn't give you credit for that cbet.....in this case I would likely just flat the flop and take one off....you still have some "showdown value" here.....folding isn't a great option here since you have TPTK...and 3betting is pretty much overcommitting yourself....since you only have 42 hands on him its hard to get a read here.....so its best to take a turn card and see where your at in the hand....

so how do you know exactly what someone is doing?

also cbetting isn't fully about someone "giving you credit" or not

please avoid axioms

 

[kanselau]

folding this is out of question you have top pair , have been playing loose facing a loose player.
im going into defence mode here and flatting flop , check/calling any turn that gives me extra outs.
Six months ago I would have probably said fold.

Recently I have been playing at the aussie millions championship and had the pleasure of playing with David Gorr , Marvin Chan ( both Auussie millions champions) and Jonathan Duhamel . My observations where that these players do not fold easy. They defend their blind , float a ton of flops and were controlling the size of the pot . When they had a small hand they usually went to showdown with a small pot by calling down their opponents and when they had a monster the showdown usually resulted in a big pot.

This makes them so hard to play against , they don't give up on hands easily.

Sometimes calling is the best option and I think this hand qualifies. 3 betting is building a big pot OOP with a marginal hand , folding is weak.

 

[Figaroo2]

kanselau
Thank you, decent advice, I had noted the same sticky tendencies when I played UKIPT Cork last year. I often saw 2nd and 3rd pair getting called down by 4th or 5th pair or even ace highs on paired boards. I remember it surprising me at the time.
Reraising wasn't clever in hindsight, he has raised my decent flop cbet so he isn't going anywhere. At the time I was sure my 3bet would get me a sight of the turn but I was wrong. Shows the difficulty of being oop against good aggressive players