$70 NLHE MTT: Flop decision with small PP

[Jillychemung]

$70 live MTT, 24 players started, T40K starting stack, 3 get paid, 11 left on 2 tables, FT at 10 players

Effective stacks T72K, 6 handed, 500/2000/4000 level just started, 20 min levels

Hero is on the BTN with

BB has Hero covered by T5K, Over the last 6 months Hero has flat run over the BB, boat over boat, set over set, 2P over 2P, etc. KO'd him from at least 5 tournaments. BB is active during early stages of tournament and then tightens up. He's had a good run thru the 800/1600, 1K/2K, 1.5K/3K levels to go from T8K to current stack of T77K. BB has in the past made some pretty tight laydowns against me, some good, most bad We haven't really tangled yet this tournament.

SB has about a T45K stack

Folds around to Hero who raises to T12K (SB giving a tell that he wants to fold) - 3x is probably too big of a raise, 2x or 2.25x would probably be better.

SB folds, BB takes about 45 seconds and calls. Range for BB is probably 77-JJ, AK, AQ, AJ, KQ - if BB had QQ+ he'd have shoved.

Flop (T29K) :

BB checks, Hero ??
If I shove I'm sure BB will fold all of his pairs and 60% he folds AJ, 50% he folds AQ

Spoiler

Hero goes AI for T59.5K
BB tanks, finally says 'I just can't lay this down", calls and shows
Turn and river are bricks for Hero

 

[Dejange]

Nice hand there :top:

Isn't it rather suspicious your shove for the opponent having in mind the flop size and rather wet board? In such cases, in my online games - I am usually calling such AI's when I have a strong hand on the board, and AQ in this case is strong enough ...

 

[TonyTwoCheeks]

Common for nits to check Ax hands

I have not yet looked at the reveal.


"If I shove I'm sure BB will fold all of his pairs and 60% he folds AJ, 50% he folds AQ"

You're describing villain as nit. In that case, I would check. It's a common trait amongst nits in this spot to check flop and lead turn with their Ax hands. If he checks the turn then a shove would produce a fold in a more assured manner.

What is your c-bet %?...90-100%? What is your table image?

Just because you've stacked him in five tourneys does mean he's gonna curl up in a ball. Somewhere along the way everyone says in their head, "I've had enough of this guy!" and call.​

 

[SuzdalDEcor]

I don't quite understand where was the hero. On the position of the SB? The hero had a stack of 18 blinds? Am I right?

 

[Dejange]

I don't quite understand where was the hero. On the position of the SB? The hero had a stack of 18 blinds? Am I right?

No, Hero is on Button, 18 BB's correct :top:

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

ok, well in general I think just open shoving the 55 here is the proper play on the button with 18bb.

However, if you have found such a nitty guy that he actually will only 3bet jam on you with QQ+ and he will flop an Ace with AJ and usually fold it....then I guess we should just min raise preflop; fold to any of his 3bets, and then jam all A hi flops since he only wants to call off with AK and given the removal of 1 ace and the fact that most remaining Ax combinations are worse than AQ....we can just print.

I have to say though....I'm very suspect of your reads. I don't find people like this to actually exist. he might be very nitty in his 3b range....but he's really gonna flop an ace and fold short stacked in a tourney and not even on the bubble? that doesn't seem accurate to me.

 

[Jillychemung]

I have to say though....I'm very suspect of your reads. I don't find people like this to actually exist. he might be very nitty in his 3b range....but he's really gonna flop an ace and fold short stacked in a tourney and not even on the bubble? that doesn't seem accurate to me.

Fortunately for me, he's done just that a couple of times over the last 3 years that I've played against him.

I should have min-raised preflop and folded to any shove and in this specific case I should have just checked it down. With my opponents I stood a decent chance of chipping back up or at least getting into a flip.

 

[tmfnsanders]

Am I reading this right, this is the FT bubble? Easiest open-shove ever. It folds through probably 90-95% of the time netting 9k chips profit. Your probably only gonna be 30-35% vs his nitcalling range but the chips you win when it folds through are gonna make up for the difference and then some.

 

[SuzdalDEcor]

No, Hero is on Button, 18 BB's correct :top:

Ah, dont saw XD. Okay, it easy push. With this hand we wanna saw more folds by opponents.