$7 NLHE STT: ICM Spot, fold or call?

[JohnBoyWWFC]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 23/19/4.5

I feel that I can fold this a fair amount and wait for one of the other two stacks to bust, but he's been shoving a lot and very wide. Are we so far ahead of his range that we can profitably call here?

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, 7 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds 25 Ante (4 handed) - PokerStars Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

UTG (t1327)
Button (t7441)
SB (t1640)
Hero (BB) (t3092)

Hero's M: 7.73

Preflop: Hero is BB with A

, Q

1 fold, Button bets t7416 (All-In), 1 fold,
Hero????

 

[BluffYou123]

Kinda shitty spot but I'm calling. We're ahead of alot of his range and in a good spot to get 1st if we win this pot. Don't hate a fold either.

 

[Jillychemung]

Ran it thru ICM Explorer - I think it's saying you need a pretty big margin to call off here.

Fold: 2867 chips, 0.2667, SD: $14.04
Win: 6334 chips, 0.3657
Lose: 0 chips, 0
Tie: 3167 chips, 0.2779

equity needed: 72.92%
Chip odds: 45.26%
Risk premium: 27.65%
Chips gained by marginal call: 1751.62.
Ties count as 75.99% of a win.
SD of marginal call: $18.18.

-----------------------
Chips (caller): 3092
Equity: 0.272641 = $24.54 ($10 tournament of 9 players)
Standard deviation: 0.157124, $14.14
Place: Probability and equity from incremental prize.
1: 22.9% $4.12
2: 33.79% $5.1
3: 28.37% $15.31
4: 14.93% $0

 

[WiZZiM]

ez fold

 

[JohnBoyWWFC]

We only calling here with QQ+? KK+?

 

[Big_Rudy]

We only calling here with QQ+? KK+?

Yeah, I'm calling pretty tight here, if I'm calliing at all. Too lazy to run it through a calc, but I'd say QQ is the absolute bottom of my calling range here. Maybe not even then. I'd be way more comfortable with KK+, obv.

 

[WiZZiM]

Probably more like JJ+ maybe even 10's, since he is likely so wide and we simply cannot let him get away with blindly raping the table, it doesn't fare well for us in future blind situations..

ICM hates calling off huge stacks with unpaired hands. Basically we're never as far ahead as we like to think, unless our opponant is going to be shoving mainly stuff we dominate (which we don't know). So we're likely going to be in a lot of spots where we are only 60% to win. Since we have two stacks that are short and were going up against the only guy who can knock us out. We can include AK to our range if we think villian shoves a lot of Ax and broadway/pairs and very little garbage, but once the range gets really wide, we have to fold our AK as funny as that sounds.

Adding to that, even if we win, we're still only just a chip leader, it won't even guarantee us getting into the money.

I could add a bunch of other reasons, but basically we're not looking to fight the CL here, mainly just stay out of his way, push on the other two when possible and let the two short stacks fight it out, while not blinding ourselves out of the tournament.

 

[Big_Rudy]

Probably more like JJ+ maybe even 10's, since he is likely so wide and we simply cannot let him get away with blindly raping the table, it doesn't fare well for us in future blind situations..

ICM hates calling off huge stacks with unpaired hands. Basically we're never as far ahead as we like to think, unless our opponant is going to be shoving mainly stuff we dominate (which we don't know). So we're likely going to be in a lot of spots where we are only 60% to win. Since we have two stacks that are short and were going up against the only guy who can knock us out. We can include AK to our range if we think villian shoves a lot of Ax and broadway/pairs and very little garbage, but once the range gets really wide, we have to fold our AK as funny as that sounds.

Adding to that, even if we win, we're still only just a chip leader, it won't even guarantee us getting into the money.

I could add a bunch of other reasons, but basically we're not looking to fight the CL here, mainly just stay out of his way, push on the other two when possible and let the two short stacks fight it out, while not blinding ourselves out of the tournament.

Really? You'd call as wide as that here? You're prolly right if I'd quit being so lazy and check it, but that just seems pretty wide to me. Especially 10s I'd think you'd find yourself flipping with a large part of his range and only somewhat ahead of another good chunk of his range as well..... Just my opinion.

 

[BlueNowhere]

yea snap folding. I wouldn't think calling with 10's would be good but JJ+ seems reasonable (haven't ran it through a calc or anything mind).

 

[WiZZiM]

10's might be a bit loose, but it really depends on what type of range villian shoves, if we don't know then i'd just tighten my range.

Wiz probably says KK or QQ+ but i'm calling wider as it can't take into account future blind situations, and also i hate letting people run the table over, it's a very -EV situation for us to be in. It's all well and good to just wait until one of the short stack blinds out... but we have to do it while maintaining our chip position. Also one false move by us lands us in the same position as the two shortstackers and believe me, it happens often so we can't really pass up too many spots by playing too tight on the bubble.

It's a fine line between spewing chips and $ev, and letting the blinds go through you and blinding out, especially when there is aggression or "good" players at your table.

 

[BlueNowhere]

Well since it is only $7's I'm expecting villian to not be shoving as wide as he should be which is my reasoning for having like JJ+ instead of TT+. I'd agree with calling TT if you know villian is shoving really wide or with a lot of stuff tens crush.

 

[baudib1]

LOL, ez fold.