$7 NLHE STT: Why playing GTO is losing you money

[fundiver199]

Want to share two hands from some 9 man SnGs, I played recently, who illustrate some typical situations, where playing "correct" GTO style poker is losing us money in typical micro or low stakes tournaments.

Hand 1 - Facing an oversized jam with AKo

CardsChat Poker Hands Converter

In this hand we were 7 left, and with 3 places paying we were still somewhat far from the money. A short stack went all-in for 2BB, BTN overjammed for 28BB, and I woke up in SB with AKo. I had him covered. I called, because I felt, it was "the correct play", he had QQ, and he won the flip. I plugged the hand into ICMizer, and sure enough I was supposed to call with AKo.

However ICMizer has BTN jamming a very wide range of hands, and in reality this is very unlikely. Its probably more something like 99+ or TT+, AK and maybe AQ. And against that more realistic range calling AKo is losing me money because of ICM.

This situation with someone piling in 28 BB over a 2BB open jam is pretty extreme, and its frankly a very bad play by him. However I think, there are lots of situations, where people dont jam nearly as wide, as they are supposed to, and then overfolding to their jams is a really good way to find edge.

This is especially true, if you have a skill edge on the remaining players, because then you can use 28BB in many other ways, that are better than calling a jam and relying solely on winning at showdown. Its the old saying "finding a better spot", and in this situation even AKo is a very solid fold against, what BTN is most likely actually jamming.

Hand 2 - Rejamming against a calling station

CardsChat Poker Hands Converter

In this one we were down to 4 players so the actual bubble of a 9-man. BTN opened, and I was in SB looking down at QTs. We both had around 20BB left, while the other two guys had almost twice this amount. I rejammed, and by doing so I apply a ton of ICM-pressure to him, since if he call and lose, he will almost certainly be the bubble boy.

ICMizer approve this rejam. However the Villain has having none of it, so he called with his A5s, which is absolutely ICM suicide by him. But he got his hold, and I was out of the tournament without cashing. This is another very common thing, we see in micro and low stakes tournaments, even from players, who seem somewhat solid. And needless to say, if the guy wont fold, I should not be jamming any hands, that are not happy when called. And QTs is certainly not happy when called.

Instead I can just call and try to see a flop out of position, and if BB squeeze, or I miss the flop and face a C-bet, I can fold and only lose 1,5BB more. Or I can even just fold this hand and hope, BTN runs into some kind of situation against BB and either bust or lose a big chunk of his stack. In these high ICM situations there is nothing wrong with simply stepping aside and wait for someone else to collide or make a mistake.

Conclusion
I picked these two hands, because I think, they each represent an example of two very common situations, where playing GTO is losing us a lot of money against the opponents, we typically face in micro or low stakes tournaments. Both hands are from 7$ 9-man SnGs on Stars, but the same principles apply near the bubble of a MTT or on the final table.

 

[Collin Moshman]

Interesting hands, thanks for posting them.
I like your call in the first hand. Do you agree that the button's range is capped here? Assuming we can heavily discount KK+, and occasionally he has something random that we crush, I think we have to put it in here.

Second hand -- I've definitely done the same thing jamming semi-bluff type hands over guys who just don't fold

 

[300HPGOD]

I think the last phrase in your post sums it up. GTO is not losing you money but playing against opponents who may not know that they should be folding or making moves they shouldnt be is losing money. Thats not your fault as you know as all you can do is play the best way possible and let everything fall as it may.

As far as the hands go imo, I dont love the AK jam there. The reason why I probably dont do that is with no other info, I think I am going against some sort of pocket pair when the button jams. I would not expect it to be QQ but would expect it to be 77-99 or something like that where the opponent wants to just get all others to fold out. We are still behind this hand and the small jammer in front does not give us enough to make up for flipping to the bad in these spots. Plus factor in the small jammer could have some Ax hand which reduces our equity. If the initial jammers stack was larger and we would be getting more than a slight double up but more to something like a 2.5 or 2.6x increase to our stack then I would be going with the AK here thinking I am at 44% equity give or take but the under current conditions I see 44% equity ish for a little over a double up which is not enough.

Hand 2 I dont like Q10 there since we are not closing the action and when we are right we are gaining 2 BBs from the raiser plus 1 BB from the BB but is that worth jamming this here? We would move into 3rd place but we would not be ahead enough of 4th place to get to play hands any differently in the near future. I prefer folding this here and thinking BB will defend more than likely to a min raise and maybe ICM the crap out of the button in this hand by being aggressive and then we are the beneficiary. Calling with A5 suited as you mentioned there is crazy but it happens especially if that villain has seen you make plays like you did here in the past.

 

[fundiver199]

I like your call in the first hand. Do you agree that the button's range is capped here? Assuming we can heavily discount KK+, and occasionally he has something random that we crush, I think we have to put it in here.

Its a good point, that in the first hand we can probably more or less remove AA and KK from the Villains range, and this does help some. Also if he play in a more normal way, then I move all in myself, and he call, so maybe this was mostly an annoying but unavoidable spot. Even so if his range is 99-QQ, AQ-AK, then ICMizer still has AKo as a fold, which just goes to show, how important ICM is even at this stage of a 9-man.

 

[DaMooca]

Maybe my 3bet was too small?

In fact, this 3bet that you made is quite high, usually out of position you 3bet a little more than 3x.
But as this is a freeroll and most players don't even pay attention to bet values, I think the size was good, unfortunately the flop didn't help.

 

[kkonicke]

I generally agreev with your points. First hand, I think your decision becomes tougher if 4 or 5 people left. With 7 left, you are still far enough from money that I think a call is correct. Hand 2, having a live read on a guy being a calling station is huge here. It happens actually quite often to me in micros where guys just decide they don't want to fold no matter what. That's what this felt like. Super unfortunate for sure on both hands.

 

[I Live Poker]

I agree with your lines of reasoning in general, in hand 1 I don't think you played badly, it is a good call except for the value of ICM as you mentioned. In fact I thought it was a good move by the villain with QQ as he polarizes the perceived range that you have of him by placing him in a range of medium pairs and also dominated hands like ATs +
What range did you give him in the first hand?
and if he 3-bet on this occasion, what range would you give?
I think his jam turns his hand value into a bluff, which is very good.
Hand 2 was no longer regrettable the call of the A5s villain. But however the reversal of the other hand happened, he put you in bluff ranges for having isolated from the sb, I think that just completing the sb to play out of position with this villain is not a good move because you represent nothing but defending with a very wide range. I wonder if the 3-bet fold would not be the best move. Because when vs opens the bet again from sb with 20 bb it represents a lot of strength and also that you want to receive a jam.
What is the range of tribet sb vs bt? and which range of steal sb vs bb?
I suppose the steal range contains a lot more bluffs than tribet.

 

[eetenor]

Want to share two hands from some 9 man SnGs, I played recently, who illustrate some typical situations, where playing "correct" GTO style poker is losing us money in typical micro or low stakes tournaments.

Hand 1 - Facing an oversized jam with AKo

CardsChat Poker Hands Converter

In this hand we were 7 left, and with 3 places paying we were still somewhat far from the money. A short stack went all-in for 2BB, BTN overjammed for 28BB, and I woke up in SB with AKo. I had him covered. I called, because I felt, it was "the correct play", he had QQ, and he won the flip. I plugged the hand into ICMizer, and sure enough I was supposed to call with AKo.

However ICMizer has BTN jamming a very wide range of hands, and in reality this is very unlikely. Its probably more something like 99+ or TT+, AK and maybe AQ. And against that more realistic range calling AKo is losing me money because of ICM.

This situation with someone piling in 28 BB over a 2BB open jam is pretty extreme, and its frankly a very bad play by him. However I think, there are lots of situations, where people dont jam nearly as wide, as they are supposed to, and then overfolding to their jams is a really good way to find edge.

This is especially true, if you have a skill edge on the remaining players, because then you can use 28BB in many other ways, that are better than calling a jam and relying solely on winning at showdown. Its the old saying "finding a better spot", and in this situation even AKo is a very solid fold against, what BTN is most likely actually jamming.

Hand 2 - Rejamming against a calling station

CardsChat Poker Hands Converter

In this one we were down to 4 players so the actual bubble of a 9-man. BTN opened, and I was in SB looking down at QTs. We both had around 20BB left, while the other two guys had almost twice this amount. I rejammed, and by doing so I apply a ton of ICM-pressure to him, since if he call and lose, he will almost certainly be the bubble boy.

ICMizer approve this rejam. However the Villain has having none of it, so he called with his A5s, which is absolutely ICM suicide by him. But he got his hold, and I was out of the tournament without cashing. This is another very common thing, we see in micro and low stakes tournaments, even from players, who seem somewhat solid. And needless to say, if the guy wont fold, I should not be jamming any hands, that are not happy when called. And QTs is certainly not happy when called.

Instead I can just call and try to see a flop out of position, and if BB squeeze, or I miss the flop and face a C-bet, I can fold and only lose 1,5BB more. Or I can even just fold this hand and hope, BTN runs into some kind of situation against BB and either bust or lose a big chunk of his stack. In these high ICM situations there is nothing wrong with simply stepping aside and wait for someone else to collide or make a mistake.

Conclusion
I picked these two hands, because I think, they each represent an example of two very common situations, where playing GTO is losing us a lot of money against the opponents, we typically face in micro or low stakes tournaments. Both hands are from 7$ 9-man SnGs on Stars, but the same principles apply near the bubble of a MTT or on the final table.

Great share as usual.

The point I feel that you made that is the most robust is knowing WHEN ICM plays the most important role in our decision making. As you demonstrated in hand 1 ICM is already the deciding factor at 7 handed in a 9 SNG.

 

[I Live Poker]

Great share as usual.

The point I feel that you made that is the most robust is knowing WHEN ICM plays the most important role in our decision making. As you demonstrated in hand 1 ICM is already the deciding factor at 7 handed in a 9 SNG.

yes it is true but it also works for mtt FT. In fact in Mtt the value of ICM is even more important in a FT due to the high value of chips

 

[erik_lima]

Very interesting hands.

I agree with you. You need to adapt your game against different kind of players.

 

[theANMATOR]

Hand 2 - Rejamming against a calling station

CardsChat Poker Hands Converter

ICMizer approve this rejam.

Great illustrations FD. These are great illustrations on why GTO isn't optimal at my stakes. And also why ICMizer doesn't give optimal results for the situations I encounter on a daily basis.

And one last thing - didn't ya know, suited Aces are the new favorites for calling stations.
You could have shown down only with QQ+ the entire event - and then shoved this hand - and that guy is still calling you 100% of the time.
Such terrible level 1 players we have to deal with.

I river re-jammed today on a 3 card flush - with the board paired with the Ace of the flush suit A/K o - I totally whiffed - but 3bet and cbet when the flush came in on the turn and then the guy donks into me like 1/6th pot so I rejammed - totally knowing this was going to get through.
He called with a suited Ace - 3rd pair Ace kicker. FML level 1 calling station.
Note on that guy updated!

 

[theANMATOR]

I think the last phrase in your post sums it up. GTO is not losing you money but playing against opponents who may not know that they should be folding or making moves they shouldnt be is losing money. Thats not your fault as you know as all you can do is play the best way possible and let everything fall as it may.

Yeah but the thing is HP playing GTO vs the field that has 50% of this type of player is a losing strategy, and will definitely be -EV.
When closing in on the FT at my stakes (micro) - the majority of players left 75% are thinking players, so adjusting to play vs them is optimal.
At the early stages up past late registration, best to just make 2 pair or better and allow the stations to pay the maximum for their whatever pair hands.