$7 NLHE STT: KK turn play

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FastandFurious

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poker stars $6.37+$0.63 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 9 players - View hand 1365163
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP2: t1410 47 BBs
CO: t1490 49.67 BBs
BTN: t1440 48 BBs
Hero (SB): t2120 70.67 BBs
BB: t1885 62.83 BBs
UTG: t1470 49 BBs
UTG+1: t930 31 BBs
UTG+2: t1280 42.67 BBs
MP1: t1475 49.17 BBs

Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is SB with K :heart: K :diamond:
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to t90, 4 folds, Hero raises to t240, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls t150

Flop: (t510) 9 :club: J :spade: Q :diamond: (2 players)
Hero bets t330, UTG+2 calls t330

Turn: (t1170) 8 :spade: (2 players)
Hero ??

What's the best move on the turn?
 
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WiZZiM

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Prob make it around 180 pre, the pot would then be like 300ish and we can play it better.

As played, i'm likely checking this flop, with the intention of C/R all in if he decides to bet. I dunno, i think if we bet this flop we nearly have to go with it on the turn, so either check/call or just shove and expect to get called with worse, but it's a pretty horrible board, so if you have a read he's not stupid, then check/folding's probably ok too.
 
silverfox432

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Shove

let him make the decission
 
the lab man

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Smells like villain has a draw, I'm still shipping with Ks
 
Pascal-lf

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180 pre is too small IMO, I think your sizing is fine.

I probably c/f
 
JamesDaBear

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Shove

let him make the decission

+1

I don't like making a smaller raise out of the blinds. I don't like going for a check-raise on that board either. You might even get him to fold 2 pr with a shove on the turn. Just a puke-worthy spot though. If you want to check/fold, I won't hold it against you.
 
Pascal-lf

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I was randomly thinking about this hand earlier...still not sure which line I like. I think his range is mainly draws, pair + draws, made straights and some 2 pairs given he doesn't raise on that board. KQ,KJ seem way less likely given you've got blockers, TT seems fairly likely, along with AQ/AJ.

Given we might make him fold the occasional low two pair like 98, and we've got outs against quite a lot of stuff, plus we beat AQ/AJ he might hero, I guess I shove.
 
OzExorcist

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Yeah, I have to disagree with this one WiZZiM .. I'm generally not fond of min3betting ..

Small issue but a minraise preflop would be to 150, not 180. Personally I make it something like 210 but I think whatever we make it we can't get away from the fact that effective stack sizes are a little awkward in this one. Plus we have a huge hand so I'm aiming to get stacks in, not go for pot control.

I lead the flop just because it looks really suspect when we three-bet pre then check. If we check-shove there are very few worse hands that can give us action (probably AQ and that's about it) and most of the time we only end up winning a smallish pot. Plus we're giving villain the opportunity to check behind and draw for free. So we can maybe talk about sizing but I'm OK with the flop line.

On the turn I'd really like to have some kind of reads to go with - against some players we'll be behind the majority of the time, against others we'll be getting called by worse loads of the time if we shove.
 
c9h13no3

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Shove

let him make the decission
Quality hand analysis here... Seriously you're giving people advice on what to do with their money. It'd be nice if you knew what you were talking about. Do you want your stock broker just going "awe, screw it, put it in real estate securities"?



I think the decision is essentially made preflop. If you 3-bet to 150, the stack to pot ratio will be 3. We're committed with even 2nd pair. So since we're going to be committed on any flop, I'd like to be able to get all in on the flop. Putting yourself in a spot where you can't fold any flop, but you can't get all the money in on the flop sets your opponent up to have a lot of implied odds.

You're playing a $7 SnG, these aren't the brightest people in the world and they probably love to call too much. Pump it up preflop to give you an SPR of like 1.5-1, so you can just shove the flop. So while Wizzim, you're right that you should be thinking about the stack sizes on the flop, you're just thinking in the wrong direction. Instead of making it smaller to try & deepen stacks out so we can play more streets, make the 3-bet size bigger and try to get committed ASAP.

As played, given the stack sizes I like Wizzim's check/raise line on the flop. Just about everyone got some of this flop, so we'll get a bet out of a decent chunk of hands.

The turn just sucks, but I think its a shove (but its close). I just feel like passive villains at this level are more likely to call here with AQ/KQ than they are to turn AJ into a bluff or slowplay Tx. But it doesn't really matter much, the EV difference is probably pretty small. The real decision points are earlier in the hand on the flop & preflop.

Lastly, it never ceases to amaze me how crazy different the quality of the hand analysis posts are in Cash HA vs. Tournament HA. Seriously, these 1-liner poorly thought out posts help no one. They're not analysis at all.
 
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WiZZiM

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Lastly, it never ceases to amaze me how crazy different the quality of the hand analysis posts are in Cash HA vs. Tournament HA. Seriously, these 1-liner poorly thought out posts help no one. They're not analysis at all.

Thank you, this is what i've been thinking for quite some time/reason why i don't bother posting quality myself unfortunately.

Yeah i think you are also correct, i was a bit tired when i posted the above, it seemed like 240 was a huge overbet, not sure why. I just think with villians stack size, we are usually wanting to get two streets of value from him, so 3bet/c-bet/jam type line. Making it bigger doesn't really affect things that much.
 
c9h13no3

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Something around 240 is obviously fine.
I'd go even bigger. 300 seems about right. That makes a $650 pot with our opponent leaving 980 behind. Easy flop shove.
 
silverfox432

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Quality hand analysis here... Seriously you're giving people advice on what to do with their money. It'd be nice if you knew what you were talking about. Do you want your stock broker just going "awe, screw it, put it in real estate securities"?



I think the decision is essentially made preflop. If you 3-bet to 150, the stack to pot ratio will be 3. We're committed with even 2nd pair. So since we're going to be committed on any flop, I'd like to be able to get all in on the flop. Putting yourself in a spot where you can't fold any flop, but you can't get all the money in on the flop sets your opponent up to have a lot of implied odds.

You're playing a $7 SnG, these aren't the brightest people in the world and they probably love to call too much. Pump it up preflop to give you an SPR of like 1.5-1, so you can just shove the flop. So while Wizzim, you're right that you should be thinking about the stack sizes on the flop, you're just thinking in the wrong direction. Instead of making it smaller to try & deepen stacks out so we can play more streets, make the 3-bet size bigger and try to get committed ASAP.

As played, given the stack sizes I like Wizzim's check/raise line on the flop. Just about everyone got some of this flop, so we'll get a bet out of a decent chunk of hands.

The turn just sucks, but I think its a shove (but its close). I just feel like passive villains at this level are more likely to call here with AQ/KQ than they are to turn AJ into a bluff or slowplay Tx. But it doesn't really matter much, the EV difference is probably pretty small. The real decision points are earlier in the hand on the flop & preflop.

Lastly, it never ceases to amaze me how crazy different the quality of the hand analysis posts are in Cash HA vs. Tournament HA. Seriously, these 1-liner poorly thought out posts help no one. They're not analysis at all.

I'm obviously an idiot who knows nothing good job you have solid members like C9 to protect you from idiots like me :rolleyes:
 
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BigThingWithHolesInIt

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As played, might it still make sense to just shove the flop outright?
 
silverfox432

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Ok here's my thought process

He raises UTG + 2 so were putting him on some kind of hand, he then calls your re - raise, note he doesn't 4 bet you so imo we can rule out AA, (KK as you have kk seems unlitley) QQ so lets think about what range his calling, I would say AQ, AJ, JJ, 10 10, 99, with his stack I think his shoving AK, QQ, JJ and posibly AQ,

He then calls your flop bet so we think his either hit or his on a draw

If we look at stove at this point it still has you marginally ahead and thats assuming we put him on any pp or any broadway cards (which IMO we asume is a braoder range than he actully has)

He now only has ~500 chips left so I'm saying shove and let him make the difficult decission bassed on the fact
  1. Stove has us ahead
  2. It's a $7 game and people don't think
  3. We still have outs
  4. Although short if he wins we still have a shoving stack
  5. If he hasn't hit his draw his commited and we win
  6. You've shown strength though out the hand
  7. Looks like we hit a draw diificult decission for him if his missed
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

42,768 games 0.005 secs 8,553,600 games/sec

Board: 9c Js Qd 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.354% 49.54% 00.81% 21189 346.50 { KK }
Hand 1: 49.646% 48.84% 00.81% 20886 346.50 { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }


---

980,100 games 0.045 secs 21,780,000 games/sec

Board: 9c Js Qd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 68.817% 67.35% 01.47% 660114 14362.50 { KK }
Hand 1: 31.183% 29.72% 01.47% 291261 14362.50 { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }


---

2,065,038,624 games 1.800 secs 1,147,243,680 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 77.871% 77.37% 00.50% 1597740636 10333290.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 22.129% 21.63% 00.50% 446631408 10333290.00 { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
 
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WiZZiM

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Yeah i think 300 may force too many folds, which is why i'm usually going for two streets of value here, raise/bet/jam type lines, so yeah i'm happy with 220 pre/bet flop/jam turn. I think raise to 300, overshove flop forces to many folds from hands we don't want folds from (obviously overbetting this board is great, but if it comes T44 we want to be extracing value from hands that have pretty much no outs against us)

Sure it's only a $7 game, but it's a $7 pokerstars game, the level of play is actually a lot better than it used to be, especially in the turbo games.
 
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WiZZiM

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Ok here's my thought process

He raises UTG + 2 so were putting him on some kind of hand, he then calls your re - raise, note he doesn't 4 bet you so imo we can rule out AA, (KK as you have kk seems unlitley) QQ so lets think about what range his calling, I would say AQ, AJ, JJ, 10 10, 99, with his stack I think his shoving AK, QQ, JJ and posibly AQ,

He then calls your flop bet so we think his either hit or his on a draw

If we look at stove at this point it still has you marginally ahead and thats assuming we put him on any pp or any broadway cards (which IMO we asume is a braoder range than he actully has)

He now only has ~500 chips left so I'm saying shove and let him make the difficult decission bassed on the fact
  1. Stove has us ahead
  2. It's a $7 game and people don't think
  3. We still have outs
  4. Although short if he wins we still have a shoving stack
  5. If he hasn't hit his draw his commited and we win
  6. You've shown strength though out the hand
  7. Looks like we hit a draw diificult decission for him if his missed
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
It's fine to make assumptions about his range, but do you actually play the $7 non turbo games? Each and every level plays differantly, so assigning ranges based on things you may not actually know isn't very smart. Yes it's early position, but you can't simply rule out that villian won't just call prefflop to the 3bet with AA-QQ and that he shoves AK, it just isn't very realistic to just rule them out as they are entirly possible.

OP may actually have some reads on this player which obviously help us make assumptions on his range.

Yes it's a $7 game, but pokerstars has easily the best player pool of regulars online, so it could still be a tough game, you really don't know. It may not be as true in the non turbos, but i can tell you right now that the $7 turbo games are actually quite tough to beat.

Stove really doesn't tell us much, we also have to factor in a little thing called ICM, basically we have to be a little farther ahead than normal. It's not a big deal, but good to get in the habit of using other equity based programs. "ICM Explorer" is a good free one.

Oh and as C9 mentions, our real decision is not the turn, it's before then, we're committed here no matter what...
 
c9h13no3

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220 vs. 300 is really gonna chop out a significant portion of his range? Because 300 does two good things for us: allow us to ship the flop and gets more money in pre. I'll lose some of his more speculative hands in order to pretty much make my decisions super easy.

And the real problem with a line where we get it in on the turn is that there aren't very many flops/turns we can fold. It puts us in nasty spots (like this one) where we're committed, but we're forced into a spot that could be big time -EV or +EV and its hard to tell the difference.

I realize that you want to milk the maximum out of him, but quite often that means getting his stack in as fast as possible. And 3-betting bigger almost certainly allows us to win the max, because most flops we're just going to c-bet and he's going to fold (at least ~55% or so if this plays like a cash game).

In general, people's ranges are inelastic for the most part. Its rare that bet sizing is going to make a huge difference in what their calling/raising/folding range is. Now min-raising to 180 is a decent line if it gets calls from 100% of his range, but if he calls 300 with 60% of his range then we've earned the same amount of money. Plus we have the strategic benefit of denying implied odds/getting more in with the nuts, ect. And I don't think the difference of 180 vs. 300 causes a 40% difference in his range.
 
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OzExorcist

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I think raise to 300, overshove flop forces to many folds from hands we don't want folds from (obviously overbetting this board is great, but if it comes T44 we want to be extracing value from hands that have pretty much no outs against us)

What if we make it 300 preflop then bet around 500 on the flop instead of overbet shoving? Hands that were calling the overbet shove obv still get it in with us since we've bet just over half villain's remaining stack plus we probably get action from a few more marginal hands that hope they've got some fold equity against us.

For the most part I think we're just tinkering around the edges though - reality at this early stage is either villain has a big hand of his own and is willing to trade stacks with us or he doesn't and we won't get much value at all (unless he outflops us, in which case it'll be him getting value). I don't think there's much we can do with bet sizing to change that, so we may as well just go the route that makes it easiest to get stacks in the times when they're holding the big hand.
 
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str8 draw here for villain,i would go all in there
 
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BigThingWithHolesInIt

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What hands that bet/call pre and then flat this flop are still drawing to a straight on this turn?

I'd opt to check/jam flop. Unless reads suggest otherwise I'll assume villain will jump at the chance to take back the initiative more often than suspect we are slowplaying something. Plus if he checks back we can just bet/fold an awful turn like this one.

I really enjoyed reading the discussion on how much to raise pre.
 
spunka

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As the hand stands Villan has to have a hand as he calls both pre flop and flop raise, our real problem here is that we're oop hands like this are always very hard to play oop, so we have to choose the safe route or the risk, the safe were we check or try and check it down, I think I lean towards this here especially as it is early in the tournament and we still have plenty of chips, if he then chooses to shove I would fold it.
The villan is pot commited here having almost 50% of he's stack in, so this spot is very read depending if he's very aggresive I might call / shove / chkraise if he has been playing sensible all along I would muck it.
But the trouble in this hand, at this point, is that we're oop, this is a hand in a 7$ I would play strongly and fast, so I won't wind up in a bad spot like this one. Hence a big preflop raise and a shove on the flop if no Ace turns up.
So this boils down to one thing and one of the most crusial things in poker, we are in a bad position and we míght have to pay for that.
 
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